This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- United Nations celebrates M23 rebel militia defeat in Congo
- New Greece bailout crisis approaching over $2.7 billion deficit
- How do you entertain a bored pharaoh?
United Nations celebrates M23 rebel militia defeat in Congo
Residents cheer as Congolese soldiers pass through after defeating M23 rebels (AP)
United Nations and African officials are celebrating the victory bythe army of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC or DR Congo) overthe M23 militia and rebel group in eastern DRC. Officials are hopefulthat this will finally bring peace to eastern DRC, Burundi, Rwanda, andUganda for the first time since the end of the horrific Rwandan genocide of 1994.
In 1994, there were two ethnic groups in Rwanda — the Hutus and theTutsis. They had lived together for decades, had intermarried, hadtheir kids play games with each other, and so forth. Then one day, aHutu leader announced over the radio, “Cut down the tall trees.” Theradio announcement, which was heard all over the country, was some sortof visceral signal. On cue, the Hutus erupted in violence, picking up machetes, murdering, dismembering, and raping the Tutsis. Close to a millionTutsis were tortured, raped, and murdered in a three month period. The
In the generational Recovery era that followed this crisis civil war,the Tutsis took control of Rwanda’s government, and many Hutus fled toborder regions in eastern DRC, where refugee camps were set up. TheHutu leaders of the 1994 genocide formed a group of armed militiascalled the FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda),which began conducting terrorist attacks on civilians, especiallyTutsi civilians, living in eastern DRC.
There were Tutsi militias opposing the FDLR, and the most importantrecent one was the M23, named after an abortive March 23, 2009, peaceagreement. M23 has also been supported by the current government ofRwanda, who deny that they’re supporting M23, but who also say thatthey fear the FDLR plans to invade Rwanda again and complete thegenocide.
With Wednesday’s victory by the DRC army over M23, it is hoped thatthere will finally be peace between the FDLR and M23, and between theHutus and the Tutsis, but Generational Dynamics predicts that’s notgoing to happen. Rwanda is just now at the beginning of agenerational Awakening era, following the end of the 1994 civil war.The typical civil war pattern is that the two sides start withlow-level violence, usually during the Awakening era, and then gothrough warring periods alternating with periods of peace. Eachwarring period is more violent than the previous one until there is amassive new genocidal civil war, usually 55-65 years after the end ofthe previous one.
So the celebrations of victory are expected to be short lived. TheM23 were defeated in their principal stronghold, but they didn’tdisappear in a puff of smoke. The towns and villages they controlledare now free, and the villagers are happy not to face the daily abuseof M23. But the M23 Tutsi rebels themselves simply ran away into theforest or into Uganda, until the next opportunity to regroup, rearm,and fight again. A new round of fighting between Hutus and Tutsiswill not be far off. BD Live (S. Africa) and AP
New Greece bailout crisis approaching over $2.7 billion deficit
There are mixed reports about whether representatives of the “Troika”of organizations bailing out Greece — the European Commission (EC),the European Central Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund(IMF) — have canceled their long-scheduled visit to Athens next Tuesday since Greece has not yet met all the austerity commitmentsit’s previously made to qualify for the 240 billion eurobailout already pledged.
We’ve mentioned several times in the last few months that Greece hasnot laid off enough public employees or sold off enough public assetsto cover the expected new debts that will arise in 2014. Well, thenit was just a news story, but now it’s an approaching crisis. Withoutlaying off more workers or selling more assets, Greece will be 2billion euros ($2.7 billion) short next year. That money will have tobe made up either by more austerity or by a new bailout. The Germansare particularly opposed to a new bailout. On the other hand, Greecealready has a 28% unemployment rate, so further layoffs don’t seemlike a good idea. Unless one side or the other backs down ina big way, we’re getting close to another one of those nail-bitingweekends. Kathimerini and Reuters
How do you entertain a bored pharaoh?
Question: “How do you entertain a bored pharaoh?”
Answer: “You sail a boatload of young women dressed only in fishingnets down the Nile and urge the pharaoh to go catch a fish.”
— A joke from 1600 BC Egypt, said to be about King Snofru. Reuters
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,Rwanda, Hutus, Tutsis, FDLR, M23,Greece, troika, EU, IMF, ECB, Egypt, King Snofru