This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- 25,000 man ‘White Army’ militia marches in South Sudan
- Thousands try to flee violence in Central African Republic
25,000 man ‘White Army’ militia marches in South Sudan
These are Chadians fleeing the Central African Republic, heading back to Chad. In South Sudan, over 100,000 have fled to U.N. compounds. (BBC)
There is a very dramatic scene taking place in South Sudan, as an armyof 25,000 young men, with ghostly demeanors from being covered withwhite ash to fend off bug bites, is marching toward the provincialcapital of Bor. They’re from the Nuer tribe, hoping to repeat theaccomplishment of their fathers, when a similar “White Army” marchedinto Bor in 1991 and massacred the people of the Dinka tribe. I’msure their minds are filled with the stories that their fathers toldof the glories of those days, having fun slaughtering the men, rapingthe women, and dismembering both.
I would hate to underestimate the power of 25,000 young men lustingfor a fight, and it’s quite possible that the worst will happen, butthis has all the earmarks of an impending debacle for the White Army.These 25,000 young men are almost all untrained civilians in agenerational Awakening era when there is little desire for anotherwar. ( “19-Dec-13 World View — U.S. and Britain evacuate citizens from South Sudan as unrest spreads”) Another big difference with 1991 is that the city ofBor is ready for them, and will be prepared not only to defend but toinflict surprise counterattacks.
Whatever happens in Bor, there’s still plenty of ongoing violence inSouth Sudan. Much of the international interest is in the oil fields,which are contested by the Nuer and Dinka tribes. If they’re shutdown, then the global price of oil would increase. There’s also thepossibility of outside involvement. Nuer leaders are claiming thatjet fighters from Uganda are entering South Sudan and bombing Nuerpositions.
Over 100,000 people have fled their homes and are hiding out in UnitedNations compounds. It is feared that the White Army will attack oneof the compounds, which are not well defended. The U.N. is requesting$166 million in aid from other countries. Sudan Tribuneand VOA and NPR
Thousands try to flee violence in Central African Republic
Violence between the Christians and the Muslims has been growing sinceMarch, when Muslim Seleka rebels ousted the Christian presidentFrancois Bozize, and proceeded to attack the Christians. TheChristians began revenge attacks, leading thousands of Muslim Chadiansto flee the country and return to Chad. France has deployed 1,600soldiers there as peacekeepers, to supplement 4,000 troops from theAfrican Union.
The media often portray the situations in South Sudan and CAR as beingparallel — two countries facing sectarian/tribal conflicts, withpeacekeepers sent in to help bring about a so-called “politicalsolution.” However, what’s really interesting is to look at thedifferences between the two situations.
South Sudan has oil, and so the U.N. Security Council has passed aresolution authorizing almost 15,000 peacekeepers to enter thecountry. China and Russia approved this resolution, which isdifferent behavior than they have with Syria, where their hero, thegenocidal monster Bashar al-Assad, bombs neighborhoods where innocentpeople are living, launches missiles into children’s dormitories andbedrooms, and authorizes rapes, tortures and mutilations of innocentwomen and children on a large scale. But South Sudan is different,especially for China, which has a major oil deal with South Sudan.
CAR has no oil, and so France is pretty much on its own, though with alittle logistical help from the United States. France would love tohave some help from another European country, but no one seemsinterested.
But the really important difference between the two countries isgenerational. South Sudan is in a generational Awakening era. Thismeans that there’ll be low-level violence and tribal conflict, but nomajor tribal or ethnic wars that slaughter huge masses of people.
But CAR’s last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-WaraRebellion (“War of the Hoe Handle”), targeting the Frenchcolonialists. So the people of CAR have no personal memories of thehorrors of their last generational crisis war. CAR is in agenerational Crisis era, and a full-scale bloody war like the 1994 warin Rwanda is quite possible and not unlikely, which is not the casefor South Sudan. BBC and AFP
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Sudan, White Army, Nuer, Dinka, Bor,Central African Republic, Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,Chad, France, Rwanda
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