World View: Iran Says It's Not Dismantling Any Nuclear Components

This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine anti-government protesters issue ultimatum after five are killed
• Iran says it’s not dismantling any nuclear components
• China says that war with Japan is inevitable because they hate each other

Ukraine anti-government protesters issue ultimatum after five are killed

Protester throws Molotov cocktail on Wednesday (CNN)

Two months of anti-government protesters in Ukraine, mostly peacefulthough strewn with some bursts of violence, are now close to becominga war with the police, as protesters hurl stones and Molotovcocktails, and police respond with tear gas, stun grenades, and rubberbullets, killing five protesters in the first fatalities of theprotests.

The protests were originally triggered when President ViktorYanukovych did a 180 degree flip-flop in November and suddenly refusedto sign a trade agreement with the European Union, as he had promisedto do, choosing instead to accept a $15 billion bailout from Russia inreturn for closer ties. The protests became significantly moreviolent last week, after passage of new laws limiting the right toprotests in Ukraine, according to opposition leader Vitali Klitschko,and a former world boxing champion.

There were several hours of negotiations on Wednesday, but accordingto Klitschko he ended them with an ultimatum:

“We did not receive any answers. When we talked aboutcanceling the new laws that make each of us here a criminal, weheard that maybe this can be a point of negotiations. I will bewith the people. If I have to fight, I will fight. If I have to gounder bullets, I will. I will stand up for the people, because Iwant to live in a different country.

If Yanukovych does not make concessions, then tomorrow (Thursday)we will go on the attack.” “

Yanukovych said the negotiations accomplished nothing, and thegovernment gave security forces extra powers, including firing watercannon against the protesters despite the freezing temperatures.

January 22 is Ukraine’s annual “day of national unity,” celebratingthe unification of western and eastern Ukraine in an attempt atindependence in 1919 during the Bolshevik Revolution. However,Ukraine remains today two essentially different countries, with twodistinctly different ethnic groups. The majority of the populationare ethnic Ukrainians, occupying most of the country, in the westernpart of Ukraine. The minority group are ethnic Russians, occupyingthe east and south, descendants of ethnic Russians who were sent thereby Stalin after World War II in order to “Russify” Ukraine. CNN and AFP

Iran says it’s not dismantling any nuclear components

Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif directly contradicted theWhite House on the terms of the nuclear deal that was signed lastNovember.

According to the White House “Fact Sheet: First Step UnderstandingsRegarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program”:

Iran has committed to halt enrichment above 5%:

Halt all enrichment above 5% and dismantle the technicalconnections required to enrich above 5%.”

But according to Zarif:

“The White House version both underplays theconcessions and overplays Iranian commitments.

The White House tries to portray it as basically a dismantling ofIran’s nuclear program. That is the word they use time and again.If you find a single, a single word, that even closely resemblesdismantling or could be defined as dismantling in the entire text,then I would take back my comment.

[W]e are not dismantling any centrifuges, we’re not dismantlingany equipment, we’re simply not producing, not enriching over5%.”

White House and CNN

China says that war with Japan is inevitable because they hate each other

The Davos conference in Switzerland is discussing more than justglobal finance. One Chinese professional attending the conference,who, according to conference rules, shall not be named, said that warbetween China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands is inevitablebecause China and Japan increasingly hate each other.

He outlined China’s plans for a “surgical invasion”:

• Make a limited strike on the island, essentially just send a naval force to plant a flag.
• The strike would have great symbolic value, demonstrating to China, Japan, and the rest of the world who was boss.
• But it would not be so egregious that it would force a military response by either Japan or America.

This outline is credible because it’s very similar to the method usedby China to seize the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines in 2012,and it’s similar to reports of plans for China’s military to seize oneisland after another in the South China Sea. ( “16-Jan-14 World View — China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines”)

It’s quite possible that the Chinese really believe that this ideawill work, since they’re as far into fantasy land as Washington is.This world is deep into a generational Crisis era, which ischaracterized by surging nationalism in all countries. China mightget away with snatching one island this way, just as Hitler got awaywith snatching the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia in 1938, afterpromising “Peace in our time.” But the next such attempt wouldtrigger extremely high nationalism in both America and Japan, andwould certainly lead to a military confrontation that could spiral outof control.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is also at the Davos conference, andhe says that the current tension between Japan and China is similar tothe situation between Britain and Germany, prior to World War I. Hesaid that Britain and Germany – like China and Japan – had a strongtrading relationship. But in 1914, this had not prevented strategictensions leading to the outbreak of conflict.

Abe said that China’s rapidly growing military spending is a majorsource of instability in the region. Between 1908 and 1913, Europeanpowers increased military spending by 50% after Germany began buildinga navy to rival Britain’s. Business Insider and Business Insider

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych,Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif,China, Japan, Senkaku, Diaoyu, Shinzo Abe
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