This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Ukraine anti-government protests spread into the east
- U.N. Security Council approves EU troops for Central African Republic
- Syria’s ‘peace conference’ proceeds as total farce
- China’s military moves to seize Malaysia’s James Shoal
Ukraine anti-government protests spread into the east
Up until now, the anti-government protests have been in the west,which is populated by Ukrainian-speaking ethnic Ukrainians demandingthe resignation of president Viktor Yanukovych, who is from the east,which is comprised mostly of Russian-speaking ethnic Russians.However, now the protests are spreading into a few Russian-speakingcities in the east, indicating that Yanukovych may be losing controlof the situation. In an attempt to head off further erosion of hiscredibility, he’s accepted the resignation of the prime ministerMykola Azarov and all the ministers in his cabinet, something thatwould have been unthinkable just two weeks ago. These resignationscame shortly after the parliament voted to repeal the “anti-protest”law that had triggered a surge in violence two weeks ago.
Despite the spread to a few cities in the east, the protests do notappear to be spiraling into a larger conflict between Ukrainians andRussians. Right now the protests are almost purely political and arebeing spurred by a few activists. It doesn’t appear that that’s goingto change soon. BBC and Telegraph (London)
U.N. Security Council approves EU troops for Central African Republic
Fearing that the the violence between Muslims and Christians in theCentral African Republic might spiral out of control into a full-scalegenocidal civil war like the one between the Hutus and the Tutsis inRwanda in 1994, the United Nations Security Council unanimously voted Tuesday to permit the European Union to supply 500peacekeeping troops to the CAR, joining 1,600 French troops and 5,000African Union troops already there.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, CAR is deep into ageneration Crisis era, and the chances of a genocidal explosion areall but certain. CAR’s last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931Kongo-Wara Rebellion (“War of the Hoe Handle”), targeting the Frenchcolonialists. In any event, the addition of another 500 peacekeepingtroops to the thousands already there is unlikely to prevent what iscoming anyway. United Nations and Reuters
Syria’s ‘peace conference’ proceeds as total farce
The “Geneva-II” meetings are progressing in Switzerland this week,with the representatives of the regime of Syria’s president Basharal-Assad facing off against the representatives of the oppositionrebels. The mainstream media is oohing and ahhing about how thesemeetings are a big step forward. The meetings are moderated byLakhdar Brahimi, the Special Envoy appointed by the UN and the ArabLeague.
Here’s how these meetings go: In the mornings, both sides are in thesame room with Brahimi. The two sides are in the same room, but theydon’t talk to each other. Each of them talks only to Brahimi. Thepurpose of the morning sessions is to discuss the agenda for theafternoon sessions. In the afternoon sessions, the two sides are indifferent rooms, and Brahimi goes back and forth between the rooms,like Henry Kissinger’s “shuttle diplomacy.”
As we said the other day, al-Assad has no reason to compromise onanything. He’s used sarin gas on his own people, he uses “industrialstrength” torture on people, and every day he uses barrel bombs on hisown people, which are designed to kill, maim, and torture as manypeople as possible, especially women and children. Russia supplies anunlimited number of heavy weapons for Assad to use to continue hispsychopathic murder. Al-Assad will probably win the war after he’skilled off a few million more of his people, so why should he botherto compromise?
As an example of what a waste of time these Geneva meetings are, youneed only look at what the mainstream media are callingboth sides are in the same room, though they rarely mention that thetwo sides never actually talk to each other.
The really, really big breakthrough was an agreement to allow some2,500 women and children to leave the city of Homs, where they aretrapped by all the bombing. I was surprised that Assad agreed to thisbecause I assume that he gets sexual pleasure out of bombing women andchildren. Yet on Sunday he agreed to it.
Then on Tuesday, the al-Assad regime announced that all themilitias (meaning all the men) would have to leave the city first, andthen he would allow the women and children to leave. So, as usual,the al-Assad regime was just lying when it agreed to let the womenand children leave. As usual, al-Assad and the Russians made completefools of the mainstream media and the Western politicians.
These meetings are supposed to end on Friday, but Tuesday afternoon’ssession was called off because the two sides are completelydeadlocked. Let’s watch and see if there are any further
China’s military moves to seize Malaysia’s James Shoal
China has sent three armed ships to patrol the region around JamesShoal in waters belonging to Malaysia that China has indicated in thepast that it plans to seize. The shoal is named Zengmu Reef by theChinese. According to Xinhua:
During the ceremony held in the Zengmu Reef area,soldiers and officers aboard swore an oath of determination tosafeguard the country’s sovereignty and maritime interests.
[The fleet commander] urged soldiers and officers to always beprepared to fight, improve combat capabilities and lead the forcesto help build the country into a maritime power.
If looking at a map makes you think that James Shoal isawfully far away from China to be claiming it, then you would beright.
China is claiming vast areas of the South China Sea, including regionsthat that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia,Indonesia, and the Philippines, and has threatened to use its vastmilitary power to threaten and subdue any neighboring nation thatdisobeys its orders. This comes just a few days after China escalated tensions by demanding that any foreign fishing vessel ask permissionfrom China’s military before fishing in the South China Sea.
China’s media have reported a strategy of seizing one island afteranother, in each case without expecting any actual militaryconfrontation because of its vast military power. China would becounting on the fact that this one-by-one approach would allow gradualseizure of the entire region without triggering a military responsefrom the United States. As weeks go by, it seems that China isbecoming more and more bellicose and militaristic. GenerationalDynamics predicts that China is rapidly and aggressively preparing forpreemptive war against the United States and is developing avariety of missile systems with no other purpose than to strikeAmerican cities, aircraft carriers, and military installations.Malaysia Chronicle and Reuters