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World View: Ukraine Chaos Raises Fears of Similar Violence in Russia

World View: Ukraine Chaos Raises Fears of Similar Violence in Russia

This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com:

  • Ukraine police storm protest camp in Kiev after bloody Tuesday
  • Ukraine chaos raising the worst anxieties among Russia’s nationalists
  • Thailand police storm protest camp in Bangkok, leaving four dead

Ukraine police storm protest camp in Kiev after bloody Tuesday

In Ukraine, 18 people were killed and hundreds injured, both policeofficers and protesters, in bloody clashes Tuesday with anti-government protesters in central Kiev, which they have beenoccupying for months. The protesters are demanding that pro-RussianPresident Viktor Yanukovich resign and allow a pro-Europeangovernment take his place. The protesters took an even more bitterpolitical turn on Tuesday as Russia’s president Vladimir Putin provided a$2 billion loan to the President, to strengthen his politicalposition.

The Kiev protests are a clash between two ethnic groups: the majority, Ukrainian-speaking ethnic Ukrainians who occupy the western part ofthe country, and the minority, Russian-speaking ethnic Russians livingin the east. In the “Orange Revolution” of 2003, the samepresident Yanukovich was forced to step down from office and wasreplaced in new elections by someone more agreeable to the ethnicUkrainians. Yanukovich won reelection in 2010, and is nowthreatened by a new “Orange Revolution.”

At the time of this writing on Tuesday evening ET, security police arecharging protesters in central Kiev and meeting resistance. Theclashes have been mostly confined to central Kiev so far, but thereare growing fears that the fighting could spread and turn into afull-fledged civil war – which is not impossible, since Ukraine is ina generational Crisis era. AFP and LA Times

Ukraine chaos raising the worst anxieties among Russia’s nationalists

There is still a great deal of concern about what Russia is going todo if things don’t go its way in Ukraine. It’s widely believed thatany military action by Russia in Ukraine is “on hold” for the durationof the Sochi Olympics, and the fears are of what Russia might do oncethe Olympics games have ended.

Russian nationalists are expressing a great deal of anxiety about theevents in Ukraine because they’re afraid of similar anti-governmentprotests in Russia. Aleksandr Samsonov, a well-known commentator,says that Russians should be under no illusions about the threat theyface from the chaos into which Ukraine is rapidly sinking. He arguesthat what is going on threatens to return Europe to the situation ofthe 1930s, with the “rebirth” of Russophobic, fascist, and neo-Naziideology in Ukraine and its importation into North Caucasian nationalistsand jihadists. He says that Joseph Stalin was prepared and able torepulse these threats, but it is not clear that Russia could do socurrently – or that Moscow even recognizes that “the union of liberals,national separatists, and Islamists is a terrible threat,” one thatcould lead to the spilling of “rivers of blood” in Russia. Russiansociety needs to be mobilized against this threat, he says. Jamestown

Thailand police storm protest camp in Bangkok, leaving four dead

In Thailand, four people were killed and 64 injured, both policeofficers and protesters, when police tried on Tuesday to clearanti-government protesters from central Bangkok, which they have beenoccupying for months. The protesters are demanding that primeminister Yingluck Shinawatra resign and allow the protesters toappoint an unelected “People’s Council” that will rule in place of theelected government. The protesters took an even more bitter politicalturn on Tuesday as the country’s anti-corruption commission filedcharges against the Prime Minister.

The Bangkok protests are a clash between two ethnic groups: theminority, and the “red shirt,” dark-skinned, Thai-Thaiwho do most of the menial labor, and who continue to support Yingluck’s Pheu Thai political party. Because of the Thai-Thaimajority, the Pheu Thai have won the last five elections and cancontinue to do so. That’s why the elite Thai-Chinese anti-governmentprotesters want to replace the elected government with their ownPeople’s Council that they can control.

The situations in Thailand and Ukraine appear to be similar, but fromthe point of view of Generational Dynamics, they’re very different. Inparticular, unlike Ukraine, Thailand is in a generational Awakeningera, and so a civil war in Thailand is literally impossible, whileit’s quite possible in Ukraine. What happens during an Awakening erais that there are periods of conflict, like you see today in Thailand,alternating with “peace agreements” that never last. Each period ofconflict is worse than the previous one, until a full-fledged civilwar begins several decades later. So Thailand is nowhere close to acivil war, but Ukraine might be. CNN

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