This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com:
- Central African Republic peacekeepers call Christians ‘enemy combatants’
- Iran’s Supreme Leader fears Great Islamic Revolution will be forgotten
- John Kerry embraces Iran’s Supreme Leader fatwa scam
Central African Republic peacekeepers call Christians ‘enemy combatants’
The 6,000-man African Union peacekeeping force, known by its acronymMisca, has designated the Christian “anti-balaka” militias in CentralAfrican Republic as “terrorists” and “enemy combatants,” following awave of anti-balaka attacks on Misca soldiers and the killing onMonday of a Misca peacekeeping soldier from the Republic of Congo.
According to a Misca statement: “Henceforth, MISCA considers anti-balakas asterrorists and enemy combatants, and they shall be treatedaccordingly.”
Although 2,000 French soldiers and 6,000 Misca soldiers have beendeployed as peacekeepers, the violence in Central African Republic(CAR) has not been quelled. In fact, as I’ve been saying formonths, this is spiraling into a full-scale generational crisiswar that will be enveloped by tribal massacres on a massivescale.
Muslim Seleka militias began killing Christians last year, after acoup by Muslim leader Michel Djotodia. There were predictions lastyear of revenge by Christians. The international community forcedDjotodia to step down in January, in the hope that his doing so wouldquiesce the Christians, but that hope was in vain.
As I’ve explained, CAR’s last generational crisis war was the1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion (“War of the Hoe Handle”), which was avery long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisisera, where a new crisis war is increasingly likely.
The Kongo-Wara rebellion was nominally an uprising against the Frenchcolonialists, but it also had it share of the same kind of tribalviolence that we are seeing today. After a crisis war like that ends,the survivors on both sides look back in horror at the acts that wereperpetrated on both sides, and vow to devote the rest of their livesto making sure that nothing like that happens to their children orgrandchildren. They succeed at that, but once the survivors havepassed away, so that there’s no one left with a personal memory of thelast crisis war, then there’s nothing to stop a new crisis war fromstarting, and that’s what’s happening now. French and African Unionpeacekeepers will try desperately to put a lid on it, but nothing willstop it now.
In fact, young people in CAR today certainly have heard of theKongo-Wara war, just as Americans have heard of WW II. But what dothey know? Nobody’s told them about the its horrors. What theMuslims know is that their great-grandfathers were war heroes becausethey killed thousands of French and Christians, while the Christianshave heard that their great-grandfathers were even bigger heroes,because they slaughtered even more Muslims. Now all of them wantto be new generations of heroes.
If the Misca peacekeepers are now going to treat the Christians asenemy combatants, then this crisis war will be moving to the nextstage. It will no longer be just CAR residents versus CAR residents.It will also be a war between CAR residents and soldiers from othernations. I have not seen any reports about the role of the French peacekeepersin this declaration of enemy combatants, but as the situationdeteriorates it would not be surprising to see the French embroiled inthe war as well. AFP and BBC and Reuters
Iran’s Supreme Leader fears Great Islamic Revolution will be forgotten
Iran’s last generational crisis war was the 1979 Great IslamicRevolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war, that climaxed in 1987 withSaddam Hussein’s use of chemical weapons. These crisis wars are atthe heart of generational theory, because the traumatized generationsof survivors of these wars create austere rules and institutions tokeep the same thing from happening to their children andgrandchildren. As the younger generations come of age, they rebelagainst this austerity, creating a “generation gap” and a generationalAwakening era, as happened in America in the 1960s.
Iran is going through an Awakening era today, and the Supreme LeaderAyatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei is becoming panicked because youngergenerations don’t appreciate the sacrifices that his generation had tomake. In a speech to young people earlier this week, Khamenei saidthat “The memory of the Sacred Defense era must be kept alive” andwarned against the efforts of ‘some’ who seek to erase the war’svalues and historical memory:
The front of the enemies of the Islamic system,meaning these European governments and the American government,encouraged Saddam’s Ba’athist regime to continue the war byproviding him advanced capabilities and equipment. This mattercaused the Imposed War to last for eight years.
But God almighty showed his hand of power and crushed the mouthsof the enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the iron fistof divine tradition and rubbed their noses to the dirt.
The greatest lesson of the Islamic Revolution to the Iraniannation was that the path of achieving high ideals is fighting,sacrificing and persevering for these ideals.
Those who wish ill for the Iranian nation and also some [others]are seeking to erase from memory the sacrifices of the SacredDefense era and its prominent figures. On this basis, they aremaking efforts to prescript the sacrifices of the Sacred Defenseand the path that the great Imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,Khamenei’s predecessor] the wise and sage servant of God, haddetermined.
Khamenei is expressing the same frustrations and the same kinds ofwarnings that Presidents Johnson and Nixon expressed during America’sAwakening era, and were the victims of violent protests by youngpeople. These Awakening era political battles are almost always(though not always) won by young people because the older generationsdie off. AEI Iran Tracker
John Kerry embraces Iran’s Supreme Leader fatwa scam
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has said that he has high regardfor the fatwa issued by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed AliKhamenei a decade ago.
According to Kerry: “I show a lot of respect for this fatwa as it is areligious message and is highly respected by people.”
The problem, as I wrote last week,is that even Iranian scholars do not believe that this fatwa exists.Khamenei doesn’t list it on the fatwa page of his web site, and no onehas ever seen the actual text of the fatwa.
Apparently the tales of this fatwa began with a statement publishedin 2005 by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) announcingthe fatwa:
“The Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, AyatollahAli Khamenei has issued the Fatwa that the production, stockpilingand use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam and that theIslamic Republic of Iran shall never acquire theseweapons.”
As far as I can tell, that press report was the original mention ofthe fatwa, and that sentence has been repeated over and over sincethen.
Of course, Ayatollah Khamenei could clear up this confusion atany time. Did he issue this fatwa or not? He never says.
In my opinion, this is a scam and a fraud being perpetrated by Iran’sSupreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei. What looks to be thecase is as follows: Khamenei never issued the fatwa but got IRNA topublish a report saying that he HAD issued the fatwa. So he has thebest of both worlds. He’s got Kerry and everyone else quoting hisnon-existent fatwa, but when crunch time comes, he’ll say, “Oh no,there was no fatwa. IRNA got it wrong.” He could clarify thingstoday if he wanted to, but he doesn’t want to because he’s scammingPresident Obama, Kerry, the West, and everyone else, and getting awaywith it.
If anyone out there disagrees, it’s easy enough to prove me wrong.Find a published copy of the text of the entire fatwa, and then showan official affirmation that Khamenei issued it. Radio Zamaneh and IRNA (2005)