World View: Missile Attack on Ukraine Helicopter Portends Bigger Conflict

This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Missile attack on Ukraine helicopter portends a bigger conflict
• Hamas and Fatah move to unified Palestinian government, as Israel objects

Missile attack on Ukraine helicopter portends a bigger conflict

Black smoke rising from the scene of the helicopter crash (AP)

On Wednesday, pro-Russian separatists in east Ukraine launched aground to air missile, and downed a Ukraine army helicopter,killing 12 government soldiers. This was a devastating blowto Ukraine’s government, and it seriously escalates the conflict.

There have been multiple reports that fighters from Russia have beenjoining the anti-government rebels. According to one report on theBBC, there have been numerous fighters from Chechnya, Abkhazia andSouth Ossetia crossing the border and fighting on the side of thepro-Russian separatists in east Ukraine. There have also been somereports of rebel groups fighting each other for control of theirindividual regions.

The ground-to-air missile that brought down the helicopter may or maynot have been supplied by Russia. Ukraine itself is a manufacturer ofmany kinds of weapons, so there are multiple possible sources wherethe rebels could have obtained this weapon.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Ukraine is in agenerational Crisis era, which means that a spark could ignite aconflict that spirals into a war. I’m particularly struck by howoften I hear the words “fascists” and “Nazis” used, evoking memoriesof the bloody battles of World War II. The people who are using thosewords have little or no memory of the horrors of the torture, rape andmutilation that occurred in those battles. All they know is thattheir side were the heroes, and the other side were the criminals, andthat it’s finally time to even the score. BBC and Kyiv Post

Hamas and Fatah move to unified Palestinian government, as Israel objects

With last month’s collapse of the Mideast “peace talks,” thePalestinians made it clear that they’re going to go their own way.This means, for example, applying to hundreds of United Nationsorganizations as the State of Palestine.

On Thursday, the Palestinians announced the next step in theirplans. Hamas, the governing authority in Gaza, and thePalestinian Authority (PA/Fatah) announced that Rami Hamdallah,who is considered to be a relatively non-ideological technocrat,is to be the head of the new unity government, combining Hamasand Fatah.

There were problems almost as soon as the announcements were made.There were also supposed to be announcements of the entire unitygovernment cabinet, but they were postponed because of disagreements.Fatah and Hamas were at war several years ago, and several subsequentattempts at unity have collapsed because of hostility between the two.

If the Palestinians do succeed in forming a unity government, thenthey’ll face other problems. The U.S. and the EU identify Hamas as aterrorist organization with a charter that includes the totaldestruction of Israel. So Israel has said that they won’t do businesswith any government that includes Hamas. And U.S. law prohibits aidto the Palestinians to benefit Hamas, “or any entity effectivelycontrolled by Hamas, any power-sharing government of which Hamas is amember, or that results from an agreement with Hamas and over whichHamas exercises undue influence.”

If a unity government is actually successfully formed, then there willbe pressure within the EU to recognize the unity government. Thatwould certainly change the geopolitical landscape, but there are manyMa’an News (Bethlehem) and Jerusalem Post

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