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World View: History Repeating Itself in China and Vietnam

World View: History Repeating Itself in China and Vietnam

This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • Nigeria helpless as Boko Haram trashes entire villages
  • Reader comments: History is repeating itself
  • Generational timeline of ancient Palestine/Israel

Nigeria helpless as Boko Haram trashes entire villages

Boko Haram on Sunday attacked residents of Attagara, a village innortheast Nigeria near the Cameroon border. Like many villages,Attagara residents were frustrated by the impotence and helplessnessof the Nigerian army and security forces to protect them, so theyformed vigilante groups to defend themselves. On Sunday, the Attagaravigilante groups immediately came out and retaliated, killing severalof the Boko Haram militants. 

On Tuesday, men dressed in army uniforms arrived in Attagara withabout 200 motorcycles said they had arrived to protect the residents asked the villagers to gather in the church. Once they were allinside, the men, who were militants in disguise, surrounded thechurch, killed everyone, and burnt down the entire village. 

In addition to having abducted almost 300 teenage schoolgirls who havestill not been recovered and killing hundreds of civilians inbombings, Boko Haram militants have taken control of dozens ofvillages. Boko Haram is dividing Nigeria’s public along religiouslines. The Christians believe that Muslims in general are complicitwith Boko Haram, while the Muslims believe they’re beingunfairly blamed for the horrific actions of a terrorist gang. It’sbelieved that many soldiers in Nigeria’s army also work for BokoHaram in order to supplement their pay. These fears appear to havebeen confirmed on Wednesday, when ten generals and five other seniormilitary officers were found guilty in courts-martial of providingarms and information to Boko Haram extremists. AP and BBC and AP

Reader comments: History is repeating itself

The following are some reader comments to my last two articles: 

From Trevor in the Generational Dynamics Forum: 

One major thing that concerns me is that, indeed,history is repeating itself once again. I’ve talked to numerouspeople and realize that we are just as arrogant, just ascomplacent, and just as unprepared for a major attack as we werein 1941. With all the talk that China can’t possibly threaten us,we said something very similar- indeed, almost word for word-against Japan, only to be proven completely wrong. Doing the samething against China would be even more disastrous yet it appearslikely. 

Our current policy is assuming that war is a thing of the past,that we’ll never have to fight another ground war again, so whybother preparing for it? Any comparisons I try to make aboutsimilar mistakes in the past are shot down “We’re more civilizedthan that now” “Things are completely different” “We’re so farahead of everyone else that we’re in no danger”. Of course, thereare others who like to say that any warning of China or anyoneelse is all lies.

Sadly, pretty much everyone in office at the moment care moreabout their political power, crushing their rivals, rewardingtheir cronies, and screwing everyone else over than actuallyattempting to do something about the very real threats wecurrently face. Plenty of historians criticize our decision not tomobilize and prepare for WWII sooner, but that’s exactly whatwe’re doing today. Don’t forget: winter is coming.

Alton Wang takes China’s side in the BigPeace comments section: 

You are correct in that these waters [South ChinaSea] were indisputable for the past 2000 years, because Chinaowned them, and Viet Nam never said anything, perhaps because VietNam itself was subsidiary to China and relied on Chinese troops tofight against the French and the Americans as well. Your own primeminister Pham Van Dong actually acknowledged Chinese ownership tothese waters too. Now all of a sudden you are claimingsovereignty? Now who’s attempting to change the status quohere?

A response from Henry Nguyen, who takes Vietnam’s side in the sameBigPeace comments section: 

Vietnam said nothing because they already developedand lived on these islands for 400 years. Vietnam was fighting theFrench for 100 years until China started helping. Whatever thosehelps were, eventually cancelled by Chinese invasion in 1979. PMPham Van Dong did not acknowledge Chinese ownership (google andread again) and even if he did, as PM of North Vietnam he had nopower to give away what controlled by the South. Research forfacts and stop relying on Chinese distortions: Vietnam 1st sentnaval troops to these islands to map, build storm shelters, planttrees, collect shipwrecks and valuables since early 1,600’s. Infact, all Chinese occupations in Paracels and Spratlys today,resulted from invasions of Vietnamese presence.

Here’s another question, from Thucydides in the Generational DynamicsForum, regarding some technical questions about how generationaltheory applies to Vietnam, in view of the fact that Vietnam’s lastgenerational crisis war was the 1970s war between North and SouthVietnam, in which the U.S. sided with the South and lost: 

It appears to me that Vietnam is behaving rather oddfor a country in a generational awakening era. The governingofficials that are provoking China are from the older generationthat remembers the Vietnam war. Does generational dynamics predictthat they will back down rather than risk an unwinnable war? Or isit possible that a country in a generational awakening era canallow things to escalate into a war that it is predestined toloose?

Keep in mind that the U.S. didn’t back down from the Korean, Vietnam, and Iraq wars. The political justifications for these wars came out ofWW II — act as policeman of the world to prevent another world war. 

Vietnam is in a generational Awakening era. Vietnam beat the U.S.,then beat China in a brief war, and my guess is that they’re thinkingthat they can beat the Chinese again in some way. It would beinteresting to understand exactly what thought process the Vietnameseleaders are going through these days. They may believe that even ifChina can beat them, they’ll still inflict enough damage on theChinese that it won’t be worth it to them. That would be consistentwith the likely view of the victories over the U.S. and China. Theywore down the U.S., and they may have decided that they can wear downChina too. Generational Dynamics forum and BigPeace comments and GD forum

Generational timeline of ancient Palestine/Israel

Nathan G, a student in the Generational Dynamics forum, has done someresearch to establish a generational timeline for generations ofancient Palestine/Israel. He points out that several issues arisebecause of conflicts of chronologies (Was the Exodus in the 15th or13th century BC? Did David rule in the 11th or 10th century BC?).However, this is a good starting point to identify generational crisiswars in those centuries and serve as a basis for more research: 

Ancient Israel/Palestine generational crisis list: 

  • Conquest of Canaan, 1455-1448 BC (Book of Joshua)
  • Invasion of Moab under Eglon, 1346-1328 BC (Judges 3)
  • War with Midian, 1255-1248 BC (Judges 6-8)
  • War with Amorites, 1192-1174 BC (Judges 10-11)
  • Civil war with Benjamin, 1119-1112 BC (Judges 17-21) [? not sure about this one?]
  • Civil war between David and Saul, 1063-1059 BC (1 Samuel 19-21)
  • War between Israel and Judah, 979-954 BC (1 Kings 11-15) [Pharaoh Shishak also invaded in 974 BC]
  • War with Syria/Coup of Jehu, 890-886 BC (2 Kings 6-9)
  • War with Syria and Edom, c.830-825 BC (2 Kings 13-14)
  • Destruction of Israel by Assyria, 740-722 BC (2 Kings 17-18)
  • Capture of Manasseh by Assyrians, c.650 BC (2 Kings 21)
  • Captivity of the Jews by Nebuchadnezzar, 592-584 BC (2 Kings 24-25)
  • Persecution of the Jews under Xerxes, 474 BC (Book of Esther)
  • Persecution under Artaxerxes II, c.400 BC (implied in 3 Esdras?)
  • Syrian Wars by the Ptolemies, 301-274 BC (1 Maccabees 1)
  • Hasmonean Revolt, 170-162 BC (Books of Maccabees)
  • Pompey’s invasion of Syria, 68 BC (Josephus) [Later Roman invasions in 53 and 37 BC]
  • Revolts after Herod I, 2-7 AD (ibid.)
  • Jewish-Roman War, 66-72 AD
  • Bar-Khoba revolt, 135 AD

Jesus himself was in the same generational archetype as today’sBoomers, and he was an extremely charismatic Alinsky-style 1960s-styleactivist, just like the Boomers. That’s why he caused so manyheadaches for the Romans and the money changers and why they had toget revenge. Generational Dynamics forum

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Attagara, Boko HaramChina, Vietnam, South China Sea, Ancient Palestine, Israel 

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