This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help
- U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May
- Ukraine conflict escalates sharply after plane shot down, killing 49
Iran asks U.S. to intervene in Iraq, and offers to help
Here’s a Saturday afternoon BBC interview with Professor Fawaz Gerges,London School of Economics, that I transcribed, in which both theinterviewer and the interviewee expressed utter astonishment at theday’s news:
INTERVIEWER: “Let’s start with Iran. Now they saythey’re willing to cooperate with the United States. I can’tbelieve those words are coming out of my mouth. What would be themotivation behind that? They do simply fear ISIS, and what couldhappen to Iraq? …”
GERGES: “One of the most important developments to come out ofthis particular crisis is the convergence of interests of theUnited States and Iran. Both powers have vested interests instopping the ISIS surge. Iraq is the most pivotal ally of Iran.And the United States fears that ISIS could really present athreat not only to Iraq’s integrity, but for regional stabilities.
I cannot believe it myself. The Iranian leadership OPENLY andPUBLICLY calling on the United States to intervene in Iraq. Aradical departure from Iran’s previous position.
Remember, Chris, for your viewers, Iran played a fundamental rolein nudging its allies to force the US out in 2011. Now, bothpowers — and I have no doubt in my mind that both powers aretalking secretly. Even now, both powers are not talking about it,because they’re planning contingency plans, because only theUnited States and Iran could regroup and help the Iraqi forces toconsolidate that power.”
What they were talking about is a speech by Iran’s president HassanRouhani saying that they would help the U.S. confront “terroristgroups” in Iraq and Syria, referring principally to the IslamicEmirate in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). According to Rouhani:
“If the Iraqi government asks us for help, we mayprovide any assistance the Iraqi nation would like us to providein the fight against terrorism.
All countries need to embark on joint effort regarding terrorism.
At the moment, it’s the government of Iraq and the people of Iraqthat are fighting terrorism.
We have not seen the US do anything for now. Any time theAmericans start to take action against terrorist groups, we canconsider that.”
There are reports that Iran has already sent two battalions oftroops into Iraq, though they deny it.
President Obama is offering to help Iraq’s president Nouri al-Malikiwith the U.S. military, but with “no boots on the ground.” Theaircraft carrier George H.W. Bush has been moved into the Persian Gulfto provide Obama with options for possible airstrikes.
We now have a sectarian Sunni versus Shia conflict growing in theMideast, and it looks like Iran and the U.S. are going to be allies.Reports indicate the White House have been “surprised” by how quicklyall of this is happening. Obviously the White House doesn’t read myweb site, because these are all things that I’ve been predicting foryears, based on Generational Dynamics analyses.
The Generational Dynamics web site is unique in the world. I’llrepeat the challenge that I’ve issued repeatedly since 2005: Find me apolitician, analyst, journalist or web site anywhere in the world withanything close to the predictive success of Generational Dynamics andthis web site. I know that none exists, because I’ve looked.
So those of you on both the left and the right who have send me hatemail from time to time should be aware that you’re wrong and I’m right– or more precisely, Generational Dynamics is right. Anyone can havean ideological opinion and rant about it, but Generational Dynamics isnot an ideological opinion, but a methodology that applies SystemDynamics and Chaos Theory to generational trends and flows, and alwaysseems to be right.
I’m completely schizophrenic about this. The part of me that’s intomath and computers and analytics is thrilled that GenerationalDynamics seems to work consistently. But the part of me that’s humanand deals every day with stories about starving children, schoolsblown to smithereens, and “industrial strength” torture is extremelysaddened and depressed. I have little doubt that one day, undoubtedlyafter my death, Generational Dynamics will be regarded as a majoradvance in historical analysis. BBC andIndependent (London)
U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May
The Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI), themeasure of how much wholesale prices are increasing, fell 0.2% in May,indicating that wholesale prices fell, rather than increasing. Thatis, instead of seeing inflation, we’re seeing deflation. Once month’sdata isn’t necessarily dispositive, but the PPI has been close to zerofor months, and gone negative four times in the last year.
The prediction that I’ve been making for years is that the economy isin a deflationary spiral. This directly contradicts almost allmainstream economists and politicians who have been predictinginflation or hyperinflation because of low interest rates andquantitative easing. As in the case of Iran being our ally in aSunni-Shia sectarian conflict, Generational Dynamics has beenconsistently right and mainstream economists, pundits, analysts andpoliticians have been wrong. Bloomberg and Reuters
Ukraine conflict escalates sharply after plane shot down, killing 49
Ukraine’s president Petro Poroshenko vowed to retaliate againstpro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine, after a military plane wasshot down by a shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile, presumablysupplied by Russia, killing 49 people on board on Saturday morning.
The missile attack triggered a pro-Ukrainian protest in Kiev thatturned violent. Several hundred protesters hurled eggs and paint atthe Russian embassy in Kiev, and other protesters turned over carsthat carried diplomatic plates. Kiev police looked on and did nothingto stop the violent protests.
The fighting continues to escalate in Ukraine, thanks to tanks, heavyweapons and “volunteers” supplied by Russia. Ukraine and Russia arein a generational Crisis era, so it’s quite possible that the conflictwill spiral into a full-scale war. BBC