This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com:
- Sarajevo Serbs unveil monument to Gavrilo Princip, who triggered World War I.
- What could trigger another world war?
- The West African Ebola outbreak is now the worst in history.
Sarajevo Serbs unveil monument to Gavrilo Princip, who triggered World War I
Bosnian actor Jovan Mojsilovic poses in front of monument honoring Gavrilo Princip at ceremony on Saturday (AP)
World War I should be a forgotten event, with its 16 million deaths a symbol of atime when people weren’t nearly as smart and sophisticated as we aretoday, and so did many stupid things.
That may be the attitude in America, but it’s certainly not in theBalkans, where a monument to Gavrilo Princip was unveiled on Saturdayin East Sarajevo by Nebojsa Radmanovic, the Serb leader in thegovernment of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Austria-Hungary had occupied Bosnia since 1878, and Princip was theone of seven members of the group Mlada Bosna (Young Bosnia) thatwanted independence from Austria-Hungary.
Exactly one hundred years ago, on June 28, 1914, Gavrilo Princip shotand killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarianempire, and his pregnant wife, Sophie.
At Saturday’s ceremony, Radmanovic said that Princip was a hero to theSerb people:
“Today, we have Gavrilo in East Sarajevo, arevolutionary, a man who to us, is one century of hope. Weremember the Young Bosnia members and Gavrilo Princip proudly. …
Gavrilo Princip’s shot was a shot for freedom. His shot was aprelude to what some Europeans had prepared for years, and Serbsfinished the war as winners. We remember Mlada Bosna and GavriloPrincip with pride.”
There were also centenary commemorations of the start of World War Iin the other half of Sarajevo, but the Muslims and Croats in thosecommemorations do not consider Princip or any Serb to be a hero.Fresh in their minds are the memories of the Bosnian war in 1992-95,when 100,000 people died and Sarajevo suffered a 1,425 day siege bySerb forces. To them, Princip is just a terrorist who killed apolitician and a pregnant woman, and brought a flourishing epoch toan end.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the 1990s Bosnian warcame at the expected time. World War I ended in 1917, and new crisiswars begin when the survivors of the previous crisis disappear. Bythe 1990s, none of those survivors were left, and the region collapsedinto one of the bloodiest and most vicious wars in the post-WW II era.According to one historical summary of the war:
“It was during this initial wave of Bosnian Serbethnic cleansing — orchestrated by Radovan Karadzi and hisgenerals — that the world began to hear tales as horrifying asanything you can imagine. Militia units would enter a town andindiscriminately kill anyone they saw — civilian men, women, andchildren. Pregnant women mortally wounded by gunfire were left todie in the street. Fleeing residents crawled on their stomachs forhours to reach cover, even as their family and friends were shotand blown up right next to them. Soldiers rounded up families,then forced parents to watch as they slit the throats of theirchildren — and then the parents were killed, too. Dozens of peoplewould be lined up along a bridge to have their throats slit, oneat a time, so that their lifeless bodies would plunge into theriver below. (Villagers downstream would see corpses float past,and know their time was coming soon.) While in past conflictshouses of worship had been considered off-limits, now Karadzi’sforces actively targeted mosques and Catholic churches. Perhapsmost despicable was the establishment of so-called “rape camps” –concentration camps where mostly Bosniak [Bosnian Muslim] womenwere imprisoned and systematically raped by Serb soldiers. Manywere intentionally impregnated and held captive until they hadcome to term (too late for an abortion), when they were releasedto bear and raise a child forced upon them by their hatedenemy. These are the stories that turned “Balkans” into a dirtyword.
The Bosnian Serb aggressors were intentionally gruesome andviolent. Leaders roused their foot soldiers with hate-filledpropaganda (claiming, for example, that the Bosniaks were intenton creating a fundamentalist Islamic state that would do evenworse to its Serb residents), then instructed them to carry outunthinkable atrocities. For the people who carried out theseattacks, the war represented a cathartic opportunity to exactvengeance for decades-old perceived injustices. Everyday Serbs –who, for centuries, have been steeped in messages about how theyhave been the victims of their neighbors — saw this as anopportunity to finally make a stand. But their superiors had evenmore dastardly motives. They sought not only to remove people from ‘their’ land, but to do so in such a heinous way to ensure thatthe various groups could never again tolerate livingtogether.”
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Bosnia andYugoslavia were on a “World War I” timeline, meaning that theircrisis wars occurred around the time of WWI, and then repeated 60 to 80years later. The Iran/Iraq war (1980-88) and the Syria/Lebanon war(1976-1982) are other examples of wars on the WWI timeline, andthese wars were full of similar atrocities.
Americans and Westerners in general think that they’re more civilized and immune to these atrocities, but nothing could be further from thetruth. Western countries, for the most part are on the “World War IItimeline.” These same kinds of atrocities occurred in WWII, and if these wars recur years after the end of WWII, Westerners will be subject to the same kinds of atrocities.
What could trigger another world war?
Consider the following events of the last 15 years:
- When the events of September 11, 2001, occurred, President George W Bush declared war on Afghanistan within 24 hours. America won that war very quickly, and no one intervened on the side of Afghanistan. If, say, China or Pakistan or Russia had intervened to support Afghanistan, then there might have been a new world war.
- In 2006, when two Israeli soldiers were kidnapped near the border with Lebanon, Israel panicked and launched a war with Hezbollah within four hours, with no plan and no objectives. No other country came to the defense of Hezbollah. If, say, Iran or Syria had entered the war on the side of Hezbollah, then it might have spiraled into a regional and world war.
- In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia and annexed the provinces in the sovereign territory of Georgia: South Ossetia and Abkhazia. No country came to the defense of Georgia. More recently, no country has come to the defense of Ukraine, when Russia annexed Crimea.
- China has annexed properties belonging to the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea, and no country has come to the latter’s defense. Furthermore, China has repeatedly threatened military action against Taiwan, and the Senkaku island governed by Japan. If the U.S. intervenes in any of these situations, then the result will spiral into war.
These are all modern day examples of situations that are similar tothe Austria-Hungary occupation and annexation of Bosnia in the late1800s. In all these modern day examples, there were many actions thattook place very quickly — within a few hours or a day or two. If asituation were going out of control, there would be no time for quietcontemplation or debates in the defunct United Nations SecurityCouncil.
There have been many renewed debates recently about the causes ofWorld War I. One of the most frequently mentioned causes is theunconditional support to Austria in its invasion of Serbia. Thatbrought Germany into the war. France also issued a kind of “blankcheck” to Russia, promising support against Austria, and that broughtRussia into the war.
America has issued many “blank checks” to many countries. After WorldWar II, America signed a large number of mutual defense treaties withother countries. These include agreements with Japan, South Korea,Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, the ANZUS agreement with Australiaand New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreementwith all of Europe.
A mutual defense treaty is arguably not the same as a “blank check,”but it’s close enough so that a misstep or miscalculation on thepart of any country could start a world war.
In 1914, it took the action of just one young man to trigger 16million deaths. The fighting ranged from Gallipoli and theDardanelles Campaign — where Newfoundlanders fought and died alongsideIndians, Australians and New Zealanders — to the Balkans, the killingfields of the Western Front, the waters off Argentina, and in thePacific where the Imperial Japanese Navy fought on the same side asBritain and France, grabbing German colonies and outposts in China andMicronesia.
The Japanese sent warships to the Mediterranean and off the coast ofSouth Africa, and were involved with Canadian, Czech and Britishtroops in the Siberian Intervention against Communist Russia, duringthe last days of war and for several months thereafter.
One of the ironies of The Great War was that Gavrilo Princip’sassassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914, wasopportunistic. The driver of Ferdinand’s vehicle took a wrong turn,and the wrong turn brought Ferdinand into shooting range of Princip.If the driver had not taken that wrong turn, then something else wouldhave had to trigger The Great War, and Gavrilo Princip would not havea monument dedicated to him.
That shows how easy it is for a misstep or miscalculation to leadto war.
West African Ebola outbreak is now the worst in history
According to the latest figures from the World Health Organization(WHO), there have been more than 635 cases of Ebola across Guinea,Liberia and Sierra Leona, with at least 399 deaths. Those figures aresubstantially higher than when I wrote about this four days ago. Ebola can spread rapidly through apopulation because it’s spread by touch, especially with the bodilyfluids of a person who is infected, but has not yet shown symptoms.WHO officials are now saying there is a real danger that it couldspread to neighboring countries, such as the Ivory Coast and GuineaBissau. There’s no danger of a worldwide epidemic, since Ebola isonly spread through contact with the bodily fluids of an infectedperson, as opposed to a virus that can spread through the air.USA Today
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gavrilo Princip, Mlada Bosna, Young Bosnia,Archduke Franz Ferdinand, Austria-Hungary, Bosnia,Nebojsa Radmanovic, Jovan Mojsilovic,Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, Russia, Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, Syria,Lebanon, Georgia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Ukraine, Crimea,Philippines, Vietnam, South China Sea, Taiwan, Japan, Senkaku,Ebola, World Health Organization, WHO, Guinea,Liberia, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Guinea Bissau
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