This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Israel, Hamas extend Gaza truce another 24 hours to negotiate deal
- Hamas cracks down on political enemies in Gaza
- The ‘Sadat Gambit’ in the 1973 Yom Kippur war
- Kenya will block West African passengers from entering country
Israel, Hamas extend Gaza truce another 24 hours to negotiate deal
Just before midnight Monday, when the latest Hamas-Israel Gazatruce was due to expire, the two sides agreed to extend thetruce another 24 hours to continue negotiating a draft dealbeing discussed in Cairo.
According to Debka, the provisions of the draft deal includethese terms:
- Extend Palestinian fishing rights.
- Discuss, in a month, building a deep sea port and airport in Gaza.
- Israel will waive demilitarization of Gaza.
- Israel will negotiate release of convicted Palestinian prisoners from jail.
Hamas cracks down on political enemies in Gaza
Reports have indicated that a major objective of both Egypt and Israelin a potential peace settlement of the Gaza war is that MahmoudAbbas’s Palestinian Authority (PA or Fatah) would play a major role,either replacing Hamas as the governing authority in Gaza, or atleast serving as guards at an open Rafah border crossing connectingGaza to Egypt. However, these proposals are an existential threat toHamas as a political and military organization, so there’s never beenany serious chance that they would accept either of them.
The Palestinian factions Hamas and PA/Fatah have been bitter enemiessince Hamas defeated Fatah in a 2008 war that wrested complete controlof Gaza from Fatah. Theoretically, Fatah and Hamas have reconciledand are part of a “unity government,” but unity has always been afantasy, and the Gaza war has split them further.
Hamas has been cracking down on political opponents in Gaza for sometime, especially Fatah. But now on Monday, Hamas has placed dozens ofFatah activists under house arrest and has shot several in the legsfor not staying indoors. Hamas leaders claim that they had nothing todo with the actions and suggested that some Hamas activists had beenacting on their own. This illustrates a major problem with the peacenegotiations in Cairo — Hamas does not have control of Gaza, or evenits own activists, so it’s not capable of making valid commitments.
Separately, reports indicate Israel’s security services uncovered aHamas plot to violently overthrow the Palestinian Authority in theWest Bank, coupled with large-scale terrorist attacks on Israel. Thereport claims that the plot was orchestrated from Istanbul, with theknowledge of Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. AP and Debka
The ‘Sadat Gambit’ in the 1973 Yom Kippur war
According to a Sunday analysis by Kforce Government Solutions,Israel’s prime minister is determined to avoid a repeat of a trap setby Egypt’s president Anwar Sadat in the 1973 Yom Kippur war withIsrael:
Egyptian authorities indicated that today’snegotiations would represent Egypt’s final effort to mediate alasting ceasefire. All parties appear interested in observing theceasefire a day at a time, even in the absence of an omnibusagreement.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel will notcompromise on the security requirement that the Gaza Strip must bedemilitarized. He also said that Hamas will not be permitted toobtain a political victory from its military defeat. If Hamasresumes rocket attacks upon the expiration of the ceasefire,Netanyahu promised massive retaliation.
What Netanyahu refers to is the Sadat Gambit that motivated theYom Kippur War of 1973. Egyptian President Sadat knew thatEgyptian forces could not defeat Israel in a war. The militaryobjective was to gain enough territory to provide Egypt withleverage in the peace talks. In other words, lose the war to winthe peace. It worked. Egypt did not with the war, but eventuallybecame the second largest recipient of US military aid, secondonly to Israel.
The Palestinians, according to Netanyahu, tried a scaled backversion of the Sadat Gambit, but failed because they were unableto cause significant casualties in Israel. The Gambit works whenthe side using it achieves sufficient, real battlefield success toafford it leverage in peace talks. The Palestinians fell short ofattaining leverage because their rockets performed so poorly andso many Palestinians died.
The Israelis understand that ploy and will deny it to Hamas. Thekey point is that Hamas is continuing to fold. It is now willingto settle for a partial lifting of the Israeli blockade and todefer discussion of a seaport in Gaza, as long as Israel allowsfunds to be transferred by the Palestinian Authority to Hamas toenable it to pay the bills.
Another way in which Hamas has sustained a setback is that thePalestinian Authority appears to be asserting more authority overthe negotiations, mostly because of Hamas legendary inability togovern and because the Authority has money and Hamas is broke.
One or other of the Palestinian groups may be expected to launchrockets by Tuesday, as a show of defiance. Israel will respondasymmetrically. The fighting is not finished.
Kenya will block West African passengers from entering country
In a new blow to the economy of West Africa, Kenya said on Monday itwill block passengers from Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea fromentering Kenya for fear that they might be carrying the Ebola virus.This is further isolating the region, threatening shortages of foodand other supplies. The World Bank and the African Development Bankare planning to provide as much as $260 million in emergency aid.
As we reported yesterday, fearshave increased that the spread of Ebola is out of control afterlooters attacked an Ebola clinic in the densely crowded West Pointdistrict of Monrovia, the capital city. The looters stoleblood-stained sheets and mattresses, putting into danger anyone whocomes into contact with those items. 17 Ebola patients left theclinic after the attack.
Reports yesterday indicated that authorities had found the 17 escapedEbola patients and moved them to a central Monrovia hospital.However, later reports indicate that the escaped patients have notbeen found. Also, the Monrovia police have been unable to enter theclinic for fear of becoming infected. Once they’ve receivedshipments of protective equipment and suits, they’ll be able to deployto West Point. Zegabi (Kenya) and Bloomberg and Reuters
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Hussam Kawasme,Palestinian Authority, Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, Egypt,Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Anwar Sadat, Sadat Gambit,Benjamin Netanyahu,Kenya, Ebola, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea,World Bank, African Development Bank, Monrovia, West Point