World View: Ebola Expected to Reach France and Britain Within Three Weeks

This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• U.S. military expands war in Iraq with Apache Helicopters
• Thousands of villagers in Kashmir flee India-Pakistan clashes
• Ebola expected to reach France and Britain within three weeks
• Liberia and Sierra Leone introduce School by Radio

U.S. military expands war in Iraq with Apache Helicopters

An Apache helicopter flying over Iraq in 2008 (Army)

The U.S. military has begun using Apache AH-64 attack helicopters tostrike targets of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS orISIL) in Iraq. In addition, the number 1,200 of US military personalon the ground in Iraq is expected to increase to 1,600 within thecoming weeks, although the U.S. administration does not refer to theseas “ground forces.”

Up until now, U.S. bombing strikes were all performed by high-flyingwarplanes, out of reach of small arms fire and missiles from ISISfighters. Military analysts have generally pointed out that warplanebombing and missile strikes have very limited effectiveness. Apachehelicopters have the advantage that they can be much more effective inproviding close air support for “ground troops,” but unlike warplanesthey’re vulnerable to enemy small arms and missile fire. During theprevious Iraq war, several Apaches were shot down by enemy fire.Defense News and ABC News

Thousands of villagers in Kashmir flee India-Pakistan clashes

Tens of thousands of villagers were fleeing their homes in Kashmir onMonday as Indian and Pakistani troops bombarded each other withgunfire and mortar shells over the international border known as theIndian-government regions of Kashmir. Kashmir was a majorbattleground for the 1947 Partition war that following thepartitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan, oneof the bloodiest wars of the last century, and there have been twomore wars fought across the LoC since then. Monday’s fighting was theworst since a 2003 cease-fire agreement, and took place at a number ofpoints along the LoC.

According to Pakistan’s government, the fighting started when Indianforces resorted to “unprovoked firing” along the boundary.

An Indian statement blamed Pakistani forces for violating theceasefire, and promised “effective retaliation.” In a departure frompast practice, India said they would neither speak to Pakistan, norseek a flag meeting to lower tensions. AP and Dawn (Pakistan) and Indian Express

Ebola expected to reach France and Britain within three weeks

In Spain, a nurse’s assistant contracted Ebola, after treating aSpanish missionary and Spanish priest who had returned from WestAfrica with Ebola. Scientists have used Ebola disease spread patternsand airline traffic data to predict a 75% chance the virus could beimported to France by October 24, and a 50% chance it could hitBritain by that date. Belgium has a 40% chance. The cases areexpected to be the result of air travel from West Africa.

However, these are expected to be isolated cases that will becontrolled by using techniques like “contact tracing,” as I describeda few days ago. ( “3-Oct-14 World View — Five new Ebola patients become infected every hour in Sierra Leone”)

However, West Africa is being overwhelmed by Ebola, and contacttracing is not possible. Some reports indicate that eastern Guineaand eastern Liberia, which had remained free of Ebola, are now seeingit spread to those regions. This means that it will probably nextspread into Cote d’Ivoire.

Countries around the world are ramping up their preparations for Ebolacoming to their countries. As I’ve said before, Ebola is most likelyto spread out of control in large megacities and in war zones, such asSyria and Iraq. CNN and Reuters

Liberia and Sierra Leone introduce School by Radio

Schools in Liberia and Sierra Leone remain closed with no announceddate for reopening. The purpose of closing the schools is to inhibitthe spread of Ebola among schoolchildren, but closing the schoolsdoesn’t remove the danger, according to one community leader:

“Children are always playing outside. They’re touchingeach other, they’re hugging each other. Even if you say to them:don’t touch, they’re playing football. You see them every daydoing such things, so it is about telling them and educatingthem.”

The solution in both countries is to provide educational courses byradio. It’s hoped that this will keep the kids indoors, and thatthey’ll be able to continue their education. All Africa andSBS World News (Australia)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Apache AH-64,Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,Pakistan, India, Kashmir, Line of Control, LoC,Spain, Ebola, France, Britain, Belgium, West Africa,Guinea, Liberace, Cote d’Ivoire, Syria, Iraq
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