Secretary of State John Kerry warned this weekend that without a two-state solution, a one-state solution would emerge that “is no solution at all for a Jewish, democratic Israel living in peace.”
Kerry, addressing the Saban Forum in Washington, D.C., was citing the tired talking point that without a two-state solution, Jews would be a demographic minority in the territory ruled by Israel, and that would lead to minority rule.
However, the scenario Kerry describes is based on faulty Palestinian demographic statistics.
Nearly ten years ago, scholars began debunking the Palestinian Authority’s demographic numbers, which assumed unreasonable rates of population grown, both due to immigration and birth rates. The demographic data were inflated precisely to create the kind of international pressure that Kerry is now applying, forcing Israelis into an impossible choice between security and democracy.
However, the repeated predictions of Palestinian numerical majority have failed to materialize because the numbers are wrong.
That is especially true without Gaza, following the Israeli withdrawal in 2005 and the Palestinians’ effort at turning the territory into a terrorist state that neither Israel nor the West Bank Palestinians can easily absorb. Jewish birthrates in Israel have also been climbing.
As Caroline Glick wrote in her 2014 book, The Israel Solution, Jews–currently 80% of Israel’s population–would still be a two-thirds majority if Israel annexed the West Bank. That is the reality of what a one-state solution would look like.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded on Sunday to Kerry’s suggestion, telling his Cabinet, according to Ha’aretz: “”Israel will not be a binational state, but in order for there to be peace, the other side needs to decide if they want peace. Unfortunately, this is not what we are seeing.”
Netanyahu also told the Saban forum: “The terrorists are attacking in California or in Israel, or for that matter in Paris. They are attacking the very values that we hold dear–freedom, tolerance, diversity.”