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World View: Terrorist Attack in Kashmir Threatens India-Pakistan Retaliation

This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

  • New terrorist attack in Kashmir threatens India-Pakistan retaliation
  • Russia accuses US of intentionally striking Syria’s army to support ISIS

New terrorist attack in Kashmir threatens India-Pakistan retaliation

An Indian policeman fires a teargas shell at Srinagar, Kashmir, protestors on Tuesday (Reuters)
An Indian policeman fires a teargas shell at Srinagar, Kashmir, protestors on Tuesday (Reuters)

Sunday’s American newscasts were occupied with unending discussions of Trump and Clinton vitriolically calling each other names, as well as the terrorist attacks in New York City, wounding 28 people, all of whom have been released from hospital.

But if you’re worried about the possibility of global war, then the much more important story on Sunday, totally ignored by the newscasts, was India and Pakistan vitriolically calling each other names, and the new terrorist attacks in Kashmir, killing over 17 people.

In the hours following the first posting of my article yesterday on Kashmir and Balochistan, four militants, carrying guns and grenades, stormed an Indian army base in Uri in Kashmir. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17 soldiers were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst militant terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.

India’s Home Affairs Minister Rajnath Singh reacted by blaming Pakistan and calling Pakistan a “terrorist state,” and said that “there are definite and conclusive indications that the perpetrators of Uri attack were highly trained, heavily armed and specially equipped. I am deeply disappointed with Pakistan’s continued and direct support to terrorism and terrorist groups.”

Pakistani officials responded:

Pointing fingers at Pakistan has become a traditional tendency of India after each terrorist attack. In the past many Indians were involved in the terrorist acts for which India had blamed Pakistan…

India is trying to divert world’s attention from the human rights violations being committed in occupied Kashmir…

The whole world is looking at the Indian atrocities in India-held Kashmir and UN Human Rights Commissioner has also offered to send fact finding mission to Kashmir which India has rejected.

India’s media is calling for retaliation against Pakistan. India’s Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar tweeted:

The supreme sacrifice of 17 brave soldiers will not go in vain. My salute to them. Reviewed situation in Kashmir following Uri attack with Army Chief & Commanders. Instructed to take firm action against those responsible.

According to G. Parthasarathy, former High Commissioner of India to Pakistan:

Pakistan is isolated within SAARC [South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation], as three members of the regional group have accused it of sponsoring terrorism. Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India have accused Islamabad of sponsoring terrorism that ISI continues to generate, irrespective of the condition of the bilateral ties with India. Such attacks take place irrespective of the ties being temporarily good or continuously bad. A response therefore has to be forcefully enunciated.

India and Pakistan were at the brink of war following the November 2008 three-day ’26/11′ terror attack in Mumbai. That attack was perpetrated by Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), a Pakistan Taliban terrorist group. India threatened to invade Pakistani soil to go after Lashkar-e-Toiba. War was only avoided by hard intervention from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. It appears that India and Pakistan are, once again, on the brink of war.

As I’ve been writing repeatedly in the last few weeks, the situation in Kashmir is “organic,” meaning that the rebellion is coming up from the people, rather than being controlled by country leaders or army generals. What we’re seeing is a repeat of the last two generational crisis wars, which were also “organic” and extremely bloody: India’s 1857 Rebellion and the 1947 Partition war.

It seems increasingly likely that this will explode into full-scale anti-Indian rebellion by the Kashmir Muslims in the next few months. If that happens, then a war between India and Pakistan becomes increasingly likely, and that would bring in their allies — Russia and the U.S. on India’s side, and China and Saudi Arabia on Pakistan’s side.

As long-time readers know, this is what has been predicted for ten years, based on Generational Dynamics analyses, as the world gets closer and closer to the Clash of Civilizations world war. BBC and The Hindu and Dawn (Pakistan) and Reuters

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Russia accuses US of intentionally striking Syria’s army to support ISIS

On Saturday, airstrikes from the US-led coalition were supposed to target a tank position of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Deir Ezzor, but mistakenly targeted Syrian regime troops who were fighting ISIS in that region. Russia’s military says that 62 Syrian regime soldiers were killed.

US Central Command said that they had conferred with the Russian military before the airstrike but, as usual, only broadly described the geographic area.

Russia convened an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, accused the US of intentionally striking the Syrian army in order to support the ISIS terrorists:

It is quite significant and frankly suspicious that the United States chose to conduct this particular airstrike at this time. Why all of a sudden did the United States choose to help the Syrian armed forces defending Deir Ezzor. After all they did nothing when ISIL was advancing on Palmyra. ISIL made a 100 mile march without being attacked by the coalition. All of a sudden the United States decides to come to the assistance of the Syrian armed forces defending Deir Ezzor.

It is quite significant and I would suggest not accidental that this happened just two days before the arrangements – Russian American arrangements – were supposed to come into force.

Samantha Power, the US ambassador to the UN, responded by calling the whole meeting hypocritical stunt:

Even by Russia’s standards, tonight’s stunt — a stunt replete with moralism and grandstanding — is uniquely cynical and hypocritical…

Russia really needs to stop the cheap point scoring and the grandstanding and the stunts and focus on what matters — which is implementation of something that we negotiated in good faith with them, which has shown it can reduce violence, and shown it can save lives, but it needs to be implemented. And a meeting like this, a stunt like this, isn’t helping anybody.

Power continued by listing atrocities of the Syrian regime.

Australia’s Department of Defense said in a statement that Australian aircraft were involved in the attacks in Deir Ezzor, targeting “what was believed to be a Daesh fighting position that the Coalition had been tracking for some time.” It said bombing “ceased immediately” once Russian officials notified the coalition’s Combined Air Operations Center that the targets may have been regime forces. CNN and Russia Today and The Australian

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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Uri, Rajnath Singh, Manohar Parrikar, G. Parthasarathy, Mumbai, Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT, Condoleezza Rice, Syria, Deir Ezzor, Russia, Vitaly Churkin, Palmyra, Samantha Power, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
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