Upstart challengers and fierce early combat are giving Hillary Clinton and John McCain, the once-anointed establishment frontrunners, a rough ride in the 2008 White House race. Senator Clinton, as she tunes up the feared family election machine, faces an unexpected, and increasingly threatening test from Democratic phenom Senator Barack Obama.
Senator McCain, once Republican heir apparent, has been knocked off his perch by former New York mayor and September 11 hero Rudolph Giuliani.
But while opinion polls drive campaign buzz, analysts dispute their worth this early on, and predict a volatile, open race for months to come.
"I don't think there is a frontrunner," said Professor Bruce Altschuler of the State University of New York at Oswego.
Most polls sort candidates on both sides into a top tier, and also rans.
Democrat Clinton leads Obama and defeated 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards in an prime pack separated from longshots such as Senator Joseph Biden and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson.
Among Republicans, Giuliani betters McCain and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, well ahead of a group including ex-governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee and Senator Sam Brownback.
While polls may reflect name recognition, rather than voter knowledge of policy platforms, they do offer clues as to how the race will unfold.
"Candidates that are in the second tier or way behind tend to get buried," said Altschuler.
"Secondly in terms of fundraising. If you are that far behind, it is hard to raise money."
Already, Democrat Tom Vilsack, former governor of Iowa has bowed out, thwarted by the impossiblity of raising needed millions of dollars in campaign cash against rock star candidates like Clinton and Obama.
Being a favorite in 2008 might be more important than in previous US elections, as the calendar of primary and causus contests is more compressed than ever, meaning there is little time to build momentum once first votes are cast.
"If major states move up to the very first week in February that means it really is a frontrunners game," said Christine Williams, professor of government at Bentley College, Massachusetts.
"Hillary Clinton has a very deep organization ... Barack Obama has a lot of enthusiasm in the grass roots (but) the others are struggling to compete with the media visibility and forward momentum of those two frontrunners."
Clinton's lead over Obama shrunk by seven points, from 37-18 percent in December to 40-28 percent in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll out last week. Edwards was third with 15 percent.
Clinton seems discomforted in the early going by the novice Obama.
The charismatic Illinois senator is staking a claim to her husband former president Bill Clinton's fundraising fiefdoms in New York and Hollywood.
Obama went head to head with Clinton last week in Alabama, making a pitch for the African-American community which famously welcomed the former president as one of its own.
"What is Hillary thinking?" said Buddy Howell, a specialist on presidential rhetoric at Purdue University, Indiana.
"Her husband of course was called 'the first black president,' now she is going to have to go up against somebody who might be qualified to actually be the first black president. She never planned on that."
Clinton's camp may be hoping Obama's star will dim.
"As people dig out more about him and start raising questions, some of the early rush of enthusiasm will start to fade, it always does," said Williams.
Among Republicans, Giuliani has overhauled McCain, who risked his prospects by supporting Bush's strategy to send more troops to the unpopular Iraq war.
Giuliani, who led McCain by six points in December, leads his closest rival by 14 points, 38 to 24 percent, according to Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
But his past liberal positions on abortion and gay rights could turn off conservatives who go a long way to choosing the Republican ticket.
Giuliani may also be vulnerable if he fails to sketch a rationale for his candidacy, other than his credentials as a tough, anti-terror leader.
"The 9/11 thing is only going to take him so far ... he has got to be something more than the American hero," said Howell.
Republicans must also wrestle with the legacy of President George W. Bush and Iraq, while taking care not to alienate hawkish conservatives.
"If they stick with the president too long they undercut their prospects of getting elected in 2008," said Professor Steven Smith, of Washington University, St. Louis.
