North Korea years away from successful sub missile launch, analysts say

SEOUL, Dec. 2 (UPI) — U.S. analysts said North Korea is a long way away from the successful underwater launch of a ballistic missile — and needs a 3,000-ton submarine for the task.

North Korea’s SLBM defense system is designed to launch an underwater missile attack that can evade radar detection and is the last component of Pyongyang’s nuclear deterrent, South Korean outlet News 1 reported.

But several analysts told Voice of America North Korea’s SLBM capabilities have a long way to go.

Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corp., said that dozens of tests must take place before North Korea could use SLBMs in combat arrangements. That could take five to 10 years, he said.

Joseph S. Bermudez, who previously worked as an analyst for the Defense Department, said even if North Korea conducts all tests successfully, the strategy would need two to five years before it pays off.

North Korea is using old Soviet missiles for the tests, but in order for the launches to work, it needs at least a 3,000-ton submarine.

South Korea has said North Korea’s fleet of submarines includes the 1,800-ton Romeo class, the 325-ton Shark class, the 130-ton Salmon class and the new Shinpo-class submarine weighing 2,000 tons.

Pyongyang’s weapons programs are a priority for the state, as is its military, but its top officials are aging – including Hwang Pyong So, Kim Jong Un’s top military aide.

Hwang also has been missing from public spectacles since Nov. 11, drawing concerns from North Korea watchers regarding his unexpected disappearance.

South Korean television network SBS reported Wednesday Hwang, 66, was most likely in Singapore to receive spine surgery.

According to an anonymous source familiar with the North Korea regime, Hwang had flown to Singapore from a transit point in China at an unspecified date and has returned to North Korea.

The source said the sheer volume of activity Hwang has had to undertake under Kim Jong Un could have affected his health. In 2015, Hwang accompanied Kim on 74 field guidance trips and also was one of two negotiators with the South on Aug. 25.