BOCA RATON, Fla., July 29 (UPI) — Fantasy is essentially, imagining things, especially those that are impossible or improbable.
So it makes sense that nothing is for certain in fantasy football.
This has brought about the advent of conservative predictability. This practice could be what wins you your fantasy league this season, and for years to come. The best way to succeed in a fantasy football draft is to minimize risk with your early round selections, particularly your first and second round picks. As many fantasy football players have learned recently, the NFL has become a passing league. Gone are the days of endless grounding and pounding with a feature running back.
Le’Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Anderson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, and Jeremy Hill were considered consensus first-round draft selections last season. Just Peterson started 16 games out of that group. He was also the only running back to eclipse 1,000 yards. Peterson and Hill each scored 11 touchdowns in 2015, while no other player scored more than six in that group. Conversely, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham Jr., and Julio Jones were the top five wide receivers drafted last season. Only Bryant failed to be healthy for 16 games last season. Bryant was also the only player to have less than 1,300 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
Fantasy football has turned to the wide receiver as its marquee position. The running back position has become harder to predict each season, while most of the stud wide receivers have remained at the top of positional rankings. Now it makes sense to draft one or two No. 1 wide receivers in the first two or three rounds. With running-back-by-committees being employed throughout the league, you can bulk up on a skilled stable of dynamic younger players at the position, who are sure to provide you with adequate points given good match ups. Those players can also be used as trade bait later on in the season, especially when elite running backs inevitably get injured.
Odell Beckham Jr. is our No. 1 ranked player for 2016.
Although Beckham has dealt with minor injuries in his short career, his production is simply unmatched. Beckham is one of those fantasy players who can win you your week, multiple times in a season. The 23-year-old has scored 25 touchdowns in 27 career contests for the New York Giants. Last season likely shut the door to prior thinking that Beckham Jr. could not hold up for an entire season.
If you want to go the safer route, look no further than Antonio Brown. Brown has 265 receptions and 23 touchdowns in his last 32 games for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He has started every game for two consecutive seasons to become arguably the NFL’s best pass-catcher.
When will Adrian Peterson run out of gas? Peterson, 31, is looking to prove doubters, and history, wrong this season, as he continues to churn into his 30’s. ‘All Day’ led the NFL in carries [327], rushing yards [1,485], and rushing touchdowns [11] last season. He also led the league with 92.8 rushing yards per game. Peterson also played every game for the Minnesota Vikings in 2015.
SEE RANKINGS BELOW
What the experts are saying:
ESPN’s Ken Daube: “It should be a rare draft that does not see Antonio Brown taken first overall among receivers,” Daube wrote. “He hasn’t just been a model of consistency; he’s been a model of dominant consistency. Over the past two seasons, Brown has scored double-digit fantasy points in 24 of his 32 games. Those numbers will continue, as Brown has been targeted nine or more times in every game that Ben Roethlisberger has started since Week 1 of 2014. He’s as safe and productive as they come.”
“In those cases where Brown doesn’t go first at the position, Odell Beckham Jr. should claim that honor, as he has been an elite producer since he became a significant part of the New York Giants’ offensive game plan in Week 9 of the 2014 season. In those 24 games, he has averaged seven-plus catches, to go with 110 yards and nearly a touchdown per game,” Daube wrote.
Daube included Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins in the “Elite Tier,” but put Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson, A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, and Brandon Marshall in the next tier. ESPN’s fantasy staff ranked Brown before Beckham in its top 300 rankings, at No.1 and No.2 overall, respectively.
CBS Sports senior fantasy write Dave Richard: Richard ranks Beckham as his No. 1 wide receiver, while writers Jamey Eisenberg and Heath Cummings have Brown as the top pass catcher. Eisenberg has Beckham slotted at No. 2, while Cummings has him at No. 3, behind Jones. Richard has Todd Gurley as his top fantasy player this season, ahead of Beckham, while Eisenberg has Brown as his top pick for 2016.
“If you’re picking very early in Round 1 in a PPR league it’s worth it to wait on running back and lock up an elite wide receiver,” Richard wrote. “Odell Beckham certainly qualifies as elite with 15-plus PPR Fantasy points in 21 of 28 career games.”
“There’s just no denying his talent, his track record, his quarterback, pretty much everything but his dating choices (and even then…),” Richard wrote. “If the whole point of a first-round pick is to take someone you feel confident in starting and getting big points from each week, Beckham’s a great way to go no matter the format.”
Yahoo! Sports’ Brandon Funston: “All [Beckham] has done in his first two seasons is score 25 TDs in 27 games while posting averages of 93.5 catches and 1,377.5 yards – the only concern now is that CB Josh Norman will get to face him twice this season as a member of Washington.”
Funston declared Beckham his No. 1 overall player for 2016 in his Big Board 50 rankings in December. He followed Beckham with Brown, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, and Jones.
“RB injury rate in ’15 has me running right into the arms of a WR for the top pick, and that WR is ODB, who (at 23) is perfect blend of talent, mileage and situation – 25 TDs in 1st 26 NFL games,” Funston wrote.
Scroll down for the rest of the UPI 150 rankings. Stats via Pro Football Reference.
Bye – Denotes bye week
% IR – Denotes percentage of career player played 12 games or less in a season
$ – Denotes games vs. worst 5 defenses in fantasy points allowed to position in 2015
X –Denotes games vs. top 5 defenses in points allowed to position in 2015
Rank/Name/Position/Team/Bye/IR%/$/X
2016 UPI 150
1. Odell Beckham Jr. | WR/New York Giants (8)/50% IR – $$$$$$$/X
2. Antonio Brown | WR/Pittsburgh Steelers (8)/16% IR – $$$$$$
3. Adrian Peterson | RB/Minnesota Vikings (6)/22% IR – $
4. Julio Jones | WR/Atlanta Falcons (11)/20% IR – $/XXXX
5. Todd Gurley | RB/Los Angeles Rams (8)/0% IR – $$$$/XXXX
6. Dez Bryant | WR/Dallas Cowboys (7)/16% IR – $$$$$$$
7. Le’Veon Bell | RB/Pittsburgh Steelers (8)/33% IR – $/XX
8. Ezekiel Elliott | RB/Dallas Cowboys (7)/0% IR – $$$/X
9. David Johnson | RB/Arizona Cardinals (9)/0% IR – $$$/XXXX
10. DeAndre Hopkins | WR/Houston Texans (9)/0% IR – XX
11. Mark Ingram | RB/New Orleans Saints (5)/60% IR – $$/XX
12. Eddie Lacy | RB/Green Bay Packers (4)/0% IR – $/X
13. Jordy Nelson | WR/Green Bay Packers (4)/25% IR – $$/XX
14. Rob Gronkowski | TE/New England Patriots (9)/33% IR – XX
15. LeSean McCoy | RB/Buffalo Bills (10)/28% IR – $$/XXXXX
16. Thomas Rawls | RB/Seattle Seahawks (5)/0% IR – $$$$$/XX
17. DeVonta Freeman | RB/Atlanta Falcons (11)/0% IR – $$$$$/XX
18. A.J. Green | WR/Cincinnati Bengals (9)/0% IR – $$$$$$$$/X
19. Jamaal Charles | RB/Kanas City Chiefs (5)/25% IR – $$$/XX
20. Alshon Jeffery | WR/Chicago Bears (9)/50% IR – $$
21. Brandon Marshall | WR/New York Jets (11)/0% IR – $$$/XX
22. Sammy Watkins | WR/Buffalo Bills (10)/0% IR – $$$/XX
23. Doug Martin | RB/Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6)/50% IR – $$$/XX
24. Lamar Miller | RB/Houston Texans (8)/0% IR – $/XX
25. Allen Robinson | WR/Jacksonville Jaguars (5)/50% IR – $/XX
26. Mike Evans | WR/Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6)/0% IR- XXXXXX
27. Amari Cooper | WR/Oakland Raiders (10)/0% IR – $/XXXXX
28. Doug Baldwin | WR/Seattle Seahawks (5)/0% IR – $/XXX
29. Jordan Reed | TE/Washington Redskins (9)/66% IR – $$$/XXX
30. Matt Forte | RB/New York Jets (11)/12% IR – $$$/XXXXX
31. Cam Newton | QB/Carolina Panthers (7)/0% IR – $$/XX
32. Aaron Rodgers | QB/Green Bay Packers (4)/12% – $$$/X
33. Demaryius Thomas | WR/Denver Broncos (11)/33% IR – XXX
34. Keenan Allen | WR/San Diego Chargers (11)/33% IR – $/XXX
35. Carlos Hyde | RB/San Francisco 49ers (8)/50% IR – XXX
36. T.Y. Hilton | WR/Indianapolis Colts (10)/0% IR – $/XX
37. Jonathan Stewart | RB/Carolina Panthers (7)/25% IR – $$$$/XX
38. Kelvin Benjamin | WR/Carolina Panthers (7)/50% IR – $/XXXXXX
39. Brandin Cooks | WR/New Orleans Saints (5)/50% IR – XXXXXX
40. Julian Edelman | WR/New England Patriots (9)/42% IR – $$$/XXX
41. Dion Lewis | RB/New England Patriots (9)/66% IR – $$$/XXXX
42. Jeremy Hill | RB/Cincinnati Bengals (9)/0% IR – $$/XXXX
43. C.J. Anderson | RB/Denver Broncos (11)/33% IR – $$$/XXX
44. Randall Cobb | WR/Green Bay Packers (4)/20% IR – $$/XX
45. Jarvis Landry | WR/Miami Dolphins (8)/0% IR – $$$/XXX
46. Golden Tate | WR/Detroit Lions (10)/16% IR – $$/X
47. Russell Wilson | QB/Seattle Seahawks (5)/0% IR – $$/X
48. Eric Decker | WR/New York Jets (11)/0% IR – $$$/XX
49. Michael Floyd | WR/Arizona Cardinals (9)/0% IR – $/XXXXX
50. Josh Gordon | WR/Cleveland Browns (13)/33% IR – $$$/X
51. Jeremy Maclin | WR/Kansas City Chiefs (5)/0% IR – $/XXXXX
52. Greg Olsen | TE/Carolina Panthers (7)/0% IR – $$$$/X
53. Emmanuel Sanders | WR/Denver Broncos (11)/16% IR – XXX
54. Jeremy Langford | RB/Chicago Bears (9)/0% IR – $$
55. DeVante Parker | WR/Miami Dolphins (8)/0% IR – $$$/XXX
56. Latavius Murray | RB/Oakland Raiders (10)/0% IR – $$$/XX
57. Larry Fitzgerald | WR/Arizona Cardinals (9)/0% IR – $/XXXXX
58. DeMarco Murray | RB/Tennessee Titans (13)/20% IR – $$/X
59. Ryan Mathews | RB/Philadelphia Eagles (4)/50% IR – XX
60. Matt Jones | RB/Washington Redskins (9)/0% IR – $$/X
61. Carson Palmer | QB/Arizona Cardinals (9)/25% IR – $/XXX
62. Andrew Luck | QB/Indianapolis Colts (10)/25% IR – $$/XX
63. Delanie Walker | TE/Tennessee Titans (13)/10% IR – $$/X
64. T.J. Yeldon | RB/Jacksonville Jaguars (5)/100% IR – $/X
65. Duke Johnson Jr. | RB/Cleveland Browns (13)/0% IR – $$/XXXX
66. Justin Forsett | RB/Baltimore Ravens (8)/25% IR – $$/XXXX
67. Drew Brees | QB/New Orleans Saints – $/XXXXX
68. Jordan Matthews | WR/Philadelphia Eagles – $$$$$/XX
69. John Brown | WR/Arizona Cardinals – $/XXXXX
70. Giovani Bernard | RB/Cincinnati Bengals – $$/XXXX
71. Melvin Gordon | RB/San Diego Chargers – $$/XX
72. DeAngelo Williams | RB/Pittsburgh Steelers – $$/XXX
73. Frank Gore | RB/Indianapolis Colts – $/XXX
74. Ben Roethlisberger | QB/Pittsburgh Steelers – $$$$/XXX
75. Tom Brady | QB/New England Patriots – $/XXX
76. DeSean Jackson | WR/Washington Redskins – $$$$$
77. Ameer Abdullah | RB/Detroit Lions – $$
78. Danny Woodhead | RB/San Diego Chargers – $$/XX
79. Rashad Jennings | RB/New York Giants – $$$/X
80. Michael Crabtree | WR/Oakland Raiders – $/XXXXX
81. Donte Moncrief | WR/Indianapolis Colts – $/XX
82. Allen Hurns | WR/Jacksonville Jaguars – $/XX
83. Marvin Jones | WR/Detroit Lions – $$/X
84. Eli Manning | QB/New York Giants – $$$$/X
85. Stefon Diggs | WR/Minnesota Vikings – $$
86. Tyler Lockett | WR/Seattle Seahawks – $/XXX
87. Kevin White | WR/Chicago Bears – $$
88. Blake Bortles | QB/Jacksonville Jaguars – XX
89. Philip Rivers | QB/San Diego Chargers – $$$/XXXXX
90. Sterling Shepard | WR/New York Giants – $$$$$$$/X
91. Tyler Eifert | TE/Cincinnati Bengals – XXXXX
92. Travis Kelce | TE/Kansas City Chiefs – $$$$/X
93. Jay Ajayi | RB/Miami Dolphins – $$/XXXXXX
94. Torrey Smith | WR/San Francisco 49ers – XXXXX
95. Vincent Jackson | WR/Tampa Bay Buccaneers – XXXXXX
96. Arian Foster | RB/Miami Dolphins – $$/XXXXXX
97. Coby Fleener | TE/New Orleans Saints – $$$$$/X
98. Chris Ivory | RB/Jacksonville Jaguars – $/X
99. LaQuon Treadwell | WR/Minnesota Vikings – $$
100. Derrick Henry | RB/Tennessee Titans – $$/X
101. LeGarrette Blount | RB/New England Patriots – $$$/XXXX
102. Dorial Green-Beckham | WR/Tennessee Titans – $/XX
103. Theo Riddick | RB/Detroit Lions – $$
104. Tevin Coleman | RB/Atlanta Falcons – $$$$$/XX
105. Steve Smith Sr. | WR/Baltimore Ravens – $$$$$$
106. Kenneth Dixon | RB/Baltimore Ravens – $$/XXXX
107. Gary Barnidge | TE/Cleveland Browns – $/XXXXX
108. Tavon Austin | WR/Los Angeles Rams – XXX
109. Zach Ertz | TE/Philadelphia Eagles – $$$$/XXX
110. Charles Sims | RB/Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $$$/XX
111. Corey Coleman | WR/Cleveland Browns – $$$$$$/X
112. Will Fuller | WR/Houston Texans – XX
113. Mike Wallace | WR/Baltimore Ravens – $$$$$$
114. Jordan Howard | RB/Chicago Bears – $$
115. Ladarius Green | TE/Pittsburgh Steelers – $/XXXXXX
116. Michael Thomas | WR/New Orleans Saints – XXXXX
117. Markus Wheaton | WR/Pittsburgh Steelers – $$$$$$
118. Kirk Cousins | QB/Washington Redskins – $$$$$/XX
119. Tony Romo | QB/Dallas Cowboys – $$$$$/X
120. Charcandrick West | RB/Kansas City Chiefs – $$$/XX
121. C.J. Prosise | RB/Seattle Seahawks – $$$$$/XX
122. Isaiah Crowell | RB/Cleveland Browns – $$$/XXXX
123. Phillip Dorsett | WR/Indianapolis Colts – $/XX
124. Nelson Agholor | WR/Philadelphia Eagles – $$$$$/XX
125. Chris Hogan | WR/New England Patriots – $$$/XXX
126. Josh Doctson | WR/Washington Redskins – $$$$$
127. Bilal Powell | RB/New York Jets – $$$/XXXXX
128. Andy Dalton | QB/Cincinnati Bengals – $$$$/X
129. Tyrod Taylor | QB/Buffalo Bills – $$/XX
130. Derek Carr | QB/Oakland Raiders – $$/XXXXX
131. Julius Thomas | TE/Jacksonville Jaguars – $$/XX
132. Devontae Booker | RB/Denver Broncos $$$/XXX
133. James Starks | RB/Green Bay Packers – $/X
134. Mohamed Sanu | WR/Atlanta Falcons – $/XXXX
135. Matthew Stafford | QB/Detroit Lions – $$$$
136. Darren Sproles | RB/Philadelphia Eagles – XX
137. Martellus Bennett | TE/New England Patriots – XX
138. Kansas City Chiefs | DEF
139. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins | TE/Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $$$$$/X
140. Carolina Panthers | DEF
141. Denver Broncos | DEF
142. Zach Miller | TE/Chicago Bears – $$$/X
143. Seattle Seahawks | DEF
144. Houston Texans | DEF
145. Cincinnati Bengals | DEF
146. Arizona Cardinals | DEF
147. Green Bay Packers | DEF
148. New York Jets | DEF
149. Steven Hauschka | K
150. Stephen Gostkowski | K
2016 NFL Bye Weeks
Week 4 Green Bay, Philadelphia
Week 5 Jacksonville, Kansas City, New Orleans, Seattle
Week 6 Minnesota, Tampa Bay
Week 7 Carolina, Dallas
Week 8 Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
Week 9 Arizona, Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, New England, Washington
Week 10 Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis, Oakland
Week 11 Atlanta, Denver, NY Jets, San Diego
Week 13 Cleveland, Tennessee
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