MIAMI, Aug. 19 (UPI) — Tropical Storm Danny grew in strength overnight and the disturbance is expected to continue building as it moves closer to the Caribbean.
The 5-day forecast track has shifted slightly to the north, which would point the storm to the north end of the Lesser Antilles by Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center based in Miami. Puerto Rico could see some effects by Tuesday if the current track holds. No watches or warnings are in effect.
The storm is forecast to become a hurricane Thursday and reach Category 2 strength with 100-plus mph winds on Friday night and Saturday before weakening slightly on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are currently at 50 mph.
NHC reports the storm’s cloud pattern did not change much overnight, with intermittent convection at the storm’s center. Good convection at the center helps the development of an eye wall, a sign of a strong, well organized hurricane.
The only obstacle for Danny in the next few days is dry Saharan air on its northern edge. Upper atmosphere wind shear, which prevents storm formation and limits strength, is very light.
NHC reports most of its computer models forecast moderate strengthening, with only one model predicting Danny will reach “major” hurricane status by Saturday. A major storm is Category 3 or higher, with winds greater than 110 mph.
Next week, Danny would move into an area with higher wind shear, which could significantly weaken it. It also would be more affected by a high pressure ridge building in the Atlantic, which would pick up its speed. It’s too early to predict whether the storm would have any effect on the U.S. mainland.
Meanwhile in the Pacific, Typhoons Goni and Atsani continue to churn. Goni’s forecast track predicts an abrupt shift to the north on Friday, avoiding both the Philippines and Taiwan, wavering between Category 2 and 3 strength. Atsani is forecast to reach Category 3 strength by Saturday, before quickly turning to the northeast, away from mainland Japan.
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