MIAMI, Aug. 26 (UPI) — Tropical Storm Erika became more organized overnight as it heads toward the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, with Florida possibly in its path.
National Hurricane Center forecasters remain unsure how strong Erika will become in the short-term, with computer models suggesting the storm either will quickly strengthen or come apart in the next three days. Forecasters are taking a middle ground, predicting Erika will slowly strengthen in the next three days and then grow more rapidly in days 4-5, reaching hurricane strength right off Fort Lauderdale and Miami, Fla. at 2 a.m. Monday.
Sustained winds Wednesday morning were estimated at 45 mph. New tropical storm warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and several other islands in the northeastern
Caribbean.
Erika is looking much more impressive than Hurricane Danny, a tiny storm that blew up into a Category 3 hurricane before quickly dissipating as it encountered wind shear and dry air in the northeast Caribbean. Weather Underground meteorologist Bob Henson says Erika’s large size will help protect it from those limiting factors.
A barrier of strong wind shear in its path and mountains in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola could cause Erika to weaken significantly, but if Erika makes it over the Bahamas as a well organized tropical storm, it could intensify rapidly over the warm waters and little wind shear, Henson said.
Computer models are in agreement for Erika’s path in the next three days, but they begin to diverge at days 4 and 5 in the forecast period, which is critical for knowing whether the storm will affect nearly 6 million people living in a thin strip of land from Miami to West Palm Beach, Fla. But NHC forecasters cautioned that their forecast track errors over the past five years are 180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5. For Erika, that means on Monday it could be anywhere from moving into the Gulf near the Keys to moving into the open Atlantic off Florida’s east coast.
The next update on Erika will come late Wednesday morning, Eastern time.
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