After 14-point underdog Louisville defeated SEC powerhouse Florida in Wednesday’s Sugar Bowl, the SEC’s supremacy was questioned. Earlier in the bowl season, Mississippi State lost by 14, LSU was upset and then Florida was stunned in the biggest upset in BCS history. Critics are suggesting that the SEC’s 3-3 record to date suggest the conference may be slipping. Analytics have the answer. And, based on the numbers, the SEC, as of now, is as dominant as any conference has ever been.
The problem with using bowl records to compare conferences is pretty obvious. The 5th or 8th best team in a bad conference is not in a bowl game. Looking at the Power Rankings on www.masseyratings.com, you cannot logically say that if the Big Ten’s 5th best team (Northwestern) beats the SEC’s 10th best team, that this indicates the Big Ten is a better conference. Nor can you say that the ACC’s 2nd best team (Clemson) rallying for a 1-point win against the SEC’s 6th best team indicates the ACC is a better conference.
The system I have always used to rate conferences against each other is to compare the Massey Ratings between the conferences #1 teams, then between their #2 teams etc., all the way down to #10. The Big 12 has only 10 teams, and I lumped every team not in one of the five major conferences after realignment into their own “Other” conference, with Notre Dame in 1st and Utah State in 2nd, etc. A table below shows how each conference would fair against the other conferences under this format.
When the ACC’s 5th best team after realignment (Louisville) upsets the SEC’s 4th best team (Florida), that is big news. Louisville was a 14-point underdog, and only 17% of 14-point underdogs win. They were an even steeper 22-point underdog based on the Massey Power ratings, and only 9% of 22-point underdogs win.
We now have the SEC’s #2 team Texas A&M going up against the Big 12s #2 team Oklahoma on Friday, and, of course, the SEC’s #1 team Alabama against the top team in the “Other” Conference, Notre Dame, in the BCS title game on Monday.
So these are the true apples-to-apples comparisons that tell us which conference is ahead.
While losses in those two games would go a long way to those who want parity – rather than SEC dominance – back in football – the numbers show the SEC is still the dominant conference.
Based on Massey, Alabama would be favored to beat the #1 team from either of the other four major conferences as well as Notre Dame.
Texas A&M would likewise be favored to beat the five other #2 teams, so the SEC would be 10-0. What is really scary this year is that if you run through all 10 teams, every SEC team is better than their counterparts, so they would literally be the favorite in all 50 games. That does not really mean they would go 50-0 of course, because a 3-point favorite only wins 59% of the time, etc., but if the favorites won every game, the SEC would be 50-0 and the ACC would be 2-48. In fact, when you run the percentages the SEC would probably go something like 33-17 and the ACC the reverse, but the following tables still paint a picture of SEC dominance that Notre Dame and Oklahoma will try to topple.
| Conf Rn | Team | New Conference | Est. Pow | Proj Wins | Proj Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida St | Atlantic Coast | 65.56 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Clemson | Atlantic Coast | 63.77 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Syracuse | Atlantic Coast | 57.16 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 | Georgia Tech | Atlantic Coast | 55.38 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Louisville | Atlantic Coast | 55.21 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh | Atlantic Coast | 55.09 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Miami FL | Atlantic Coast | 53.23 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | North Carolina | Atlantic Coast | 52.39 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Virginia Tech | Atlantic Coast | 50.69 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | NC State | Atlantic Coast | 48.78 | 0 | 5 |
| Conference record | Atlantic Coast | 2 | 48 | ||
| Conf Rn | Team | New Conference | Est. Pow | Proj Wins | Proj Loss |
| 1 | Ohio St | Big 10 | 65.35 | 0 | 5 |
| 2 | Wisconsin | Big 10 | 63.76 | 0 | 5 |
| 3 | Michigan | Big 10 | 62.72 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Nebraska | Big 10 | 61.65 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Northwestern | Big 10 | 60.92 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Penn St | Big 10 | 60.16 | 3 | 2 |
| 7 | Michigan St | Big 10 | 59.68 | 4 | 1 |
| 8 | Rutgers | Big 10 | 53.99 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Iowa | Big 10 | 49.5 | 3 | 2 |
| 10 | Minnesota | Big 10 | 47.35 | 0 | 5 |
| Conference record | Big 10 | 16 | 34 | ||
| Conf Rn | Team | New Conference | Est. Pow | Proj Wins | Proj Loss |
| 1 | Notre Dame | Other | 72.84 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Utah St | Other | 65.26 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | BYU | Other | 63.37 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | San Jose St | Other | 59.77 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Boise St | Other | 57.4 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Cincinnati | Other | 57.08 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | UCF | Other | 55.42 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Louisiana Tech | Other | 55.38 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | N Illinois | Other | 55.37 | 3 | 2 |
| 10 | Tulsa | Other | 54.19 | 4 | 1 |
| Conference record | Other | 19 | 31 | ||
| Conf Rn | Team | New Conference | Est. Pow | Proj Wins | Proj Loss |
| 1 | Oregon | Pac 12 | 78.74 | 4 | 1 |
| 2 | Stanford | Pac 12 | 68.37 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | Oregon St | Pac 12 | 65.56 | 3 | 2 |
| 4 | USC | Pac 12 | 62.38 | 3 | 2 |
| 5 | Arizona St | Pac 12 | 62.09 | 3 | 2 |
| 6 | UCLA | Pac 12 | 59.05 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Arizona | Pac 12 | 58.28 | 3 | 2 |
| 8 | Washington | Pac 12 | 56.42 | 3 | 2 |
| 9 | Utah | Pac 12 | 51.87 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | California | Pac 12 | 48.84 | 2 | 3 |
| Conference record | Pac 12 | 27 | 23 | ||
| Conf Rn | Team | New Conference | Est. Pow | Proj Wins | Proj Loss |
| 1 | Kansas St | Big 12 | 73.32 | 3 | 2 |
| 2 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 70.26 | 4 | 1 |
| 3 | Oklahoma St | Big 12 | 69.56 | 4 | 1 |
| 4 | Baylor | Big 12 | 64.96 | 4 | 1 |
| 5 | Texas | Big 12 | 64.13 | 4 | 1 |
| 6 | TCU | Big 12 | 61.26 | 4 | 1 |
| 7 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 57.3 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 56.65 | 4 | 1 |
| 9 | Iowa St | Big 12 | 56.01 | 4 | 1 |
| 10 | Kansas | Big 12 | 44.99 | 1 | 4 |
| Conference record | Big 12 | 34 | 16 | ||
| Conf Rn | Team | New Conference | Est. Pow | Proj Wins | Proj Loss |
| 1 | Alabama | Southeastern | 80.49 | 5 | 0 |
| 2 | Texas A&M | Southeastern | 74.38 | 5 | 0 |
| 3 | Georgia | Southeastern | 73.61 | 5 | 0 |
| 4 | Florida | Southeastern | 70.92 | 5 | 0 |
| 5 | South Carolina | Southeastern | 70.39 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | LSU | Southeastern | 69.05 | 5 | 0 |
| 7 | Vanderbilt | Southeastern | 62.03 | 5 | 0 |
| 8 | Mississippi | Southeastern | 60.01 | 5 | 0 |
| 9 | Missouri | Southeastern | 57.83 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 | Mississippi St | Southeastern | 56.53 | 5 | 0 |
| Conference record | Southeastern | 50 | 0 |
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