Breitbart Sports will focus on major sports drafts, where the business of sports starts. Cole Muzio presents his NFL mock draft today. Rookie ratings at the NBA All-Star break indicate Rob Lowe and I are coming off a very successful NBA draft in which we were right in our advice to NBA clubs on 32 picks, while we missed on only 13 – guidance worth millions of dollars to the bottom line as teams are obligated to pay at least $1.7 million for the 30th pick in the draft, and $8.8 million for the first pick. Here is how every pick has done, and if our guidance was right or wrong:
Draft | Our grade | Actual | PLAYER | Min. 2-year | Did we get it Right or Wrong? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | A | 2 | Anthony Davis | $8,766,700 | Right – he is Number 2 only because of injuries. |
2 | D | 9 | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $7,843,800 | Right – we were sure Jordan had again gotten overexcited about an NCAA champ. |
3 | A | 14 | Bradley Beal | $7,043,800 | Wrong – he has not quite measured up. |
4 | C- | 13 | Dion Waiters | $6,350,700 | Right – we said 4 was simply too high, and it has been. |
5 | A | 24 | Thomas Robinson | $5,750,900 | Wrong – we thought he measured up to his 5th pick status, and he has not been there. |
6 | D | 6 | Damian Lillard | $5,223,300 | Wrong – thought he was too high, and he has measured up. |
7 | D | 18 | Harrison Barnes | $4,768,300 | Right – We said seventh was way too high, and it has been. |
8 | C- | 25 | Terrence Ross | $4,368,300 | Right – We said 8th was too high, and it has been. |
9 | C | 1 | Andre Drummond | $4,015,600 | Wrong – NBA officials assured me his attributes trumped his stats – they were right. |
10 | C- | 33 | Austin Rivers | $3,814,500 | Right – we said 10th was way too high, and he has played like a 2nd rounder. |
11 | A | 15 | Meyers Leonard | $3,623,900 | Jury still out – while his 15th rank this year is slightly behind being the 11th pick, a bad ankle injury slowed him and we believe he will move into the top 10 players.. |
12 | C | Jeremy Lamb | $3,442,800 | Right – his college stats did not measure up to a 12th pick, and he is only playing four minutes. | |
13 | C- | Kendall Marshall | $3,270,600 | Right – we said “overrated” all year and 2.1 points and 1.5 assists a game is not much. | |
14 | A | 3 | John Henson | $3,107,200 | Right – we said an absolute steal at 14th pick, and he has been 3rd best player. |
15 | C | 16 | Moe Harkless | $2,951,500 | Right – we said 15th was almost exactly right, and it has been. |
16 | C- | Royce White | $2,804,100 | Right – way to high as a 16th pick and now in D-League. | |
17 | A | 22 | Tyler Zeller | $2,663,800 | Wrong – we thought he would be even better than 17th pick. |
18 | A | Terrence Jones | $2,530,700 | Wrong – only three points and two rebounds a game not much for an 18th pick. | |
19 | C- | 5 | Andrew Nicholson | $2,416,800 | Wrong – he is actually better than the 19th round pick used. |
20 | NA | Evan Fournier | $2,320,100 | NA – we do not rate foreign prospects | |
21 | A | 11 | Jared Sullinger | $2,227,200 | Right – we said a steal at 21st, and he has been at 11th best though the injury loomed again. |
22 | C | Fab Melo | $2,138,300 | Right – did not see him making impact in his first year. | |
23 | D | 19 | John Jenkins | $2,052,800 | Wrong – he has been solid for 23rd pick. |
24 | C- | Jared Cunningham | $1,970,600 | Right – thought he was too high, and just 2 ppg in 8 games not enough for a first rounder. | |
25 | D | Tony Wroten | $1,891,800 | Right – 3 points and 2 assists a game not enough for a first rounder. | |
26 | B | Miles Plumlee | $1,829,000 | Wrong – we thought Mason’s brother was ready to produce more than 1 point/1 rebound. | |
27 | A | Arnett Moultrie | $1,776,300 | Jury out – hardly played until last five games, during which he has averaged 6 pts/5 reb. | |
28 | C | Perry Jones | $1,765,400 | Wrong – we thought this was about where he should be picked – but he has been very poor. | |
29 | C | Marquis Teague | $1,752,600 | Right – another overrated NCAA champ averaging 2 points and 1 assist a game. | |
30 | C | 28 | Festus Ezeli | $1,739,900 | Right – we thought that was about right and it was almost exact. |
31 | C+ | 26 | Jeffery Taylor | Right – we said he should be a little better than 31st pick, and he has been. | |
32 | NA | Tomas Santoransky | NA – we do not rate foreign prospects | ||
33 | C | 7 | Bernard James | Wrong – he has played like a lottery pick. | |
34 | A | 20 | Jae Crowder | Right – we said he was a steal at 34th, and he has been the 20th best. | |
35 | A | 27 | Draymond Green | Right – we said he was better than a 35th pick, and he has been. | |
36 | D | Orlando Johnson | Jury out – has played ok in limited action. | ||
37 | C | Quincy Acy | Jury out – just 8 minutes a game, but has played decently during that time. | ||
38 | B | Quincy Miller | Wrong – only played two games all year. | ||
39 | D | Khris Middleton | Right – there were much better prospects, and he has hardly played. | ||
40 | A | 30 | Will Barton | Right – we thought he was a 2nd round pick that oculd make it, and he has. | |
41 | D | Tyshawn Taylor | Right – With more turnovers than assists there were better options. | ||
42 | C+ | Doron Lamb | Jury out – has hardly played. | ||
43 | B | Mike Scott | Right – for this late, Scott has been good when put in (2 pts/3 reb in just 8 minutes per game) | ||
44 | B | Kim English | Right – just like Scott, 2 points and a rebound in 8 minutes a game is solid for this late. | ||
45 | F | Justin Hamilton | Right – we said a terrible pick, and he didn’t see the time of day. | ||
46 | F | 31 | Darius Miller | Right – he has played, but in the bottom few of all rookies. | |
47 | F | Kevin Murphy | Right – we didn’t like this pick, and he has hit less than a third of his shots in 1 min/game. | ||
48 | NA | Kostas Papanikolaou | NA – we do not rate foreign prospects | ||
49 | A | Kyle O’Quinn | Right -more minutes would rank him 3rd in PER behind only Drummond/Davis – 54% FG%. | ||
50 | NA | Izzet Turkyilmaz | NA – we do not rate foreign prospects | ||
51 | D | Kris Joseph | Jury out – only 7 minutes a game, but would rank 20th if more minutes. | ||
52 | NA | Ognjen Kuzmic | NA – we do not rate foreign prospects | ||
53 | NA | Furkan Aldemir | NA – we do not rate foreign prospects | ||
54 | NA | Tornike Shengelia | NA – we do not rate foreign prospects | ||
55 | C | Darius Johnson-Odom | Right – we hated to say it, but did not have him as a draft pick and he was cut. | ||
56 | NA | Tomislav Zubcic | NA – we do not rate foreign prospects | ||
57 | NA | Ilkan Karaman | NA – we do not rate foreign prospects | ||
58 | C | Robbie Hummel | Right – we said we could not see him making it, and he has not. | ||
59 | A | Marcus Denmon | NA – we do not rate foreign prospects | ||
60 | D | Robert Sacre | Wrong – his PER is very low, but he did make the team – which we doubted. |
The business of sports starts with t he pro drafts. NBA team can spend anywhere between $200,000 and $500,000 per win based on picking the right employees (players) and paying the right salaries within the cap.
Last year we revealed to select NBA team officials the results of a more advanced “Value Add NBA Indicators” that indicated how many wins – which translate into money – each potential draftee should bring them. On draft night, we released this information publicly real-time after each draft (see 1st round and 2nd round real-time).
The table below notes where they were picked, and where they rank among the 33 rookies with enough minutes to qualify based on ESPN’s Player Efficiency Rating. We then note whether we were right or wrong on each player – was he worth more than the salary they had to guarantee that spot (and “A” or “B”) so that we thought they had a steal, or did they make the pick too high (a “C” or lower), meaning they could have gotten much better value for their investment.
The jury is still out on a few, such as the Trail Blazers Meyers Leonard (pictured), who we believe was a great choice with the 11th pick. He injured his ankle badly, and is still the 15th best player according to PER, so we expect he will finish in the top 10, but cannot claim him as a “Right” yet.
The owners were once again good on picks 1 through 9, but starting with the 10th pick, in almost every case the player we recommended has done better than the player actually selected. In fact, we nailed 31 picks, to only 13 misses.
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