The oddsmakers are giving the Miami Heat about a 90 percent chance of winning the East even though they do not play Game 1 until Wednesday, and history says the San Antonio Spurs have a 94.6 percent chance of winning the West after surviving a furious rally by the Grizzlies to take a 2-0 lead. Put them together, and there is more than an 80 percent chance that the Finals will pit the Heat against the Spurs.
Based on the “who wins” website that tracks all series in the major sports, when an NBA team takes the first two games at home, they have gone 209-12 in the series. The Grizzlies are an excellent home team, and the odds are in their favor of closing the series to 2-1, and teams that fall behind 2-0 on the road still go onto win their first home game of the series 60.6 percent of the time (134-87 record in that game for the team in Memphis position).
The odds of the Grizzlies winning Game 2 on Tuesday were probably even lower when they fell behind by 18 points in the third quarter, but they caem all the way back to force overtime. However Tim Duncan hit a crucial runner in overtime to give the Spurs a 91-87 lead in overtime in route to a 93-89 win. Duncan also turned the tables on the NBA’s defensive player of the year, rejecting Marc Gasol in a crucial moment.
Stats aside, Magic Johnson stated on ESPN in post-game comments that Memphis fourth quarter surge and dominance on the boards (60-46 rebounding edge) gives them a chance.