Trey Burke leads the list below of the top Sr. Value Adds using the Advanced formula reviewed by select NBA teams last year. Only 10 players have recorded a better Sr. Value Add and five have become superstars, four have been strong NBA players, and only one has been a disappointing reserve. Despite being undersized, Burke’s odds look very strong for a great NBA career.
Value Add goes back to 2005-06 season, and Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, James Harden and Stephen Curry had higher Sr. Value Adds and went on to be NBA Superstars. Sheldon Williams (10.4 pts./10.1 reb), Michael Beasley (14.1/5.2) and Anthony Davis (13.5/8.2) have strong numbers. Jared Sullinger played limited minutes due to injury (6.0/5.9), leaving only the Spurs DeJuan Blair (7.8/5.8) as a mediocre player.The advanced formula for Sr. Value Add adjusts the Offensive and Defensive Value Add figures found at www.valueaddbasketball.com based on the following table:
| Adjustment for | Off | Def | Improvement Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| current freshman | 4.06 | 1.56 | 5.00 |
| current sophomore | 1.65 | 1.35 | 4.00 |
| current junior | 1.13 | 1.16 | 3.00 |
| current senior | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
When applied to this season’s players, the following are the Sr. Value Add leaders, which are doubled when weighting against other factors to determine the players most likely to succeed in the NBA. CJ McCollom’s 2012 season was used since he broke his foot early in 2013, and estimates were made for European players. Unlike in an earlier post outlining the more basic formula, these ratings do not give Nerlens Noel credit for his games missed than injury – otherwise he would have been one of the top few Sr. Value Adds of all time.
| Rnk | Fname | Lname | Team | VA | Class | Sr. VA | Draft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey | Burke | Michigan | 11.93 | So | 14.93 | 30 |
| 2 | Otto | Porter | Georgetown | 10.44 | So | 13.44 | 27 |
| 3 | Ben | McLemore | Kansas | 7.39 | Fr | 13.39 | 27 |
| 4 | Nerlens | Noel | Kentucky | 6.15 | Fr | 12.15 | 24 |
| 5 | Cody | Zeller | Indiana | 9.13 | So | 12.13 | 24 |
| 6 | Kentavious | Caldwell-Pope | Georgia | 9.09 | So | 12.09 | 24 |
| 7 | Anthony | Bennett | Nevada Las Vegas | 5.65 | Fr | 11.65 | 23 |
| 8 | Victor | Oladipo | Indiana | 9.68 | Jr | 10.48 | 21 |
| 9 | Michael | Carter-Williams | Syracuse | 7.83 | So | 10.28 | 21 |
| 10 | Steven | Adams | Pittsburgh | 4.25 | Fr | 10.25 | 21 |
| 11 | Erick | Green | Virginia Tech | 10.00 | Sr | 10.00 | 20 |
| 12 | Shane | Larkin | Miami FL | 6.87 | So | 9.87 | 20 |
| 13 | Shabazz | Muhammad | UCLA | 3.44 | Fr | 9.44 | 19 |
| 14 | Mason | Plumlee | Duke | 8.84 | Sr | 8.84 | 18 |
| 15 | Kelly | Olynyk | Gonzaga | 7.73 | Jr | 8.79 | 18 |
| 16 | Mike | Muscala | Bucknell | 8.76 | Sr | 8.76 | 18 |
| 17 | Nate | Wolters | South Dakota St. | 8.63 | Sr | 8.63 | 17 |
| Giannis | Adetokunbo | Filathlitikos, Intl | 17 | ||||
| 18 | Reggie | Bullock | North Carolina | 7.12 | Jr | 8.08 | 16 |
| Sergey | Karasev | Triumph Moscow, Intl | 16 | ||||
| 19 | Jeff | Withey | Kansas | 7.68 | Sr | 7.68 | 15 |
| 20 | Deshaun | Thomas | Ohio St. | 6.79 | Jr | 7.68 | 15 |
| 21 | Gorgui | Dieng | Louisville | 6.63 | Jr | 7.61 | 15 |
| 22 | Andre | Roberson | Colorado | 6.53 | Jr | 7.51 | 15 |
| Dennis | Schroeder | Braunschweig, Intl | 15 | ||||
| Rudy | Gobert | Cholet, Intl | 15 | ||||
| 23 | Allen | Crabbe | California | 6.4 | Jr | 7.27 | 15 |
| 24 | Pierre | Jackson | Baylor | 7.13 | Sr | 7.13 | 14 |
| 25 | Jamaal | Franklin | San Diego St. | 6.12 | Jr | 7.02 | 14 |
| Lucas | Nogueira | Estudiantes, Intl | 14 | ||||
| 26 | Erik | Murphy | Florida | 6.98 | Sr | 6.98 | 14 |
| 27 | Grant | Jerrett | Arizona | 1.95 | Fr | 6.92 | 14 |
| 28 | Richard | Howell | North Carolina St. | 6.9 | Sr | 6.9 | 14 |
| 29 | Ray | McCallum | Detroit | 7.6 | Jr | 6.88 | 14 |
| 30 | Peyton | Siva | Louisville | 6.57 | Sr | 6.57 | 13 |
| 31 | Seth | Curry | Duke | 6.55 | Sr | 6.55 | 13 |
| Ricky | Ledo | Providence, Fr | 13 | ||||
| 32 | James | Ennis | Long Beach St. | 6.45 | Sr | 6.45 | 13 |
| 33 | Alex | Len | Maryland | 3.69 | So | 5.72 | 11 |
| 34 | Colton | Iverson | Colorado St. | 5.56 | Sr | 5.56 | 11 |
| 35 | Jackie | Carmichael | Illinois St. | 5.51 | Sr | 5.51 | 11 |
| Glen | Rice | Rio Grande Valley, Sr | 11 | ||||
| 36 | James | Southerland | Syracuse | 5.43 | Sr | 5.43 | 11 |
| 37 | Isaiah | Canaan | Murray St. | 5.3 | Sr | 5.3 | 11 |
| 38 | Trevor | Mbakwe | Minnesota | 5.12 | Sr | 5.12 | 10 |
| 39 | Brandon | Paul | Illinois | 5.1 | Sr | 5.1 | 10 |
| 40 | Ryan | Kelly | Duke | 4.98 | Sr | 4.98 | 10 |
| 41 | Carrick | Felix | Arizona St. | 4.86 | Sr | 4.86 | 10 |
| 42 | Solomon | Hill | Arizona | 4.67 | Sr | 4.67 | 9 |
| 43 | Kenny | Kadji | Miami FL | 4.67 | Sr | 4.67 | 9 |
| 44 | Brandon | Davies | Brigham Young | 4.53 | Sr | 4.53 | 9 |
| Alex | Abrines | Barcelona, Intl | 9 | ||||
| Marko | Todorovic | Barcelona, Intl | 9 | ||||
| Nemanja | Nedovic | Lietuvos Rytas, Intl | 9 | ||||
| 45 | Archie | Goodwin | Kentucky | 1.34 | Fr | 4.44 | 9 |
| 46 | Lorenzo | Brown | North Carolina St. | 5.34 | Jr | 4.38 | 9 |
| 47 | Tim | Hardaway | Michigan | 4.09 | Jr | 4.07 | 8 |
| 48 | Dewayne | Dedmon | Southern California | 3.51 | Jr | 4.05 | 8 |
| 49 | CJ | Leslie | North Carolina St. | 3.31 | Jr | 3.78 | 8 |
| 50 | Vander | Blue | Marquette | 3.78 | Jr | 3.71 | 7 |
| 51 | Robert | Covington | Tennessee St. | 3.66 | Sr | 3.66 | 7 |
| 52 | Will | Clyburn | Iowa St. | 3.53 | Sr | 3.53 | 7 |
| Bojan | Dubljevic | Valencia, Intl | 7 | ||||
| Livio | Jean-Charles | Villeurbanne, Intl | 7 | ||||
| 53 | BJ | Young | Arkansas | 2.86 | So | 3.20 | 6 |
| 54 | Tony | Mitchell | North Texas | 2.09 | So | 3.04 | 6 |
| Augusto | Cesar Lima | Malaga, Intl | 5 | ||||
| 55 | Tony | Snell | New Mexico | 2.18 | Jr | 2.46 | 5 |
| 56 | Phil | Pressey | Missouri | 3.59 | Jr | 2.37 | 5 |
| 57 | Myck | Kabongo | Texas | 2.25 | So | 1.92 | 4 |
| 58 | Adonis | Thomas | Memphis | 0.56 | So | 1.00 | 2 |
| Joffrey | Lauvergne | Partizan, Intl | 1 | ||||
| Norvel | Pelle | La College Prep, Fr | 1 |
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