Going into Thursday’s NBA Draft (ESPN, 7 p.m. ET), Breitbart Sports completes the most comprehensive scientific projection of how much each players is likely to help his new NBA team. Previous posts have covered which player is the best physical prospect (CJ Leslie–25.3), the best college player adjusted for his class (Trey Burke–32.9) and which player projects to produce the most wins for his new team (Nerlens Noel–49). This fourth and final post weighs the best player by observation (Alex Len–50) and tallies the four scientific measurements into one figure that predicts the best player in the draft.
This is not a projection of where we believe players will be picked, but of where they SHOULD be picked based on how much they are likely to help their team. This methodology produced very accurate forecasts last year for select NBA teams. We pointed out players that were overrated, such as Austin Rivers, and the methodology was proven to be correct when Rivers was a very poor player this year – not that a team drafted him way higher than we advised the teams with whom we worked.
In mid-February, Len led Maryland to an upset of Duke by shutting Mason Plumlee down (four points, three rebounds) and scoring 19 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. While Len’s overall stats are not nearly as good as the top few players, he has received the best reviews during workouts, and gets a perfect 50 on observation, ahead of Noel’s 49, based on a combination of feedback from teams and observers that finds its way into public mock drafts.
After each player’s weight, the numbers listed are; 1) score by observation, plus 2) number of NBA wins the player is projected to produce, plus 3) his physical rating, and 4) twice his Senior Value Add as a college player to tally the final figure of his overall Draft Rating.
When adding the figures, it appears very likely that Noel is by far the best bet for the Cleveland Cavaliers when they make the first pick. Despite receiving the best reports based on observation, Len’s stats are so much weaker that he projects out as only the 20th most productive player. Historically, teams are pretty good at the first nine picks, but from picks 10 through 60 historically, these calculations are a much better predictor of how a player will produce at the NBA level than where they are actually picked by teams.
Teams would be wise to use their first round picks on these players – in order:
Rnk. Player, Team, Age/Yr, Height/Weight : Observe + Wins + Physical + Sr.VA X2 = Draft Rat.
1. Nerlens Noel C, Kentucky, 19/Fr., 7′ 0″ 206lbs.: 49 + 49 + 24.0 + 24.3 = 146.3.
2. Trey Burke PG, Michigan, 20/So., 6′ 1″ 187lbs.: 47 + 42 + 13.0 + 32.9 = 134.9.
3. Otto Porter SF, Georgetown, 20/So., 6′ 9″ 198lbs.: 47 + 44 + 12.9 + 26.9 = 130.8.
4. Cody Zeller PF/C, Indiana, 20/So., 7′ 0″ 230lbs.: 47 + 35 + 22.5 + 24.3 = 128.8.
5. Ben McLemore SG, Kansas, 20/Fr., 6′ 5″ 189lbs.: 49 + 38 + 12.5 + 27.8 = 127.3.
6. Victor Oladipo SG, Indiana, 21/Jr., 6′ 4″ 213lbs.: 48 + 36 + 19.5 + 22.0 = 125.4.
7. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG, Georgia, 20/So., 6′ 6″ 204lbs.: 42 + 40 + 16.6 + 26.2 = 124.8.
8. Anthony Bennett PF, UNLV, 20/Fr., 6′ 7″ 239lbs.: 47 + 36 + 17.0 + 23.3 = 123.3.
9. Dennis Schroeder PG, Braunschweig, 19/Intl., 6′ 2″ 165lbs.: 45 + 35 + 15.0 + 22.0 = 117.0.
10. Michael Carter-Williams PG, Syracuse, 21/So., 6′ 6″ 184lbs.: 44 + 32 + 18.0 + 22.6 = 116.6.
11. Steven Adams C, Pittsburgh, 19/Fr., 7′ 0″ 255lbs.: 43 + 36 + 15.2 + 20.5 = 114.7.
12. Giannis Adetokunbo SF, Filathlitikos, 18/Intl., 6′ 9″ 196lbs.: 44 + 34 + 16.0 + 20.0 = 114.0.
13. Gorgui Dieng C, Louisville, 23/Jr., 6′ 11″ 230lbs.: 41 + 35 + 19.0 + 15.2 = 110.2.
14. Lucas Nogueira C, Estudiantes, 20/Intl., 7′ 0″ 220lbs.: 41 + 33 + 18.0 + 18.0 = 110.0.
15. Mason Plumlee C, Duke, 23/Sr., 7′ 0″ 238lbs.: 40 + 33 + 18.8 + 17.7 = 109.5.
16. CJ McCollum PG/SG (2012), Lehigh, 21/Sr., 6′ 3″ 197lbs.: 47 + 29 + 15.0 + 17.4 = 108.4.
17. Shane Larkin PG, Miami FL, 20/So., 5′ 11″ 171lbs.: 40 + 28 + 18.0 + 20.7 = 106.7.
18. Shabazz Muhammad SF, UCLA, 20/Fr., 6′ 6″ 222lbs.: 43 + 27 + 15.7 + 18.9 = 104.6.
19. Sergey Karasev SF, Triumph Moscow, 19/Intl., 6′ 7″ 197lbs.: 40 + 32 + 15.0 + 16.0 = 103.0.
20. Alex Len C, Maryland, 20/So., 7′ 1″ 255lbs.: 50 + 19 + 21.0 + 11.4 = 101.4.
21. Erick Green PG/SG, Virginia Tech, 22/Sr., 6′ 3″ 178lbs.: 36 + 28 + 11.0 + 20.0 = 95.0.
22. Jamaal Franklin SG, San Diego State, 21/Jr., 6′ 5″ 191lbs.: 37 + 32 + 11.5 + 14.0 = 94.5.
23. Reggie Bullock SF, North Carolina, 22/Jr., 6′ 7″ 200lbs.: 35 + 29 + 12.2 + 16.2 = 92.3.
24. Rudy Gobert C, Cholet, 20/Intl., 7′ 2″ 238lbs.: 39 + 31 + 5.4 + 16.0 = 91.4.
25. Nate Wolters PG, South Dakota St, 22/Sr., 6′ 5″ 196lbs.: 39 + 24 + 10.0 + 17.2 = 90.2.
26. Andre Roberson PF, Colorado, 21/Jr., 6′ 7″ 206lbs.: 19 + 43 + 13.1 + 15.0 = 90.1.
27. Kelly Olynyk C, Gonzaga, 22/Jr., 7′ 0″ 234lbs.: 42 + 26 + 4.3 + 17.6 = 89.9.
28. Glen Rice SF, Rio Grande Valley, 22/Sr., 6′ 6″ 211lbs.: 35 + 25 + 16.4 + 12.0 = 88.4.
29. Allen Crabbe SG, California, 21/Jr., 6′ 6″ 197lbs.: 37 + 21 + 14.2 + 14.5 = 86.8.
30. Trevor Mbakwe PF, Minnesota, 24/Sr., 6′ 8″ 236lbs.: 30 + 27 + 18.3 + 10.2 = 85.5.
Starting with the second round, teams are not obligated to sign any players they pick, but normally these picks do not produce in the NBA. The best bets for Thursday’s second round are as follows:
Rnk. Player, Team, Age/Yr, Height/Weight : Observe + Wins + Physical + Sr.VA X2 = Draft Rat.
31. Jeff Withey C, Kansas, 23/Sr., 7′ 0″ 222lbs.: 35 + 29 + 5.2 + 15.4 = 84.6.
32. Mike Muscala C, Bucknell, 21/Sr., 6′ 11″ 230lbs.: 24 + 32 + 8.0 + 17.5 = 81.5.
33. Ray McCallum PG, Detroit, 22/Jr., 6′ 2″ 191lbs.: 29 + 21 + 14.0 + 16.8 = 80.8.
34. Livio Jean-Charles SF/PF, Villeurbanne, 19/Intl., 6′ 9″ 217lbs.: 33 + 20 + 15.0 + 12.0 = 80.0.
35. CJ Leslie SF/PF, N.C. State, 22/Jr., 6′ 9″ 209lbs.: 31 + 16 + 25.3 + 7.6 = 79.9.
36. Colton Iverson C, Colorado State, 23/Sr., 7′ 0″ 263lbs.: 23 + 27 + 16.8 + 11.1 = 77.9.
37. Tim Hardaway Jr SG, Michigan, 21/Jr., 6′ 6″ 185lbs.: 39 + 13 + 16.1 + 9.1 = 77.2.
38. Richard Howell PF, N.C. State, 22/Sr., 6′ 7″ 250lbs.: 18 + 32 + 13.2 + 13.8 = 77.0.
39. Ricky Ledo SG, Providence, 20/Fr., 6′ 6″ 197lbs.: 33 + 20 + 11.1 + 12.0 = 76.1.
40. Isaiah Canaan PG, Murray State, 22/Sr., 6′ 0″ 188lbs.: 33 + 15 + 17.0 + 10.6 = 75.6.
41. Peyton Siva PG, Louisville, 22/Sr., 6′ 1″ 181lbs.: 22 + 20 + 20.0 + 13.1 = 75.1.
42. Tony Mitchell PF, North Texas, 21/So., 6′ 9″ 236lbs.: 38 + 19 + 11.4 + 6.1 = 74.5.
43. Jackie Carmichael PF, Illinois State, 23/Sr., 6′ 9″ 241lbs.: 26 + 25 + 11.8 + 11.0 = 73.9.
44. Arsalan Kazemi PF, Oregon, 23/Sr., 6′ 8″ 225lbs.: 20 + 40 + 0.0 + 13.0 = 73.0.
45. James Ennis SF, Long Beach State, 22/Sr., 6′ 7″ 201lbs.: 27 + 23 + 9.6 + 12.9 = 72.5.
46. Pierre Jackson PG, Baylor, 21/Sr., 5′ 10″ 176lbs.: 31 + 20 + 6.0 + 14.3 = 71.3.
47. Grant Jerrett PF, Arizona, 19/Fr., 6′ 10″ 232lbs.: 23 + 28 + 6.2 + 13.8 = 71.1.
48. DeWayne Dedmon C, USC, 23/Jr., 6′ 11″ 239lbs.: 22 + 30 + 8.9 + 8.1 = 69.0.
49. Solomon Hill SF, Arizona, 22/Sr., 6′ 7″ 226lbs.: 24 + 15 + 20.2 + 9.3 = 68.5.
50. Carrick Felix SG, Arizona State, 22/Sr., 6′ 6″ 203lbs.: 19 + 23 + 16.3 + 9.7 = 68.0.
51. Nemanja Nedovic PG, Lietuvos Rytas, 22/Intl., 6′ 4″ 200lbs.: 23 + 17 + 19.0 + 8.0 = 67.0.
52. Erik Murphy PF, Florida, 22/Sr., 6′ 10″ 240lbs.: 26 + 24 + 3.0 + 14.0 = 67.0.
53. James Southerland SF, Syracuse, 23/Sr., 6′ 8″ 221lbs.: 22 + 23 + 11.1 + 10.9 = 67.0.
54. Tony Snell SF, New Mexico, 21/Jr., 6′ 7″ 198lbs.: 36 + 7 + 18.8 + 4.9 = 66.7.
55. Archie Goodwin SG, Kentucky, 18/Fr., 6′ 5″ 189lbs.: 30 + 13 + 13.1 + 8.9 = 64.9.
56. Bojan Dubljevic PF/C, Valencia, 21/Intl., 6′ 10″ 242lbs.: 28 + 19 + 7.0 + 10.0 = 64.0.
57. Robert Covington PF, Tennessee State, 22/Sr., 6′ 7″ 209lbs.: 24 + 21 + 11.6 + 7.3 = 63.9.
58. Kenny Kadji PF, Miami FL, 25/Sr., 6′ 10″ 242lbs.: 22 + 18 + 14.5 + 9.3 = 63.8.
59. Deshaun Thomas SF/PF, Ohio State, 21/Jr., 6′ 7″ 220lbs.: 26 + 22 + 0.0 + 15.4 = 63.4.
60. Lorenzo Brown PG, N.C. State, 22/Jr., 6′ 5″ 189lbs.: 30 + 14 + 5.3 + 11.8 = 61.1.
Years ago, the NBA Draft went on for 10 rounds, but now it stops after two rounds. It is a longshot for a player to make the league after not being drafted, but here are the best players who have some potential and would have been picked if there were still a third round.
Rnk. Player, Team, Age/Yr, Height/Weight : Observe + Wins + Physical + Sr.VA X2 = Draft Rat.
61. Ryan Kelly PF, Duke, 22/Sr., 7′ 0″ 228lbs.: 19 + 16 + 15.4 + 10.0 = 60.4.
62. Alex Abrines SG, Barcelona, 19/Intl., 6′ 5″ 190lbs.: 24 + 18 + 9.0 + 8.0 = 59.0.
63. Brandon Davies, BYU, 21/Sr., 6′ 10″ 242lbs.: 16 + 21 + 11.0 + 9.1 = 57.1.
64. Brandon Paul SG, Illinois, 22/Sr., 6′ 4″ 201lbs.: 18 + 14 + 14.3 + 10.2 = 56.5.
65. Vander Blue SG, Marquette, 20/Jr., 6′ 5″ 197lbs.: 18 + 10 + 17.5 + 8.4 = 53.9.
66. DJ Stephens PF, Memphis, 22/Sr., 6′ 5″ 187lbs.: 15 + 28 + 0.0 + 10.4 = 53.4.
67. Seth Curry SG, Duke, 22/Sr., 6′ 3″ 179lbs.: 12 + 18 + 7.5 + 13.1 = 50.6.
68. Elias Harris PF, Gonzaga, 23/Sr., 6′ 7″ 220lbs.: 6 + 30 + 0.0 + 14.0 = 50.0.
69. Myck Kabongo PG, Texas, 21/So., 6′ 3″ 180lbs.: 25 + 5 + 11.0 + 5.8 = 46.8.
70. B.J. Young PG/SG, Arkansas, 20/So., 6′ 3″ 179lbs.: 18 + 9 + 11.3 + 8.4 = 46.7.
71. Phil Pressey PG, Missouri, 22/Jr., 5′ 11″ 177lbs.: 16 + 7 + 15.0 + 7.7 = 45.7.
72. Marko Todorovic C, Barcelona, 21/Intl., 6′ 11″ 240lbs.: 16 + 10 + 11.0 + 6.0 = 43.0.
73. Ed Daniel SF/PF, Murray St., Sr., 6′ 7″ 225lbs.: 0 + 32 + 0.0 + 9.4 = 41.4.
74. Jack Cooley C, Notre Dame, 22/Sr., 6′ 9″ 244lbs.: 8 + 18 + 0.0 + 14.6 = 40.6.
75. Vitalis Chikoko C, Trier, 22/Intl., 6′ 9″ 219lbs.: 17 + 14 + 0.0 + 6.0 = 37.0.
76. Adonis Thomas SF, Memphis, 20/So., 6′ 6″ 232lbs.: 16 + 3 + 15.8 + 2.0 = 36.8.
77. Derrick Nix PF/C, Michigan St., Sr., 6′ 9″ 270lbs.: 3 + 25 + 0.0 + 8.2 = 36.2.
78. Joffrey Lauvergne PF, Partizan, 21/Intl., 6′ 11″ 240lbs.: 13 + 8 + 10.0 + 4.0 = 35.0.
79. Michael Snaer SG, Florida State, 23/Sr., 6′ 4″ 185lbs.: 16 + 10 + 0.0 + 8.9 = 34.9.
80. Will Clyburn SF, Iowa State, 23/Sr., 6′ 7″ 210lbs.: 3 + 14 + 10.6 + 7.1 = 34.7.
81. Marshawn Powell PF, Arkansas, Jr., 6′ 7″ 240lbs.: 0 + 25 + 0.0 + 9.6 = 34.6.
82. Augusto Cesar Lima PF, Malaga, 21/Intl., 6′ 10″ 234lbs.: 13 + 9 + 8.0 + 4.0 = 34.0.
83. Will Cherry PG, Montana, Sr., 6′ 1″ 181lbs.: 5 + 26 + 0.0 + 2.8 = 33.8.
84. Alex Oriakhi PF, Missouri, 23/Sr., 6′ 9″ 238lbs.: 6 + 16 + 0.0 + 11.2 = 33.2.
85. Janis Timma SF, Ventspils, 20/Intl., 6′ 7″ 226lbs.: 17 + 10 + 0.0 + 6.0 = 33.0.
86. Jamelle Hagins PF, Delaware, 22/Sr., 6′ 9″ 230lbs.: 4 + 20 + 0.0 + 7.9 = 31.9.
87. Zeke Marshall C, Akron, 22/Sr., 7′ 0″ 235lbs.: 5 + 13 + 0.0 + 13.3 = 31.3.
88. Rodney McGruder SG, Kansas State, Sr., 6′ 4″ 205lbs.: 5 + 17 + 0.0 + 9.2 = 31.2.
89. Rodney Williams SF, Minnesota, 21/Sr., 6′ 6″ 204lbs.: 16 + 5 + 0.0 + 8.0 = 29.0.
90. Amath M’Baye PF, Oklahoma, 23/Jr., 6′ 9″ 215lbs.: 13 + 11 + 0.0 + 4.5 = 28.5.
A few final players who just missed the cut are, in alphabetical order, Matthew Dellavedova PG, Saint Mary’s; Oleksandr Lypovyy SF, Donetsk (International); Romero Osby PF, Oklahoma; Durand Scott, Miami; Christian Watford PF, Indiana; and Khalif Wyatt SG, Temple.
COMMENTS
Please let us know if you're having issues with commenting.