Dodgers 1st with 4 of Top 20 Value Add Pitchers

A replacement-level pitcher going eight innings in Dodger Stadium with just two runs of support has only an 18% chance of winning a game, but Ricky Nolasco won 2-0 under those circumstances Thursday. Value Add gives the team 0.18 for the win, while Nolasco is credited with 0.82 of the win to move up to 19th in Value Add (see pitchers ranked 1st through 210th below). 

The www.valueaddbaseball.com database will be updated this weekend to include game-by-game accounts of 3,652 starts (any by a pitcher with at least five starts), 21,916 innings pitched with 9,485 earned runs allowed for a 3.90 ERA. The database also includes game-by-game breakdowns of the 15,321 runs scored to support these starters, as well as then 805 unearned runs allowed behind them, and 4,843 allowed by their bullpen, which totals 9,673 Net Runs of support for an average 3.88 ERA Needed to win. However, because any ERA Needed below 0.00 is recorded as a 0.00 for a given game, the actual average ERA Needed to win a given game is 4.65. 

The new rankings below are through Thursday’s games, so do not include Nolasco’s Friday night start, but in a four-game playoff series the Dodgers would now have four Top 20 pitchers. Clayton Kershaw is 2nd, Hyun-Jin Ryu is 10th, Zack Greinke is 18th despite missing a part of the season with injuries, and Nolasco was 31st before Friday’s start shot him into the Top 20. The Dodgers are also the only team with nine total pitchers on the list, as they had some terrible pitching early in the year before acquiring Nolasco from Miami.

The only team with three Top 20 pitchers are the Reds (Matt Latos, Mike Leake and Bronson Arroyo) and the only other team with two Top 20 pitchers is Colorado (Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin) who go unnoticed as they pitch through the mile high air in Colorado.Here is the entire list through Thursday’s game.

Rnk	Row Labels	Team	Value Add
1	Patrick Corbin	ARI	15.1
2	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	12.7
3	Max Scherzer	DET	11.8
4	Matt Latos	CIN	11.8
5	Jordan Zimmermann	WSH	10.9
6	Derek Holland	TEX	10.6
7	Julio Teheran	ATL	10.4
8	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	10.2
9	Adam Wainwright	STL	10.1
10	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	10.1
11	Jorge De La Rosa	COL	9.9
12	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	9.9
13	James Shields	KC	9.8
14	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	9.8
15	Cliff Lee	PHI	9.8
16	Mike Leake	CIN	9.6
17	Chris Sale	CHW	9.6
18	Zack Greinke	LAD	9.1
19	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	9.0
20	Chris Tillman	BAL	8.9
21	Matt Harvey	NYM	8.9
22	Bartolo Colon	OAK	8.9
23	Yu Darvish	TEX	8.9
24	Mark Buehrle	TOR	8.8
25	Felix Hernandez	SEA	8.7
26	Justin Masterson	CLE	8.7
27	Mike Minor	ATL	8.6
28	Jose Fernandez	MIA	8.6
29	A.J. Griffin	OAK	8.4
30	Madison Bumgarner	SF	8.3
31	Ricky Nolasco	LAD	8.2
32	Francisco Liriano	PIT	8.1
33	Shelby Miller	STL	8.0
34	Kyle Lohse	MIL	7.9
35	C.J. Wilson	LAA	7.8
36	Jeremy Guthrie	KC	7.6
37	Doug Fister	DET	7.5
38	CC Sabathia	NYY	7.4
39	Jarrod Parker	OAK	7.3
40	Clay Buchholz	BOS	7.3
41	Jon Lester	BOS	7.3
42	Matt Garza	TEX	7.3
43	Matt Moore	TB	7.2
44	Homer Bailey	CIN	7.1
45	Kris Medlen	ATL	7.1
46	Anibal Sanchez	DET	7.0
47	Felix Doubront	BOS	7.0
48	Ervin Santana	KC	6.9
49	Miguel Gonzalez	BAL	6.9
50	Jeff Samardzija	CHC	6.9
51	Lance Lynn	STL	6.8
52	R.A. Dickey	TOR	6.8
53	David Price	TB	6.8
54	Bud Norris	BAL	6.8
55	Kyle Kendrick	PHI	6.7
56	Jeff Locke	PIT	6.7
57	Jered Weaver	LAA	6.7
58	Dillon Gee	NYM	6.6
59	Justin Verlander	DET	6.4
60	Ryan Dempster	BOS	6.2
61	Eric Stults	SD	6.1
62	Travis Wood	CHC	6.0
63	Jonathan Pettibone	PHI	6.0
64	A.J. Burnett	PIT	5.9
65	John Lackey	BOS	5.9
66	Gio Gonzalez	WSH	5.8
67	Jose Quintana	CHW	5.8
68	Samuel Deduno	MIN	5.6
69	Scott Feldman	CHC	5.6
70	Zach McAllister	CLE	5.4
71	Tim Hudson	ATL	5.4
72	Ivan Nova	NYY	5.4
73	Kevin Correia	MIN	5.3
74	Rick Porcello	DET	5.3
75	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	5.3
76	Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	5.3
77	Randall Delgado	ARI	5.3
78	Matt Cain	SF	5.3
79	Wily Peralta	MIL	5.2
80	Cole Hamels	PHI	4.9
81	Corey Kluber	CLE	4.8
82	Jason Marquis	SD	4.8
83	Andrew Cashner	SD	4.7
84	Jake Westbrook	STL	4.7
85	Wade Miley	ARI	4.6
86	Martin Perez	TEX	4.6
87	Jake Peavy	BOS	4.6
88	Marco Estrada	MIL	4.4
89	David Phelps	NYY	4.3
90	Alex Cobb	TB	4.3
91	Edinson Volquez	SD	4.3
92	Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	4.2
93	Dylan Axelrod	CHW	4.1
94	Hector Santiago	CHW	4.1
95	Tommy Milone	OAK	4.1
96	Tyler Chatwood	COL	4.0
97	Jacob Turner	MIA	3.9
98	Joe Kelly	STL	3.9
99	Stephen Strasburg	WSH	3.9
100	Chris Archer	TB	3.7
101	Edwin Jackson	CHC	3.7
102	Ian Kennedy	SD	3.6
103	Charlie Morton	PIT	3.6
104	Tim Lincecum	SF	3.6
105	Tony Cingrani	CIN	3.6
106	Joe Saunders	SEA	3.5
107	Andy Pettitte	NYY	3.5
108	Alexi Ogando	TEX	3.3
109	Paul Maholm	ATL	3.3
110	Jason Vargas	LAA	3.3
111	Mike Pelfrey	MIN	3.2
112	Dallas Keuchel	HOU	3.2
113	Bruce Chen	KC	3.2
114	Juan Nicasio	COL	3.2
115	Zack Wheeler	NYM	3.1
116	Jarred Cosart	HOU	3.1
117	Jaime Garcia	STL	3.0
118	Dan Straily	OAK	2.9
119	Jordan Lyles	HOU	2.9
120	Wandy Rodriguez	PIT	2.9
121	Dan Haren	WSH	2.8
122	Scott Kazmir	CLE	2.6
123	Jason Hammel	BAL	2.6
124	Jon Garland	COL	2.6
125	Gerrit Cole	PIT	2.5
126	Nate Eovaldi	MIA	2.5
127	Henderson Alvarez	MIA	2.5
128	John Danks	CHW	2.4
129	Jonathon Niese	NYM	2.4
130	Tom Koehler	MIA	2.4
131	Kevin Slowey	MIA	2.4
132	Yovani Gallardo	MIL	2.3
133	Ross Detwiler	WSH	2.3
134	Erasmo Ramirez	SEA	2.3
135	Chad Gaudin	SF	2.2
136	Jeremy Hefner	NYM	2.1
137	Garrett Richards	LAA	2.1
138	Trevor Cahill	ARI	2.1
139	Wade Davis	KC	2.0
140	John Lannan	PHI	2.0
141	Stephen Fife	LAD	2.0
142	Chris Capuano	LAD	1.8
143	Chris Rusin	CHC	1.8
144	Alfredo Aceves	BOS	1.6
145	Roberto Hernandez	TB	1.6
146	Tyson Ross	SD	1.6
147	Esmil Rogers	TOR	1.5
148	Alex Wood	ATL	1.5
149	Brandon Morrow	TOR	1.5
150	Freddy Garcia	BAL	1.5
151	Taylor Jordan	WSH	1.4
152	Andre Rienzo	CHW	1.4
153	Phil Hughes	NYY	1.3
154	Justin Grimm	TEX	1.2
155	Jeremy Bonderman	DET	1.2
156	Carlos Villanueva	CHC	1.1
157	James McDonald	PIT	1.1
158	Lucas Harrell	HOU	1.0
159	Brandon Beachy	ATL	1.0
160	Brandon McCarthy	ARI	1.0
161	Alex Sanabia	MIA	0.9
162	Jerome Williams	LAA	0.9
163	Jose Alvarez	DET	0.9
164	Zach Britton	BAL	0.9
165	Aaron Harang	SEA	0.9
166	Johnny Cueto	CIN	0.8
167	Josh Lindblom	TEX	0.8
168	Jake Arrieta	BAL	0.8
169	Chien-Ming Wang	TOR	0.7
170	Jeanmar Gomez	PIT	0.7
171	Tyler Skaggs	ARI	0.6
172	PJ Walters	MIN	0.6
173	Jenrry Mejia	NYM	0.6
174	Barry Zito	SF	0.6
175	Tyler Lyons	STL	0.6
176	Brett Anderson	OAK	0.5
177	Tommy Hanson	LAA	0.5
178	Chad Bettis	COL	0.5
179	Kevin Gausman	BAL	0.5
180	Tyler Cloyd	PHI	0.4
181	Pedro Hernandez	MIN	0.4
182	Todd Redmond	TOR	0.3
183	Nick Tepesch	TEX	0.1
184	Luis Mendoza	KC	0.0
185	Brandon Maurer	SEA	0.0
186	Shaun Marcum	NYM	-0.1
187	Vance Worley	MIN	-0.2
188	J.A. Happ	TOR	-0.3
189	Hiram Burgos	MIL	-0.4
190	Kyle Gibson	MIN	-0.4
191	Alfredo Figaro	MIL	-0.5
192	Scott Diamond	MIN	-0.5
193	Erik Bedard	HOU	-0.6
194	Josh Johnson	TOR	-0.6
195	Ted Lilly	LAD	-0.6
196	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	-0.7
197	Josh Beckett	LAD	-0.8
198	Roy Halladay	PHI	-0.9
199	Gavin Floyd	CHW	-0.9
200	Allen Webster	BOS	-1.1
201	Donovan Hand	MIL	-1.2
202	Tom Gorzelanny	MIL	-1.2
203	Matt Magill	LAD	-1.3
204	Wade LeBlanc	MIA	-1.3
205	Philip Humber	HOU	-1.3
206	Brad Peacock	HOU	-1.5
207	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	-1.5
208	Jeff Francis	COL	-1.7
209	Joe Blanton	LAA	-1.9
210	Clayton Richard	SD	-2.2

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