If the National League playoffs started today, the Reds would have a big edge in the one-game playoff with Mat Latos (4th best Value Add at 12.36) favored over the Cardinals Adam Wainwright (16th/9.96). In fact, Latos just beat Wainwright 7-2 in a possible preview. A Braves-Reds series would look very even based on the team’s ratings at www.valueaddbaskeball.com, but a Dodgers-Pirates series would not.
The Braves (41.83 team Value Add for 3rd) would have a slight edge over the Reds (41.26/5th) rotation, particularly if Latos had to be used in a one-game wildcard. The Braves Julio Teheran has shot all the way up to 6th in Value Add.
With four of the Top 20 pitchers after Ricky Nolasco’s gem in Colorado Tuesday, the Dodgers (48.15/1st) would have a huge edge over the Pirates (32.67/10th). The Pirates top pitcher is 36th-ranked Francisco Liriano (7.95), though he would have rated higher except for missing time earlier in the season with an injury. Nolasco is shown as the 21st most valuable pitcher, but the results are through Labor Day and do not include his six-inning, two-run win in Coors Field, which actually moves him into the Top 20.
That would play out to a class Braves-Dodgers NL Championship, with the Dodgers having the edge due to the best rotation in baseball but the Braves surging and not far behind.
Of course, baseball also has hitting, fielding, relief pitching and the most luck of any of the major US sports, so the Dodgers are below 50-50 to make the Series even though they look to have best rotation in the league.
See the separate post for the ratings of all 218 MLB Starting pitchers.
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