Exclusive Value Add Ratings for All 227 Pitchers in Final Week of Season

Exclusive Value Add Ratings for All 227 Pitchers in Final Week of Season

The 4500th pitching start was entered in the database Sunday, as 227 pitchers have now made the five starters necessary needed to make the list. With the final playoff spots up for grabs in the seasons final week, the following is an alphabetical list of all pitchers so that readers can compare match-ups. There is also one adjustment to the system for Innings Pitched in a game in which the pitcher is given no chance to win.

The 4,500 games entered into the database through Sunday (and found at www.valueaddbaseball.com shortly) break into three categories that are explained in links off the sites.

1. In 661 of the games (15%) the starting pitcher did not give himself a chance to earn a victory because he did not last five innings, so he gets a negative rating of at least -0.6 for the game.

2. In 2,947 of the games (65%+) the team gave the pitcher some chance to win the game – at least a 1.00 ERA Needed to win and in some cases much higher – though the highest total we list is a 36.00 ERA Needed to win. In those cases, as explained on links from the site, the pitcher is credited based on how likely it is that a replacement pitcher would have been able to win the game. Items 1 and 2 equal the “Value Raw” on the database which tells you how many wins a pitcher has truly been worth to his team.

3. The one change in the formula impacts only the adjustment to the Raw Value for the 892 (20%) games in which the pitcher went at least five innings but was given no chance to win (a 0.00 or worse ERA Needed to win, such as when Chris Sale was given six runs of support but had his bullpen given up six in the ninth inning this weekend to cost him the victory). One fair criticism of the formula as originally presented was that it did not measure the impact of a pitcher getting in more innings to save his bullpen even when the team did not give him a chance to win. In the original formula, every pitcher who was given no chance to win but went at least five innings was given an adjustment of 0.2. After running the numbers on the 892 starts in question, it was determined that the average starter who gets a 0.00 ERA Needed to win pitches 6.18 innings. Instead of being given a blanked 0.2 for these games, the pitcher is now given an adjustment equal to his innings pitched MINUS five MULTIPLIED BY 0.2. These numbers still match up so that on balance pitchers will average the same value in games in which they are given no chance to win as when they are given a chance to win.

The following is the alphabetical list of the rankings for all 227 players for whom we have at least five starts entered into our database.

 

Rank Pitcher Team Value Add
158 Alfredo Aceves BOS 1.61
182 Andrew Albers MIN 0.48
137 Henderson Alvarez MIA 2.59
171 Jose Alvarez DET 0.81
174 Brett Anderson OAK 0.75
95 Chris Archer TB 5.12
144 Jake Arrieta CHC 2.23
44 Bronson Arroyo CIN 8.89
145 Dylan Axelrod CHW 2.16
31 Homer Bailey CIN 9.99
169 Brandon Beachy ATL 0.98
205 Josh Beckett LAD -0.58
219 Erik Bedard HOU -1.27
213 Chad Bettis COL -1.08
218 Joe Blanton LAA -1.26
162 Jeremy Bonderman SEA 1.24
190 Zach Britton BAL 0.06
46 Clay Buchholz BOS 8.78
19 Mark Buehrle TOR 10.89
15 Madison Bumgarner SF 11.39
197 Hiram Burgos MIL -0.40
57 A.J. Burnett PIT 7.79
98 Trevor Cahill ARI 4.80
67 Matt Cain SF 7.04
149 Chris Capuano LAD 1.90
222 Carlos Carrasco CLE -1.47
60 Andrew Cashner SD 7.53
12 Jhoulys Chacin COL 12.25
124 Tyler Chatwood COL 3.20
97 Bruce Chen KC 4.85
107 Wei-Yin Chen BAL 4.04
112 Tony Cingrani CIN 3.75
211 Tyler Cloyd PHI -0.95
91 Alex Cobb TB 5.31
81 Gerrit Cole PIT 5.78
21 Bartolo Colon OAK 10.88
2 Patrick Corbin ARI 15.18
71 Kevin Correia MIN 6.67
118 Jarred Cosart HOU 3.45
154 Johnny Cueto CIN 1.67
134 John Danks CHW 2.73
30 Yu Darvish TEX 10.05
148 Wade Davis KC 1.93
23 Jorge De La Rosa COL 10.77
88 Samuel Deduno MIN 5.39
72 Randall Delgado ARI 6.54
56 Ryan Dempster BOS 7.94
143 Ross Detwiler WSH 2.24
202 Scott Diamond MIN -0.45
35 R.A. Dickey TOR 9.72
78 Felix Doubront BOS 5.97
199 Danny Duffy KC -0.41
122 Nate Eovaldi MIA 3.24
155 Robbie Erlin SD 1.65
80 Marco Estrada MIL 5.84
65 Scott Feldman BAL 7.16
27 Jose Fernandez MIA 10.32
166 Stephen Fife LAD 1.06
203 Alfredo Figaro MIL -0.53
18 Doug Fister DET 10.91
210 Gavin Floyd CHW -0.94
225 Jeff Francis COL -1.83
94 Yovani Gallardo MIL 5.15
119 Jaime Garcia STL 3.32
141 Freddy Garcia ATL 2.30
146 Jon Garland COL 2.07
66 Matt Garza TEX 7.08
142 Chad Gaudin SF 2.26
186 Kevin Gausman BAL 0.26
41 Dillon Gee NYM 9.30
200 Kyle Gibson MIN -0.41
177 Jeanmar Gomez PIT 0.60
58 Miguel Gonzalez BAL 7.75
61 Gio Gonzalez WSH 7.43
216 Tom Gorzelanny MIL -1.18
138 Sonny Gray OAK 2.56
13 Zack Greinke LAD 11.41
20 A.J. Griffin OAK 10.88
159 Justin Grimm TEX 1.56
33 Jeremy Guthrie KC 9.80
185 Roy Halladay PHI 0.38
40 Cole Hamels PHI 9.31
132 Jason Hammel BAL 2.80
217 Donovan Hand MIL -1.23
187 Tommy Hanson LAA 0.21
214 J.A. Happ TOR -1.10
172 Aaron Harang NYM 0.78
131 Dan Haren WSH 2.90
160 Lucas Harrell HOU 1.54
36 Matt Harvey NYM 9.69
140 Jeremy Hefner NYM 2.41
89 Jeremy Hellickson TB 5.38
221 Johnny Hellweg MIL -1.39
175 Liam Hendriks MIN 0.72
39 Felix Hernandez SEA 9.31
151 Roberto Hernandez TB 1.80
191 Pedro Hernandez MIN 0.03
22 Derek Holland TEX 10.81
87 Tim Hudson ATL 5.41
196 Phil Hughes NYY -0.38
215 Philip Humber HOU -1.16
10 Hisashi Iwakuma SEA 12.33
126 Edwin Jackson CHC 3.04
52 Ubaldo Jimenez CLE 8.52
198 Josh Johnson TOR -0.41
156 Taylor Jordan WSH 1.64
116 Scott Kazmir CLE 3.51
76 Joe Kelly STL 6.11
64 Kyle Kendrick PHI 7.25
108 Ian Kennedy ARI 3.99
1 Clayton Kershaw LAD 15.42
104 Dallas Keuchel HOU 4.26
92 Corey Kluber CLE 5.26
152 Tom Koehler MIA 1.77
14 Hiroki Kuroda NYY 11.40
34 John Lackey BOS 9.75
153 John Lannan PHI 1.70
4 Mat Latos CIN 13.76
25 Mike Leake CIN 10.40
223 Wade LeBlanc MIA -1.70
7 Cliff Lee PHI 12.77
28 Jon Lester BOS 10.10
207 Ted Lilly LAD -0.82
74 Tim Lincecum SF 6.41
173 Josh Lindblom TEX 0.78
45 Francisco Liriano PIT 8.84
70 Jeff Locke PIT 6.69
42 Kyle Lohse MIL 9.07
123 Jordan Lyles HOU 3.21
62 Lance Lynn STL 7.40
167 Tyler Lyons STL 1.05
220 Matt Magill LAD -1.36
90 Paul Maholm ATL 5.38
181 Shaun Marcum NYM 0.50
100 Jason Marquis SD 4.56
224 Ethan Martin PHI -1.72
55 Justin Masterson CLE 7.97
170 Daisuke Matsuzaka NYM 0.95
206 Brandon Maurer SEA -0.65
86 Zach McAllister CLE 5.50
117 Brandon McCarthy ARI 3.49
163 James McDonald PIT 1.21
32 Kris Medlen ATL 9.87
179 Jenrry Mejia NYM 0.57
193 Luis Mendoza KC -0.21
109 Wade Miley ARI 3.91
29 Shelby Miller STL 10.05
84 Tommy Milone OAK 5.57
37 Mike Minor ATL 9.68
69 Matt Moore TB 6.81
164 Brandon Morrow TOR 1.14
93 Charlie Morton PIT 5.20
135 Juan Nicasio COL 2.68
110 Jonathon Niese NYM 3.88
17 Ricky Nolasco LAD 10.92
73 Bud Norris BAL 6.48
68 Ivan Nova NYY 6.99
113 Brett Oberholtzer HOU 3.62
121 Alexi Ogando TEX 3.24
114 Ross Ohlendorf WSH 3.59
226 Roy Oswalt COL -1.94
38 Jarrod Parker OAK 9.51
204 Brad Peacock HOU -0.56
79 Jake Peavy BOS 5.90
147 Mike Pelfrey MIN 2.00
82 Wily Peralta MIL 5.73
77 Martin Perez TEX 6.06
111 Yusmeiro Petit SF 3.84
96 Jonathan Pettibone PHI 5.09
85 Andy Pettitte NYY 5.56
102 David Phelps NYY 4.44
51 Rick Porcello DET 8.59
48 David Price TB 8.65
63 Jose Quintana CHW 7.39
129 Erasmo Ramirez SEA 2.98
161 Todd Redmond TOR 1.41
227 Clayton Richard SD -2.25
105 Garrett Richards LAA 4.21
168 Andre Rienzo CHW 1.03
127 Wandy Rodriguez PIT 3.00
125 Esmil Rogers TOR 3.09
130 Tyson Ross SD 2.96
150 Chris Rusin CHC 1.85
26 Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD 10.34
59 CC Sabathia NYY 7.69
195 Danny Salazar CLE -0.37
3 Chris Sale CHW 13.89
54 Jeff Samardzija CHC 8.00
183 Alex Sanabia MIA 0.47
43 Anibal Sanchez DET 9.02
47 Ervin Santana KC 8.68
103 Hector Santiago CHW 4.30
133 Joe Saunders SEA 2.77
5 Max Scherzer DET 13.69
11 James Shields KC 12.31
180 Tyler Skaggs ARI 0.55
157 Kevin Slowey MIA 1.62
194 Burch Smith SD -0.27
83 Dan Straily OAK 5.72
106 Stephen Strasburg WSH 4.19
75 Eric Stults SD 6.24
9 Julio Teheran ATL 12.38
201 Nick Tepesch TEX -0.44
136 Tyler Thornburg MIL 2.61
24 Chris Tillman BAL 10.46
178 Carlos Torres NYM 0.59
139 Jacob Turner MIA 2.56
115 Jason Vargas LAA 3.58
49 Justin Verlander DET 8.62
165 Carlos Villanueva CHC 1.09
208 Ryan Vogelsong SF -0.84
128 Edinson Volquez LAD 2.98
188 Michael Wacha STL 0.15
8 Adam Wainwright STL 12.59
176 P.J. Walters MIN 0.61
189 Chien-Ming Wang TOR 0.11
53 Jered Weaver LAA 8.36
212 Allen Webster BOS -1.07
99 Jake Westbrook STL 4.70
120 Zack Wheeler NYM 3.32
101 Jerome Williams LAA 4.44
16 C.J. Wilson LAA 11.19
50 Travis Wood CHC 8.62
184 Alex Wood ATL 0.38
192 Vance Worley MIN -0.20
6 Jordan Zimmerman WSH 13.46
209 Barry Zito SF -0.88

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