The Dodgers are being given a huge edge by many in Game 1 due to having the best pitcher on the mound in Clayton Kershaw, but in pitchers’ duels this year the Braves starter Kris Medlin has been much better. Given just one, two, or three runs of support, Medlin is 8-8, the sixth best mark in baseball, and Kershaw is 5-10, barely better than the league average 27% (see separate post for breakdown). It is actually the Dodgers Game 2 starter Zack Greinke who has the most wins (10-8) in such games, and the Braves Game 3 starter Julio Teheran (8-5) who has the best winning percentage in baseball in these games.
The only three other pitchers with a winning record are Patrick Corbin (AZ) 6-5, Max Scherzer (DET) 6-5, and Miguel Gonzalez (BAL) 6-5. Many of the credits of www.valueaddbaseball.com centered their attacks on Corbin being rated at the top of the ratings until he ran out of gas after August 20, but these wins are are what add the most value to a team. A pitcher usually gets the win if a team scores at least four runs, so any of those games are wins you expect. A pitcher obviously cannot win if the team is shut out.
That leaves the games in which a team scores 1-3 runs that the pitcher is not expected to win, but if he can pull it out gets a win the team should not have had. Some questioned Max Scherzer being a shoo-in Cy Young Award winner because he received so much support overall from the Tigers, but the fact that when the Tigers produced just 1-3 runs he was one of only five pitchers who won over half his starts shows his value was very high.
The following are the list of the 36 pitchers who won at least five games in which their team scored three or fewer runs, ranked in order of winning percentage. In the Value Add system, a pitcher gets a “Victory” if he goes five innings and his team wins, even if he was not still in the game. The overall winning percentage is at 47% because of games in which a pitcher’s team won but he failed to go five innings.
|Rank||With 1-3 Runs of Support||Team||Wins||Losses||Win%|
|15||Jorge De La Rosa||COL||5||6||45%|