The Eastern Regional bracket’s top half–the slate of games that appear higher as you look at the seedings–matches up Virginia-Coastal Carolina, Michigan State-Delaware, Cincinnati-Harvard, and George Washington-Memphis. Unlike in the other portion of games in the East, prognosticators might be better off making the safe picks here.
The most likely upset appears to be the Ivy League champions surprising Cincinnati. Twelfth-seeded Harvard has improved from 47 to 33 (www.kenpom.com) in the final month of the season while Cincinnati has stayed stagnant at 24. Harvard has been the better team by a slight edge, and they look good to surprise unless Sean Kilpatrick (5th best player in Value Add) can come come up huge.
Home Advantage: George Washington could have the edge in Raleigh to pull the upset in the opening round against Memphis in a battle of two cold teams.
The following are the Value Add Rankings for each player in the top half of the East Region, their team’s seed, height, year in school, and which players are NBA prospects (all caps). The teams are Cincinnati (5-seed), Coastal Carolina (16), Delaware (13), George Washington (9), Harvard (12), Memphis (8), Michigan St. (4) and Virginia (1).
The items listed for the top few players on each team should be the biggest considerations along with injured players, the home advantage, and which team enters the tournament hot (which we define as improving the most at www.kenpom.com over the past month of the season). The system is a precise measurement of how many points a player adds to his team’s score per game over the player who takes his place. Every score (three-pointer, two-pointer or foul shot), assist, offensive rebound, foul drawn, etc. helps a team score while every turnover and missed shot costs the team points. On defense, every steal, blocked shot, defensive rebound, turnover forced, and opponent’s missed shot takes points off the board while every basket or offensive rebound allowed adds to the opponent’s score. The player’s offensive and defensive combination calculates together with the help of the stats at www.kenpom.com. How many points a player adds to his team’s score appears in the offensive category (shown as “off” in the table below), and his overall impact on points once defense is factored appears as “Total” in the table.
Top East Bracket Players (teams in order they appear on bracket:
| Rnk | Player | Seed | Team | Ht | Yr | NBA/g | Off | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 994 | Badou Diagne | 16 | Coastal Carolina | 6′ 7″ | So | 0.43 | 0.76 | |
| 1030 | Warren Gillis | 16 | Coastal Carolina | 6′ 3″ | Jr | g | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| 1287 | Elijah Wilson | 16 | Coastal Carolina | 6′ 4″ | Fr | 0.96 | 0.48 | |
| 1955 | Colton Ray-St Cyr | 16 | Coastal Carolina | 6′ 5″ | Fr | 0.00 | 0.13 | |
| 2080 | Michel Enanga | 16 | Coastal Carolina | 6′ 5″ | So | 0.00 | 0.08 | |
| 2305 | Tristian Curtis | 16 | Coastal Carolina | 6′ 7″ | So | 0.00 | 0.01 | |
| El Hadji Ndieguene | 16 | Coastal Carolina | 6′ 10″ | Sr | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Eric Smith | 16 | Coastal Carolina | 6′ 0 | Sr | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Josh Cameron | 16 | Coastal Carolina | 6′ 1″ | Jr | g | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Uros Ljeskovic | 16 | Coastal Carolina | 6′ 8″ | So | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 55 | Malcolm Brogdon | 1 | Virginia | 6′ 5″ | So | 3.41 | 4.84 | |
| 213 | Joe Harris | 1 | Virginia | 6′ 6″ | Sr | 2.88 | 3.10 | |
| 239 | London Perrantes | 1 | Virginia | 6′ 2″ | Fr | g | 1.95 | 2.90 |
| 312 | Akil Mitchell | 1 | Virginia | 6′ 8″ | Sr | 0.84 | 2.45 | |
| 358 | Anthony Gill | 1 | Virginia | 6′ 8″ | So | 2.01 | 2.19 | |
| 611 | Mike Tobey | 1 | Virginia | 6′ 11″ | So | C | 0.62 | 1.42 |
| 678 | Justin Anderson | 1 | Virginia | 6′ 6″ | So | 0.94 | 1.30 | |
| 1500 | Darion Atkins | 1 | Virginia | 6′ 8″ | Jr | 0.04 | 0.34 | |
| 1807 | Evan Nolte | 1 | Virginia | 6′ 8″ | So | 0.29 | 0.20 | |
| 223 | Isaiah Armwood | 9 | George Washington | 6′ 9″ | Sr | 1.72 | 3.01 | |
| 283 | Patricio Garino | 9 | George Washington | 6′ 6″ | So | 1.93 | 2.61 | |
| 284 | Kevin Larsen | 9 | George Washington | 6′ 10″ | So | 2.95 | 2.61 | |
| 288 | Kethan Savage | 9 | George Washington | 6′ 3″ | So | 1.30 | 2.59 | |
| 292 | Joe McDonald | 9 | George Washington | 6′ 1″ | So | g | 1.48 | 2.57 |
| 403 | Maurice Creek | 9 | George Washington | 6′ 5″ | Sr | 2.11 | 2.04 | |
| 1872 | Nick Griffin | 9 | George Washington | 6′ 3″ | Fr | 0.33 | 0.17 | |
| 1880 | Nemanja Mikic | 9 | George Washington | 6′ 8″ | Sr | 0.32 | 0.16 | |
| 2175 | Miguel Cartagena | 9 | George Washington | 6′ 2″ | Fr | 0.00 | 0.05 | |
| 2298 | John Kopriva | 9 | George Washington | 6′ 8″ | Jr | 0.00 | 0.01 | |
| 104 | Joe Jackson | 8 | Memphis | 6′ 1″ | Sr | PG | 3.33 | 4.02 |
| 161 | Shaq Goodwin | 8 | Memphis | 6′ 9″ | So | PF | 1.89 | 3.46 |
| 208 | Michael Dixon | 8 | Memphis | 6′ 1″ | Sr | 2.70 | 3.11 | |
| 413 | Chris Crawford | 8 | Memphis | 6′ 4″ | Sr | 1.08 | 2.00 | |
| 597 | Austin Nichols | 8 | Memphis | 6′ 8″ | Fr | 1.45 | 1.45 | |
| 885 | Nick King | 8 | Memphis | 6′ 7″ | Fr | 0.60 | 0.93 | |
| 940 | David Pellom | 8 | Memphis | 6′ 7″ | Sr | 1.06 | 0.85 | |
| 1568 | Geron Johnson | 8 | Memphis | 6′ 3″ | Sr | 0.00 | 0.31 | |
| Kuran Iverson | 8 | Memphis | 6′ 10″ | Fr | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 5 | Sean Kilpatrick | 5 | Cincinnati | 6′ 4″ | Sr | g | 5.87 | 7.52 |
| 44 | Justin Jackson | 5 | Cincinnati | 6′ 8″ | Sr | 1.41 | 5.05 | |
| 216 | Titus Rubles | 5 | Cincinnati | 6′ 7″ | Sr | 1.10 | 3.07 | |
| 468 | Jermaine Sanders | 5 | Cincinnati | 6′ 5″ | Jr | 2.00 | 1.82 | |
| 486 | Troy Caupain | 5 | Cincinnati | 6′ 3″ | Fr | 0.77 | 1.75 | |
| 796 | Kevin Johnson | 5 | Cincinnati | 6′ 2″ | Fr | 0.68 | 1.09 | |
| 1024 | Shaquille Thomas | 5 | Cincinnati | 6′ 7″ | So | 0.56 | 0.74 | |
| 1580 | David Nyarsuk | 5 | Cincinnati | 7′ 1″ | Sr | 0.18 | 0.30 | |
| 1865 | Jermaine Lawrence | 5 | Cincinnati | 6′ 9″ | Fr | 0.00 | 0.17 | |
| 1922 | Ge’Lawn Guyn | 5 | Cincinnati | 6′ 2″ | Jr | 0.00 | 0.15 | |
| 218 | Steve Moundou-Missi | 12 | Harvard | 6′ 7″ | Jr | 2.35 | 3.06 | |
| 224 | Wesley Saunders | 12 | Harvard | 6′ 5″ | Jr | g | 1.87 | 3.00 |
| 492 | Laurent Rivard | 12 | Harvard | 6′ 5″ | Sr | 3.10 | 1.74 | |
| 496 | Kyle Casey | 12 | Harvard | 6′ 7″ | Sr | 0.67 | 1.72 | |
| 562 | Jonah Travis | 12 | Harvard | 6′ 6″ | Jr | 1.38 | 1.52 | |
| 722 | Brandyn Curry | 12 | Harvard | 6′ 1″ | Sr | 0.88 | 1.23 | |
| 1002 | Siyani Chambers | 12 | Harvard | 6′ 0 | So | g | 1.44 | 0.76 |
| 1397 | Evan Cummins | 12 | Harvard | 6′ 9″ | So | 0.19 | 0.40 | |
| Agunwa Okolie | 12 | Harvard | 6′ 8″ | So | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 181 | Davon Usher | 13 | Delaware | 6′ 6″ | Sr | 3.41 | 3.23 | |
| 267 | Jarvis Threatt | 13 | Delaware | 6′ 2″ | Jr | g | 1.38 | 2.74 |
| 451 | Carl Baptiste | 13 | Delaware | 6′ 9″ | Sr | 1.91 | 1.88 | |
| 847 | Kyle Anderson | 13 | Delaware | 6′ 2″ | Jr | 2.01 | 1.00 | |
| 875 | Devon Saddler | 13 | Delaware | 6′ 2″ | Sr | 1.89 | 0.94 | |
| 1545 | Marvin King-Davis | 13 | Delaware | 6′ 7″ | So | 0.63 | 0.32 | |
| 2252 | Cazmon Hayes | 13 | Delaware | 6′ 4″ | Fr | 0.05 | 0.02 | |
| Devonne Pinkard | 13 | Delaware | 6′ 6″ | Fr | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 45 | Gary Harris | 4 | Michigan St. | 6′ 4″ | So | SG | 3.80 | 5.04 |
| 158 | Branden Dawson | 4 | Michigan St. | 6′ 6″ | Jr | SF | 2.25 | 3.51 |
| 226 | Adreian Payne | 4 | Michigan St. | 6′ 10″ | Sr | PF/C | 2.46 | 2.97 |
| 355 | Denzel Valentine | 4 | Michigan St. | 6′ 5″ | So | 1.80 | 2.22 | |
| 414 | Keith Appling | 4 | Michigan St. | 6′ 1″ | Sr | 2.71 | 2.00 | |
| 507 | Matt Costello | 4 | Michigan St. | 6′ 9″ | So | 1.64 | 1.68 | |
| 670 | Travis Trice | 4 | Michigan St. | 6′ 0 | Jr | 1.82 | 1.31 | |
| 800 | Kenny Kaminski | 4 | Michigan St. | 6′ 8″ | Fr | 1.64 | 1.08 | |
| 1748 | Alvin Ellis | 4 | Michigan St. | 6′ 4″ | Fr | 0.00 | 0.22 | |
| 2057 | Alex Gauna | 4 | Michigan St. | 6′ 9″ | Jr | 0.18 | 0.09 | |
| 2081 | Gavin Schilling | 4 | Michigan St. | 6′ 9″ | Fr | 0.16 | 0.08 | |
| 2315 | Russell Byrd | 4 | Michigan St. | 6′ 7″ | Jr | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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