Best Conference? Breakdown of Each Game This Weekend

Best Conference? Breakdown of Each Game This Weekend

On Friday, Conference USA was established as the best of the “other five” conferences. Saturday the pecking order of the big five will be determined by if Wisconsin can upset LSU and/or Clemson can upset Georgia to challenge the long-reign of the SEC, while the Big 12 would like to follow-up on Oklahoma’s thrashing of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl with an Oklahoma State upset of defending champ Florida State. 

Below are the rankings of the 10 FBS conferences through the weekday games based on the system explained here, with a table at the end showing all game times and winning margins to date in conference clashes.

  1. Big Ten +22 (1-0) – Michigan State’s impressive 45-7 win does not count, an upset by Wisconsin (of LSU) or Penn State (of Central Florida) would help.
  2. Conference USA +21 (2-0) – UTSA beat Houston and Western Kentucky upset Bowling Green – both by 20 points or more for a phenomenal 2-0 start.
  3. Pac-12 +9 (1-2) – Arizona’s impressive blowout of UNLV made up for a second narrow loss to put the Pac-12 in positive territory.
  4. Sun Belt +7 (1-0) – No games Friday, Troy should win against UAB while Georgia Southern would be a longshot to upset NC State.
  5. Big 12 No Rating (0-0) – The first weekend is all about the chance for Oklahoma State to upset Florida State – all four other games look like forgone conclusions.
  6. American -1 (1-2) – Both Houston (vs. UTSA) and UConn (vs. BYU) were crushed Friday to undo Thursday’s excitement from Temple’s update.
  7. SEC -6 (1-1) – Wins by Georgia (vs. Clemson) and LSU (vs. Wisconsin) are slight favorites a win by both would establish the SEC as dominant again, while a loss by both would be an indicator things are much more balanced in the first season of the 4-team playoff.
  8. ACC -7 (0-1) – If Florida State holds of Top 10 opponent Oklahoma State, the key would be a slight upset by Clemson over Georgia to show the conference is more than one team.
  9. Mountain West -19 (1-2) – Colorado State pulled a nice upset over in-state rival Colorado, but the conference still dropped with UNLV getting demolished by Arizona.
  10. Mid-American -47 (0-1) – Things look bleak as their one favorite – Bowling Green – was demolished and none of their three teams in action Saturday have even a 20% chance of winning.

The number to the left of each team either notes the scoring margin (e.g. Connecticut’s -25 means a 25-point loss to BYU) or the start time of their game. If a number appears in the far right, it indicates the conference rating for that team’s performance based on the system explained here.

Res AMERICAN ATHL chance Opponent Conf Diff ConfRnk Rate
-25 Connecticut 17% BYU Ind 5 5 -15
-20 Houston 74% UT San Antonio CUSA -8 -7 -35
Sun SMU 6% Baylor Big 12 22 0  
30 Temple 9% Vanderbilt SEC 13 4 48
8am UCF 56% Penn St Big 10 5 -12  
    1.62 almost 2-3        
  ACC            
3pm Boston College 94% Massachusetts MAC -23 5  
5pm Clemson 48% Georgia SEC 19 -11  
8pm Florida St 69% Oklahoma St Big 12 20 -23  
noon NC State 76% Ga Southern SB -18 13  
noon Virginia 6% UCLA Pac 12 18 13  
-7 Wake Forest 69% ULM SB -7 7 -7
    3.62 almost 4-2        
  BIG TEN            
noon Michigan 98% Appalachian St SB -24 -3  
3pm Nebraska 85% FL Atlantic CUSA -9 -3  
3pm Northwestern 77% California Pac 12 -9 1  
noon Ohio St 81% Navy Ind 2 -11  
8am Penn St 44% UCF Amer 7 0  
noon Purdue 84% W Michigan MAC -26 16  
3 Rutgers 19% Washington St Pac 12 8 11 22
9pm Wisconsin 41% LSU SEC 20 -10  
    5.29 at least 5-3        
  BIG 12            
Sun Baylor 94% SMU Amer -7 -8  
7pm Oklahoma 99% Louisiana Tech CUSA -20 -9  
8pm Oklahoma St 31% Florida St ACC 28 -10  
8pm Texas 86% North Texas CUSA -4 -2  
3pm West Virginia 7% Alabama SEC 25 9  
    3.17 at least 3-2        
  Conference USA            
3pm FL Atlantic 15% Nebraska Big 10 11 -6  
7pm Louisiana Tech 1% Oklahoma Big 12 22 5  
3pm Marshall 94% Miami OH MAC -26 -11  
8pm North Texas 14% Texas Big 12 15 -11  
3pm Rice 9% Notre Dame Ind 16 -8  
7pm Southern Miss 99% Mississippi St SEC 12 12  
noon UAB 66% Troy SB -13 8  
20 UT San Antonio 26% Houston Amer 5 -6 19
8pm UTEP 69% New Mexico MWC -13 9  
28 W Kentucky 33% Bowling Green MAC 0 -6 22
    4.26 at least 4-6       6
  MID-AMERICAN            
-28 Bowling Green 67% W Kentucky CUSA -3 -16 -47
3pm Massachusetts 6% Boston College ACC -2 13  
3pm Miami OH 6% Marshall CUSA -4 16  
noon W Michigan 16% Purdue Big 10 -8 11  
    0.95 almost 1-3        
  MOUNTAIN WEST            
-22 Boise St 30% Mississippi SEC 13 -11 -19
14 Colorado St 44% Colorado Pac 12 -1 -3 10
7pm Fresno St 14% USC Pac 12 19 -8  
10pm Hawaii 5% Washington Pac 12 15 6  
8pm New Mexico 69% UTEP CUSA -24 10  
-45 UNLV 6% Arizona Pac 12 17 1 -27
Sun Utah St 44% Tennessee SEC 9 -12  
    2.12 at least 2-5        
  PAC12            
45 Arizona 94% UNLV MWC -10 -1 34
3pm California 23% Northwestern Big 10 7 19  
-14 Colorado 56% Colorado St MWC -3 14 -3
noon UCLA 94% Virginia ACC -4 -7  
7pm USC 86% Fresno St MWC -1 -3  
10pm Washington 5% Hawaii MWC -9 -4  
-3 Washington St 19% Rutgers Big 10 -6 5 -4
    3.77 almost 4-3       3
  SEC            
3pm Alabama 93% West Virginia Big 12 1 -11  
7pm Florida 99% Idaho SB -29 5  
5pm Georgia 52% Clemson ACC 14 -2  
9pm LSU 59% Wisconsin Big 10 16 -6  
22 Mississippi 70% Boise St MWC 5 0 27
7pm Mississippi St 99% Southern Miss CUSA -27 4  
Sun Tennessee 56% Utah St MWC 3 7  
-30 Vanderbilt 91% Temple Amer -12 3 -39
    6.19 at least 6-2        
  SUN BELT            
noon Appalachian St 2% Michigan Big 10 11 6  
noon Ga Southern 24% NC State ACC -4 0  
7pm Idaho 1% Florida SEC 12 11  
noon Troy 66% UAB CUSA -17 -6  
7 ULM 31% Wake Forest ACC -4 -5 -2
    1.24 at least 1-4      


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