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Big Ten, Big 12 Struggle Without Star QBs

Big Ten, Big 12 Struggle Without Star QBs

Two of the biggest programs in the country, Ohio State and Texas, found playing without their starting quarterbacks very difficult, and the ACC took advantage to pass both of their conferences. Conference USA moved into 6th place and not far behind the Big Ten in the updated ranking of the 10 FBS conferences. 

On a day that the Big Ten was an average of 10 points worse per game than projected, Conference USA got a big upset from Louisiana Tech (over ULL) and had three other strong showings from UTEP (against Texas Tech), UAB (against Mississippi State), and Texas-San Antonio (against Arizona). The following are the new rankings followed by the highlights and low-lights for each conference:

Rnk Conf Last Week Week 2 Wins+ Week 2 Pts+ This Week
1 SEC 13 1.2 1 14
2 (tie) P12 11 -0.1 -5 9
2 (tie) ACC 6 2.0 2 9
4 B12 11 0.0 -10 6
5 B10 6 -1.3 -10 1
6 CUSA -8 -0.5 4 -4
7 AAC -4 -1.3 -1 -6
8 MWC -9 0.0 -2 -10
9 MAC -14 -2.2 2 -14
10 SBC -15 -0.5 -3 -16
  Ind 2 1.9 16 11

The table shows how many points the average team was better or worse than the average FBS team as of last week, by how many wins and points per game they exceeded expectations in Week 2, and then the new rating heading into Week 2. For example, it was thought the SEC was 13 points better than the average FBS team heading into Week 2, but they actually won 1.2 more games than expected in a perfect week and won by 1 point more than expected per game, so SEC schools ended the week rated 14 points better than the average FBS team.

10. Sun Belt. South Alabama won a 50-50 game against Kent for the only breakthrough, but ULL gave up the 99-yard TD run (see AP footage here on ESPN) that started the avalanche as they were stunned by Louisiana Tech in a blowout.

9. Mid-American. The conference had a bad day EXCEPT for their 2-2 record against the hapless Big Ten, as Central Michigan crushed Purdue, North Illinois beat Northwestern, and Ball State almost stunned Iowa.

8. Mountain West. Nevada upset Washington State.

7. American. Temple could not follow-up on the magic from their opening-week win over Vanderbilt, as they fell one touchdown short to a good Navy team.

6. Conference USA. As noted above, they played everyone tough to pass the American Athletic and close the gap to five points behind the Big Ten.

5. Big Ten. Illinois’ win over Western Kentucky was actually an upset on an otherwise disastrous day.

4. Big 12. They won seven games, as expected, but every win except West Virginia was closer than expected and Texas getting blown out by BYU may indicate the loss of the quarterback cannot be overcome.

2 (tie). ACC. As noted in the story about Virginia Tech’s upset of Ohio State, it was a perfect day for the ACC. 

2 (tie). Pac-12. Oregon’s big win over Michigan State may have covered up the near misses that dropped the Pac-12 well behind the SEC and into a tie with the ACC. Arizona, Colorado, Oregon State, UCLA and Washington all won by eight points or less against smaller conference teams. For the second straight week they got their wins (won 9 just as projected) but in a manner that suggests they may be down a little this year.

1. SEC. They were perfect like the ACC, but everyone almost expects it now from the SEC. They actually won by an average of one point more than projected to improve slightly to a +14 – 5 points better than any other conference. 

Rnk School Proj Pts Proj W Margin Wins? Conf opponent
63 Cincinnati 0 0% off off AAC  
104 Connecticut 9 76% 3 1 AAC Stony Brook
46 East Carolina -11 27% -10 0 AAC South Carolina
86 Houston 25 100% 25 1 AAC Grambling
103 Memphis -25 2% -7 0 AAC UCLA
84 SMU -9 27% -25 0 AAC North Texas
114 South Florida -17 13% -7 0 AAC Maryland
55 Temple 2 55% -7 0 AAC Navy
96 Tulane -10 26% -17 0 AAC Georgia Tech
80 Tulsa -25 10% -25 0 AAC Oklahoma
48 UCF 0 0% off off AAC  
  Conf Week 2Pts/Wins -61 3.3 -70 2 AAC  
Rnk School Proj Pts Proj W Margin Wins? Conf opponent
50 Boston College 1 52% -10 0 ACC Pittsburgh
29 Clemson 25 99% 25 1 ACC S Carolina St
41 Duke 20 85% 17 1 ACC Troy
1 Florida St 25 100% 25 1 ACC Citadel
45 Georgia Tech 10 74% 17 1 ACC Tulane
16 Louisville 25 99% 25 1 ACC Murray St
62 Miami FL 25 99% 25 1 ACC Florida A&M
98 NC State 3 56% 12 1 ACC Old Dominion
44 North Carolina 16 82% 4 1 ACC San Diego St
39 Pittsburgh -1 48% 10 1 ACC Boston College
64 Syracuse 0 0% off off ACC  
71 Virginia 20 89% 25 1 ACC Richmond
38 Virginia Tech -17 16% 7 1 ACC Ohio St
108 Wake Forest 25 98% 16 1 ACC Gardner Webb
  Conf Week 2Pts/Wins 177 10.0 198 12 ACC  
Rnk School Proj Pts Proj W Margin Wins? Conf opponent
81 Illinois -8 35% 8 1 B10 W Kentucky
52 Indiana 0 0% off off B10  
34 Iowa 16 84% 4 1 B10 Ball St
54 Maryland 17 87% 7 1 B10 South Florida
40 Michigan -11 25% -25 0 B10 Notre Dame
3 Michigan St -10 27% -19 0 B10 Oregon
36 Minnesota 21 92% 11 1 B10 Middle Tenn St
28 Nebraska 25 94% 7 1 B10 McNeese St
72 Northwestern 3 57% -8 0 B10 N Illinois
14 Ohio St 17 84% -7 0 B10 Virginia Tech
32 Penn St 25 97% 18 1 B10 Akron
107 Purdue 0 50% -21 0 B10 C Michigan
59 Rutgers 25 98% 13 1 B10 Howard
18 Wisconsin 25 100% 25 1 B10 W Illinois
  Conf Week 2Pts/Wins 145 9.3 13 8 B10  
Rnk School Proj Pts Proj W Margin Wins? Conf opponent
11 Baylor 25 99% 25 1 B12 Northwestern LA
58 Iowa St -10 25% -4 0 B12 Kansas St
92 Kansas 24 95% 6 1 B12 SE Missouri St
23 Kansas St 10 75% 4 1 B12 Iowa St
5 Oklahoma 25 90% 25 1 B12 Tulsa
8 Oklahoma St 25 98% 17 1 B12 Missouri St
37 TCU 0 0% off off B12  
25 Texas 3 58% -25 0 B12 BYU
42 Texas Tech 15 77% 4 1 B12 UTEP
35 West Virginia 23 86% 25 1 B12 Towson
  Conf Week 2Pts/Wins 140 7.031132064 77 7 B12  
Rnk School Proj Pts Proj W Margin Wins? Conf opponent
95 FL Atlantic -25 1% -41 0 CUSA Alabama
126 Florida Intl 8 71% 25 1 CUSA Wagner
112 Louisiana Tech -12 25% 25 1 CUSA ULL
67 Marshall 25 97% 25 1 CUSA Rhode Island
91 Middle Tenn St -21 8% -11 0 CUSA Minnesota
70 North Texas 9 73% 25 1 CUSA SMU
105 Old Dominion -3 44% -12 0 CUSA NC State
78 Rice 0 0% off off CUSA  
120 Southern Miss 17 83% 6 1 CUSA Alcorn St
85 UAB -20 15% -13 0 CUSA Mississippi St
47 UT San Antonio -4 40% -3 0 CUSA Arizona
99 UTEP -15 23% -4 0 CUSA Texas Tech
49 W Kentucky 8 65% -8 0 CUSA Illinois
  Conf Week 2Pts/Wins -33 5.459104377 14 5 CUSA  
115 Army -3 43% 8 1 Ind Buffalo
27 BYU -3 42% 25 1 Ind Texas
56 Navy -2 45% 7 1 Ind Temple
20 Notre Dame 11 75% 25 1 Ind Michigan
  Conf Week 2Pts/Wins 3 2.06046876 65 4 Ind  
Rnk School Proj Pts Proj W Margin Wins? Conf opponent
113 Akron -25 3% -18 0 MAC Penn St
77 Ball St -16 16% -4 0 MAC Iowa
94 Bowling Green 25 99% 25 1 MAC VMI
102 Buffalo 3 57% -8 0 MAC Army
97 C Michigan 0 50% 21 1 MAC Purdue
125 E Michigan -25 1% -25 0 MAC Florida
110 Kent 0 50% -10 0 MAC South Alabama
128 Massachusetts -13 18% -3 0 MAC Colorado
127 Miami OH -3 41% -7 0 MAC E Kentucky
68 N Illinois -3 43% 8 0 MAC Northwestern
89 Ohio -12 25% -17 0 MAC Kentucky
73 Toledo -16 18% -25 0 MAC Missouri
124 W Michigan 0 0% off off MAC  
  Conf Week 2Pts/Wins -85 4.205267847 -63 2 MAC  
Rnk School Proj Pts Proj W Margin Wins? Conf opponent
116 Air Force -9 32% -4 0 MWC Wyoming
69 Boise St 7 66% 13 1 MWC Colorado St
76 Colorado St -7 34% -13 0 MWC Boise St
66 Fresno St -11 29% -25 0 MWC Utah
100 Hawaii -19 16% -8 0 MWC Oregon St
93 Nevada -7 35% 11 1 MWC Washington St
119 New Mexico -25 4% -25 0 MWC Arizona St
83 San Diego St -16 18% -4 0 MWC North Carolina
75 San Jose St -25 7% -25 0 MWC Auburn
101 UNLV 21 89% 1 1 MWC N Colorado
90 Utah St 25 99% 20 1 MWC Idaho St
106 Wyoming 9 68% 4 1 MWC Air Force
  Conf Week 2Pts/Wins -57 4.983069696 -55 5 MWC  
Rnk School Proj Pts Proj W Margin Wins? Conf opponent
26 Arizona 4 60% 3 1 P12 UT San Antonio
21 Arizona St 25 96% 25 1 P12 New Mexico
60 California 25 90% 25 1 P12 CS Sacramento
87 Colorado 13 82% 3 1 P12 Massachusetts
6 Oregon 10 73% 19 1 P12 Michigan St
33 Oregon St 19 84% 8 1 P12 Hawaii
2 Stanford 9 74% -3 0 P12 USC
15 UCLA 25 98% 7 1 P12 Memphis
17 USC -9 26% 3 0 P12 Stanford
43 Utah 11 71% 25 1 P12 Fresno St
24 Washington 25 90% 7 1 P12 E Washington
57 Washington St 7 65% -11 0 P12 Nevada
  Conf Week 2Pts/Wins 164 9.077664054 111 9 P12  
Rnk School Proj Pts Proj W Margin Wins? Conf opponent
121 Appalachian St 25 99% 25 1 SBC Campbell
61 Arkansas St -15 19% -15 0 SBC Tennessee
118 Ga Southern 25 94% 25 1 SBC Savannah St
123 Georgia St -5 40% -3 0 SBC New Mexico St
122 Idaho -25 7% -7 0 SBC ULM
109 New Mexico St 5 60% 3 1 SBC Georgia St
88 South Alabama 0 50% 10 1 SBC Kent
117 Texas St 0 0% off off SBC  
111 Troy -20 15% -17 0 SBC Duke
82 ULL 12 75% -25 0 SBC Louisiana Tech
79 ULM 25 93% 7 1 SBC Idaho
  Conf Week 2Pts/Wins 27 5.503410492 3 5 SBC  
Rnk School Proj Pts Proj W Margin Wins? Conf opponent
4 Alabama 25 99% 25 1 SEC FL Atlantic
53 Arkansas 25 100% 25 1 SEC Nicholls St
7 Auburn 25 93% 25 1 SEC San Jose St
51 Florida 25 99% 25 1 SEC E Michigan
12 Georgia 0 0% off off SEC  
74 Kentucky 12 75% 17 1 SEC Ohio
9 LSU 25 96% 25 1 SEC Sam Houston St
19 Mississippi 12 85% 25 1 SEC Vanderbilt
31 Mississippi St 20 85% 13 1 SEC UAB
13 Missouri 16 82% 25 1 SEC Toledo
22 South Carolina 11 73% 10 1 SEC East Carolina
30 Tennessee 15 81% 15 1 SEC Arkansas St
10 Texas A&M 25 99% 25 1 SEC Lamar
65 Vanderbilt -12 15% -25 0 SEC Mississippi
  Conf Week 2Pts/Wins 224 10.82976902 230 12 SEC

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