The Big 12’s Black Monday

Big 12 advocates grumbled when Breitbart Sports rated the Big 12 as the fourth best conference for the regular season, and then the committee did not choose a Big 12 team for the first playoffs. Both were vindicated Monday as the Big 12 was beaten up in their first three games to fall to 5th in the Conference Ratings (see table below) – making it clear the Pac-12 and SEC are in a two-way battle for best conference this bowl season.

West Virginia’s Skyler Howard capped a big day with his third-down pass late in the fourth quarter, but the Mountaineers still feel short 45-37 against Texas A&M. Meanwhile the two marquee programs, Texas and Oklahoma, were drubbed by Arkansas and Clemson respectively. Nebraska had left the Big 12 after Texas maneuvered to end the Nebraska-Oklahoma rivalry to put the focus on the Red River Showdown.

The Conference Bowl Standings are now as follows:

+19 – The SEC needed 7.9 wins by a margin of +65 to back up their rating of +16. Monday’s wins put them ahead of that pace with a 3-0 mark by a 35-point margin with nine games to play, but will fall if touchdown favorite Georgia or LSU slip today.

+16 – The Pac-12 also has a 3-0 mark and 33-point margin and will need their biggest favorite – Stanford – to be strong today against Maryland of the Big Ten.

+8 The Big Ten has moved up to 3rd as the best of the rest. Their teams were underdogs in all 10 Bowl Games, but are already 2-2 and exactly even in scoring margin. A Maryland upset today would be a huge.

+7 The ACC has been exactly as good as expected to stay at +7, and could get a huge boost if Louisville can upset Georgia today to follow-up on Georgia Tech’s win against them at the end of the regular season.

+5 The Big 12 desperately needs a win New Year’s Eve from TCU, one of the two teams they thought deserved a playoff spot.

-4 Conference USA has all but wrapped up their standing as the best of the Group of 5 conferences.

Conference Team %W Pred Opponent Win? Margin Adjust
Cincinnati 40% -3.5 Virginia Tech 0 -16.0 (1.30)
East Carolina 21% -10.5 Florida 3-Jan
Houston 30% -6.5 Pittsburgh 2-Jan
Memphis 49% -0.5 BYU 1 1.0 1.08
UCF 47% -2.5 NC State 0 -7.0 (1.12)
American Athletic starts at -8 1.9 (23.5) 1.0 (22.0) (9)
Boston College 65% 5.5 Penn St 0 -1.0 (1.56)
Clemson 41% -3.5 Oklahoma 1 25.0 2.32
Duke 28% -7.5 Arizona St 0 -5.0 (0.46)
Florida St 20% -10.5 Oregon 1-Jan
Georgia Tech 39% -3.5 Mississippi St 31-Dec
Louisville 29% -6.5 Georgia 3-Dec
Miami FL 46% -2.5 South Carolina 0 -3.0 (0.94)
NC State 53% 2.5 UCF 1 7.0 1.12
North Carolina 59% 3.5 Rutgers 0 -19.0 (2.08)
Pittsburgh 70% 6.5 Houston 2-Jan
Virginia Tech 60% 3.5 Cincinnati 1 16.0 1.30
Atlantic Coast starts at 7 5.1 (12.5) 3.0 20.0 7
Illinois 37% -4.5 Louisiana Tech 0 -17.0 (1.24)
Iowa 37% -4.5 Tennessee 2-Jan
Maryland 15% -14.5 Stanford 3-Dec
Michigan St 50% -0.5 Baylor 1-Jan
Minnesota 29% -7.5 Missouri 1-Jan
Nebraska 37% -4.5 USC 0 -3.0 (0.68)
Ohio St 31% -6.5 Alabama 1-Jan
Penn St 35% -5.5 Boston College 1 1.0 1.56
Rutgers 41% -3.5 North Carolina 1 19.0 2.08
Wisconsin 32% -6.5 Auburn 1-Jan
Big 10 starts at 6 3.4 (58.0) 2.0 8
Baylor 50% 0.5 Michigan St 1-Jan
Kansas St 51% 0.5 UCLA 2-Jan
Oklahoma 59% 3.5 Clemson 0 -25.0 (2.32)
Oklahoma St 32% -6.5 Washington 2-Jan
TCU 49% -0.5 Mississippi 31-Dec
Texas 26% -7.5 Arkansas 0 -24.0 (1.18)
West Virginia 47% -1.5 Texas A&M 0 -8.0 (1.20)
Big 12 starts at 10 3.1 (11.5) (57.0) 5
Louisiana Tech 63% 4.5 Illinois 1 17.0 1.24
Marshall 72% 7.5 N Illinois 1 25.0 1.26
Rice 55% 2.5 Fresno St 1 24.0 1.76
UTEP 20% -10.5 Utah St 0 -15.0 (0.58)
W Kentucky 67% 5.5 C Michigan 1 1.0 0.48
Conference USA starts at -8 2.8 9.5 (4)
BYU 51% 0.5 Memphis 0 -1.0 (1.08)
Navy 44% -2.5 @ San Diego St 1 1.0 1.26
Notre Dame 28% -7.5 LSU 30-Dec
FBS Indep starts at -1 0.7 (10.0) 1.0 1.0 (1)
Bowling Green 48% -1.5 South Alabama 1 5.0 1.30
C Michigan 33% -5.5 W Kentucky 0 -1.0 (0.48)
N Illinois 28% -7.5 Marshall 0 -25.0 (1.26)
Toledo 53% 1.5 Arkansas St 4-Jan
W Michigan 45% -2.5 Air Force 0 -14.0 (1.36)
Mid-American starts at -14 2.1 (15.5) 1.0 (35.0) (16)
Air Force 55% 2.5 W Michigan 1 14.0 1.36
Boise St 29% -6.5 Arizona 31-Dec
Colorado St 33% -6.5 Utah 0 -25.0 (1.40)
Fresno St 45% -2.5 Rice -24.0 (1.76)
Nevada 66% 5.5 ULL 0 -13.0 (2.06)
San Diego St 56% 2.5 Navy 0 -1.0 (1.26)
Utah St 80% 10.5 UTEP 1 15.0 0.58
Mountain West starts at -7 3.6 5.5 2.0 (34.0) (12)
Arizona 71% 6.5 Boise St 31-Dec
Arizona St 72% 7.5 Duke 1 5.0 0.46
Oregon 80% 10.5 Florida St 1-Jan
Stanford 85% 14.5 Maryland 30-Dec
UCLA 49% -0.5 Kansas St 2-Jan
USC 63% 4.5 Nebraska 1 3.0 0.68
Utah 67% 6.5 Colorado St 1 25.0 1.40
Washington 68% 6.5 Oklahoma St 2-Jan
Pac 12 starts at 13 5.6 56.0 3.0 33.0 16
Alabama 69% 6.5 Ohio St 1-Jan
Arkansas 74% 7.5 Texas 1 24.0 1.18
Auburn 68% 6.5 Wisconsin 1-Jan
Florida 79% 10.5 East Carolina 3-Jan
Georgia 71% 6.5 Louisville 3-Dec
LSU 72% 7.5 Notre Dame 3-Dec
Mississippi 51% 0.5 TCU 31-Dec
Mississippi St 61% 3.5 Georgia Tech 31-Dec
Missouri 71% 7.5 Minnesota 1-Jan
South Carolina 54% 2.5 Miami FL 1 3.0 0.94
Tennessee 63% 4.5 Iowa 2-Jan
Texas A&M 53% 1.5 West Virginia 1 8.0 1.20
Southeastern starts at 16 7.9 65.0 19
Arkansas St 47% -1.5 Toledo 4-Jan
South Alabama 52% 1.5 Bowling Green 0 -5.0 (1.30)
ULL 34% -5.5 Nevada 1 13.0 2.06
Sun Belt starts at -14 1.3 (5.5) 1.0 8.0 (13)


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