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Emperor Has No Clothes: SEC Exposed in Drubbings

SEC teams averaged less than 20 points a game against the two Mississippi schools this season. Those two schools played their first games all season against other Power 5 teams New Year’s Eve, and both gave up 42 points by the end of the third quarter.

Breitbart Sports was as lonely as the child stating that the Emperor had no clothes when noting in November that the SEC was not the best conference in the 2014 regular season.

After an embarrassing 0-3 Monday for the Big 12, TCU put the conference right back in the conversation for best conference by destroying Mississippi 42-0 through three quarters in a 42-3 win. The top 3 in the system explained here are:

1. SEC +14.7

2. Pac-12 +14.2

3. Big 12 +12.7

Points indicate the margin the average team in the conference would likely defeat the average team–based on all bowl results and how strong each team was in comparison to the rest of their conference.

The only thing saving the SEC in the scoring system is that we cap victories at 25-points. Georgia Tech then followed up it’s win at Georgia by blitzing Mississippi State 42-20 through three quarters, before easing up for a 49-34 win.

The fact that the 10th, 11th and 12th best teams in the SEC are good enough to be in postseason play still gives the conference the chance to be the best overall in bowl games. But the myth of the conference vast superiority to every other conference no longer holds. With the top-3 conferences now in a very close race for the top bowl season, we have to break the rankings down to decimal points through the New Year’s Eve games.

The Pac-12 missed a chance to pass the SEC outright when Arizona ran out of time deep in Boise State territory to lose some ground. The three conferences rate five points better than the ACC and Big Ten so far, and more that two touchdowns better than the best Group of 5 conference–Conference USA.

4. ACC +7.4

5. Big Ten +7.0

Independents +2.1

6. CUSA -3.8

7. American Athletic -9.3

8. Mountain West -9.5 (helped by Boise State’s upset win)

9. Sun Belt -13.0

10. Mid-American -15.8

Conference Team %W Pred Opponent Win? Margin Adjust
Cincinnati 40% -3.5 Virginia Tech 0 -16.0 (1.30)
East Carolina 21% -10.5 Florida 3-Jan
Houston 30% -6.5 Pittsburgh 2-Jan
Memphis 49% -0.5 BYU 1 1.0 1.08
UCF 47% -2.5 NC State 0 -7.0 (1.12)
American Athletic started at -8 1.9 (23.5) 1.0 (22.0) (9.3)
Boston College 65% 5.5 Penn St 0 -1.0 (1.56)
Clemson 41% -3.5 Oklahoma 1 25.0 2.32
Duke 28% -7.5 Arizona St 0 -5.0 (0.46)
Florida St 20% -10.5 Oregon 1-Jan
Georgia Tech 39% -3.5 Mississippi St 1 15.0 1.96
Louisville 29% -6.5 Georgia 0 -23.0 (1.24)
Miami FL 46% -2.5 South Carolina 0 -3.0 (0.94)
NC State 53% 2.5 UCF 1 7.0 1.12
North Carolina 59% 3.5 Rutgers 0 -19.0 (2.08)
Pittsburgh 70% 6.5 Houston 2-Jan
Virginia Tech 60% 3.5 Cincinnati 1 16.0 1.30
Atlantic Coast started at 7 5.1 (12.5) 4.0 22.0 7.4
Illinois 37% -4.5 Louisiana Tech 0 -17.0 (1.24)
Iowa 37% -4.5 Tennessee 2-Jan
Maryland 15% -14.5 Stanford 0 -24.0 (0.68)
Michigan St 50% -0.5 Baylor 1-Jan
Minnesota 29% -7.5 Missouri 1-Jan
Nebraska 37% -4.5 USC 0 -3.0 (0.68)
Ohio St 31% -6.5 Alabama 1-Jan
Penn St 35% -5.5 Boston College 1 1.0 1.56
Rutgers 41% -3.5 North Carolina 1 19.0 2.08
Wisconsin 32% -6.5 Auburn 1-Jan
Big 10 started at 6 3.4 (58.0) 2.0 (24.0) 7.0
Baylor 50% 0.5 Michigan St 1-Jan
Kansas St 51% 0.5 UCLA 2-Jan
Oklahoma 59% 3.5 Clemson 0 -25.0 (2.32)
Oklahoma St 32% -6.5 Washington 2-Jan
TCU 49% -0.5 Mississippi 1 25.0 2.04
Texas 26% -7.5 Arkansas 0 -24.0 (1.18)
West Virginia 47% -1.5 Texas A&M 0 -8.0 (1.20)
Big 12 started at 10 3.1 (11.5) 1.0 (32.0) 12.7
Louisiana Tech 63% 4.5 Illinois 1 17.0 1.24
Marshall 72% 7.5 N Illinois 1 25.0 1.26
Rice 55% 2.5 Fresno St 1 24.0 1.76
UTEP 20% -10.5 Utah St 0 -15.0 (0.58)
W Kentucky 67% 5.5 C Michigan 1 1.0 0.48
Conference USA started at -8 2.8 9.5 4.0 52.0 (3.8)
BYU 51% 0.5 Memphis 0 -1.0 (1.08)
Navy 44% -2.5 @ San Diego St 1 1.0 1.26
Notre Dame 28% -7.5 LSU 1 3.0 1.86
FBS Indep started at -1 0.7 (10.0) 2.0 4.0 2.1
Bowling Green 48% -1.5 South Alabama 1 5.0 1.30
C Michigan 33% -5.5 W Kentucky 0 -1.0 (0.48)
N Illinois 28% -7.5 Marshall 0 -25.0 (1.26)
Toledo 53% 1.5 Arkansas St 4-Jan
W Michigan 45% -2.5 Air Force 0 -14.0 (1.36)
Mid-American started at -14 2.1 (15.5) 1.0 (35.0) (15.8)
Air Force 55% 2.5 W Michigan 1 14.0 1.36
Boise St 29% -6.5 Arizona 1 8.0 2.00
Colorado St 33% -6.5 Utah 0 -25.0 (1.40)
Fresno St 45% -2.5 Rice -24.0 (1.76)
Nevada 66% 5.5 ULL 0 -13.0 (2.06)
San Diego St 56% 2.5 Navy 0 -1.0 (1.26)
Utah St 80% 10.5 UTEP 1 15.0 0.58
Mountain West started at -7 3.6 5.5 3.0 (26.0) (9.5)
Arizona 71% 6.5 Boise St 0 -8.0 (2.00)
Arizona St 72% 7.5 Duke 1 5.0 0.46
Oregon 80% 10.5 Florida St 1-Jan
Stanford 85% 14.5 Maryland 1 24.0 0.68
UCLA 49% -0.5 Kansas St 2-Jan
USC 63% 4.5 Nebraska 1 3.0 0.68
Utah 67% 6.5 Colorado St 1 25.0 1.40
Washington 68% 6.5 Oklahoma St 2-Jan
Pac 12 started at 13 5.6 56.0 4.0 49.0 14.2
Alabama 69% 6.5 Ohio St The 1-Jan
Arkansas 74% 7.5 Texas 1 24.0 1.18
Auburn 68% 6.5 Wisconsin 1-Jan
Florida 79% 10.5 East Carolina 3-Jan
Georgia 71% 6.5 Louisville 1 23.0 1.24
LSU 72% 7.5 Notre Dame 0 -3.0 (1.86)
Mississippi 51% 0.5 TCU 0 -25.0 (2.04)
Mississippi St 61% 3.5 Georgia Tech 0 -15.0 (1.96)
Missouri 71% 7.5 Minnesota 1-Jan
South Carolina 54% 2.5 Miami FL 1 3.0 0.94
Tennessee 63% 4.5 Iowa 2-Jan
Texas A&M 53% 1.5 West Virginia 1 8.0 1.20
Southeastern started at 16 7.9 65.0 4.0 5.0 14.7
Arkansas St 47% -1.5 Toledo 4-Jan
South Alabama 52% 1.5 Bowling Green 0 -5.0 (1.30)
ULL 34% -5.5 Nevada 1 13.0 2.06
Sun Belt started at -14 1.3 (5.5) 1.0 8.0 (13.0)

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