SEC teams averaged less than 20 points a game against the two Mississippi schools this season. Those two schools played their first games all season against other Power 5 teams New Year’s Eve, and both gave up 42 points by the end of the third quarter.
Breitbart Sports was as lonely as the child stating that the Emperor had no clothes when noting in November that the SEC was not the best conference in the 2014 regular season.
After an embarrassing 0-3 Monday for the Big 12, TCU put the conference right back in the conversation for best conference by destroying Mississippi 42-0 through three quarters in a 42-3 win. The top 3 in the system explained here are:
1. SEC +14.7
2. Pac-12 +14.2
3. Big 12 +12.7
Points indicate the margin the average team in the conference would likely defeat the average team–based on all bowl results and how strong each team was in comparison to the rest of their conference.
The only thing saving the SEC in the scoring system is that we cap victories at 25-points. Georgia Tech then followed up it’s win at Georgia by blitzing Mississippi State 42-20 through three quarters, before easing up for a 49-34 win.
The fact that the 10th, 11th and 12th best teams in the SEC are good enough to be in postseason play still gives the conference the chance to be the best overall in bowl games. But the myth of the conference vast superiority to every other conference no longer holds. With the top-3 conferences now in a very close race for the top bowl season, we have to break the rankings down to decimal points through the New Year’s Eve games.
The Pac-12 missed a chance to pass the SEC outright when Arizona ran out of time deep in Boise State territory to lose some ground. The three conferences rate five points better than the ACC and Big Ten so far, and more that two touchdowns better than the best Group of 5 conference–Conference USA.
4. ACC +7.4
5. Big Ten +7.0
Independents +2.1
6. CUSA -3.8
7. American Athletic -9.3
8. Mountain West -9.5 (helped by Boise State’s upset win)
9. Sun Belt -13.0
10. Mid-American -15.8
Conference Team | %W | Pred | Opponent | Win? | Margin | Adjust |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati | 40% | -3.5 | Virginia Tech | 0 | -16.0 | (1.30) |
East Carolina | 21% | -10.5 | Florida | 3-Jan | ||
Houston | 30% | -6.5 | Pittsburgh | 2-Jan | ||
Memphis | 49% | -0.5 | BYU | 1 | 1.0 | 1.08 |
UCF | 47% | -2.5 | NC State | 0 | -7.0 | (1.12) |
American Athletic started at -8 | 1.9 | (23.5) | – | 1.0 | (22.0) | (9.3) |
Boston College | 65% | 5.5 | Penn St | 0 | -1.0 | (1.56) |
Clemson | 41% | -3.5 | Oklahoma | 1 | 25.0 | 2.32 |
Duke | 28% | -7.5 | Arizona St | 0 | -5.0 | (0.46) |
Florida St | 20% | -10.5 | Oregon | 1-Jan | ||
Georgia Tech | 39% | -3.5 | Mississippi St | 1 | 15.0 | 1.96 |
Louisville | 29% | -6.5 | Georgia | 0 | -23.0 | (1.24) |
Miami FL | 46% | -2.5 | South Carolina | 0 | -3.0 | (0.94) |
NC State | 53% | 2.5 | UCF | 1 | 7.0 | 1.12 |
North Carolina | 59% | 3.5 | Rutgers | 0 | -19.0 | (2.08) |
Pittsburgh | 70% | 6.5 | Houston | 2-Jan | ||
Virginia Tech | 60% | 3.5 | Cincinnati | 1 | 16.0 | 1.30 |
Atlantic Coast started at 7 | 5.1 | (12.5) | – | 4.0 | 22.0 | 7.4 |
Illinois | 37% | -4.5 | Louisiana Tech | 0 | -17.0 | (1.24) |
Iowa | 37% | -4.5 | Tennessee | 2-Jan | ||
Maryland | 15% | -14.5 | Stanford | 0 | -24.0 | (0.68) |
Michigan St | 50% | -0.5 | Baylor | 1-Jan | ||
Minnesota | 29% | -7.5 | Missouri | 1-Jan | ||
Nebraska | 37% | -4.5 | USC | 0 | -3.0 | (0.68) |
Ohio St | 31% | -6.5 | Alabama | 1-Jan | ||
Penn St | 35% | -5.5 | Boston College | 1 | 1.0 | 1.56 |
Rutgers | 41% | -3.5 | North Carolina | 1 | 19.0 | 2.08 |
Wisconsin | 32% | -6.5 | Auburn | 1-Jan | ||
Big 10 started at 6 | 3.4 | (58.0) | – | 2.0 | (24.0) | 7.0 |
Baylor | 50% | 0.5 | Michigan St | 1-Jan | ||
Kansas St | 51% | 0.5 | UCLA | 2-Jan | ||
Oklahoma | 59% | 3.5 | Clemson | 0 | -25.0 | (2.32) |
Oklahoma St | 32% | -6.5 | Washington | 2-Jan | ||
TCU | 49% | -0.5 | Mississippi | 1 | 25.0 | 2.04 |
Texas | 26% | -7.5 | Arkansas | 0 | -24.0 | (1.18) |
West Virginia | 47% | -1.5 | Texas A&M | 0 | -8.0 | (1.20) |
Big 12 started at 10 | 3.1 | (11.5) | – | 1.0 | (32.0) | 12.7 |
Louisiana Tech | 63% | 4.5 | Illinois | 1 | 17.0 | 1.24 |
Marshall | 72% | 7.5 | N Illinois | 1 | 25.0 | 1.26 |
Rice | 55% | 2.5 | Fresno St | 1 | 24.0 | 1.76 |
UTEP | 20% | -10.5 | Utah St | 0 | -15.0 | (0.58) |
W Kentucky | 67% | 5.5 | C Michigan | 1 | 1.0 | 0.48 |
Conference USA started at -8 | 2.8 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 52.0 | (3.8) | |
– | ||||||
BYU | 51% | 0.5 | Memphis | 0 | -1.0 | (1.08) |
Navy | 44% | -2.5 | @ San Diego St | 1 | 1.0 | 1.26 |
Notre Dame | 28% | -7.5 | LSU | 1 | 3.0 | 1.86 |
FBS Indep started at -1 | 0.7 | (10.0) | – | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 |
– | ||||||
Bowling Green | 48% | -1.5 | South Alabama | 1 | 5.0 | 1.30 |
C Michigan | 33% | -5.5 | W Kentucky | 0 | -1.0 | (0.48) |
N Illinois | 28% | -7.5 | Marshall | 0 | -25.0 | (1.26) |
Toledo | 53% | 1.5 | Arkansas St | 4-Jan | ||
W Michigan | 45% | -2.5 | Air Force | 0 | -14.0 | (1.36) |
Mid-American started at -14 | 2.1 | (15.5) | – | 1.0 | (35.0) | (15.8) |
Air Force | 55% | 2.5 | W Michigan | 1 | 14.0 | 1.36 |
Boise St | 29% | -6.5 | Arizona | 1 | 8.0 | 2.00 |
Colorado St | 33% | -6.5 | Utah | 0 | -25.0 | (1.40) |
Fresno St | 45% | -2.5 | Rice | -24.0 | (1.76) | |
Nevada | 66% | 5.5 | ULL | 0 | -13.0 | (2.06) |
San Diego St | 56% | 2.5 | Navy | 0 | -1.0 | (1.26) |
Utah St | 80% | 10.5 | UTEP | 1 | 15.0 | 0.58 |
Mountain West started at -7 | 3.6 | 5.5 | – | 3.0 | (26.0) | (9.5) |
Arizona | 71% | 6.5 | Boise St | 0 | -8.0 | (2.00) |
Arizona St | 72% | 7.5 | Duke | 1 | 5.0 | 0.46 |
Oregon | 80% | 10.5 | Florida St | 1-Jan | ||
Stanford | 85% | 14.5 | Maryland | 1 | 24.0 | 0.68 |
UCLA | 49% | -0.5 | Kansas St | 2-Jan | ||
USC | 63% | 4.5 | Nebraska | 1 | 3.0 | 0.68 |
Utah | 67% | 6.5 | Colorado St | 1 | 25.0 | 1.40 |
Washington | 68% | 6.5 | Oklahoma St | 2-Jan | ||
Pac 12 started at 13 | 5.6 | 56.0 | – | 4.0 | 49.0 | 14.2 |
Alabama | 69% | 6.5 | Ohio St | The | 1-Jan | |
Arkansas | 74% | 7.5 | Texas | 1 | 24.0 | 1.18 |
Auburn | 68% | 6.5 | Wisconsin | 1-Jan | ||
Florida | 79% | 10.5 | East Carolina | 3-Jan | ||
Georgia | 71% | 6.5 | Louisville | 1 | 23.0 | 1.24 |
LSU | 72% | 7.5 | Notre Dame | 0 | -3.0 | (1.86) |
Mississippi | 51% | 0.5 | TCU | 0 | -25.0 | (2.04) |
Mississippi St | 61% | 3.5 | Georgia Tech | 0 | -15.0 | (1.96) |
Missouri | 71% | 7.5 | Minnesota | 1-Jan | ||
South Carolina | 54% | 2.5 | Miami FL | 1 | 3.0 | 0.94 |
Tennessee | 63% | 4.5 | Iowa | 2-Jan | ||
Texas A&M | 53% | 1.5 | West Virginia | 1 | 8.0 | 1.20 |
Southeastern started at 16 | 7.9 | 65.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 14.7 | |
Arkansas St | 47% | -1.5 | Toledo | 4-Jan | ||
South Alabama | 52% | 1.5 | Bowling Green | 0 | -5.0 | (1.30) |
ULL | 34% | -5.5 | Nevada | 1 | 13.0 | 2.06 |
Sun Belt started at -14 | 1.3 | (5.5) | – | 1.0 | 8.0 | (13.0) |
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