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Oregon Rose Bowl Rout Puts Exclamation Point on Pac-12’s Supremacy

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When Breitbart Sports calculated that the Pac-12 ranked as the top conference due to being +12 points better than the average team, SEC partisans vehemently disagreed. Few dispute that the Pac-12 stands as No. 1 again in the bowl season with an even more impressive +15.2 point rating. The SEC needs a Tennessee win over Iowa Friday to hold off the Big Ten for No. 2.

Oregon’s 59-20 drubbing of Florida State in the Rose Bowl gives the Pac-12 a 5-1 mark with UCLA and Washington still playing Friday and Oregon playing for the National title on January 12 against Ohio State.

The bowl season has almost mirrored the regular season for the SEC and the Big Ten, with the SEC starting out as the dominant conference and the Big Ten virtually written off by Breitbart Sports and everyone else. The SEC meanwhile started 5-1 against Power Conferences and at one point had five SEC West teams in the top seven in the nation in a computer rating.

However, on September 22, Breitbart Sports reported that the Big Ten had completely turned around the season with a 12-1 burst that included lowly Indiana stunning eventual SEC East champion Missouri. That game began a five-game losing streak against Power Conferences for the SEC.

The SEC likewise started hot in the Bowl games with Arkansas and SEC East teams winning to seemingly put the conference in an easy position to be ranked as the top conference. However, all five SEC West teams that had been rated in the top seven at one point lost their Bowl games–concluding with Ohio State stunning Alabama in the Sugar Bowl/Semifinal.

While Missouri beat Minnesota, Wisconsin also beat Auburn to give the Big Ten a 2-1 mark against the SEC on New Year’s Day. Because the SEC has put 10th, 11th, and 12th place teams on the field whereas the lower-ranked teams in other conferences do not make bowl games, the SEC still has an overall slight edge over the Big Ten for second place that should hold up if Tennessee beats Iowa Friday. However, an Iowa win would complete a turnaround from when Urban Meyer–ironically–put the SEC on top with Florida’s blowout of his current Ohio State team.

Michigan State’s huge rally to defeat Baylor helped propel the Big Ten surge into the top 3 (Note: An error in yesterday’s story showed the Big 12 four points higher than they actually were at that point).

The ratings with just a few games to go are:

1. Pac-12 +15.2 (points better than average team)

2. SEC +12.1

3. Big Ten +10.9

4. Big 12 +7.3

5. ACC +6.4

Independents +2.1

6. Conference USA -3.8

7. American Athletic -9.3

8. Mountain West -9.5

9. Sun Belt -13.0

10. Mid-American -15.8

Conference Team %W Pred Opponent Win? Margin Adjust
Cincinnati 40% -3.5 Virginia Tech 0 -16.0 (1.30)
East Carolina 21% -10.5 Florida 3-Jan
Houston 30% -6.5 Pittsburgh 2-Jan
Memphis 49% -0.5 BYU 1 1.0 1.08
UCF 47% -2.5 NC State 0 -7.0 (1.12)
American -9.3 below average 1.9 (23.5) 1.0 (22.0) (9.3)
Boston College 65% 5.5 Penn St 0 -1.0 (1.56)
Clemson 41% -3.5 Oklahoma 1 25.0 2.32
Duke 28% -7.5 Arizona St 0 -5.0 (0.46)
Florida St 20% -10.5 Oregon 0 -25.0 (0.98)
Georgia Tech 39% -3.5 Mississippi St 1 15.0 1.96
Louisville 29% -6.5 Georgia 0 -23.0 (1.24)
Miami FL 46% -2.5 South Carolina 0 -3.0 (0.94)
NC State 53% 2.5 UCF 1 7.0 1.12
North Carolina 59% 3.5 Rutgers 0 -19.0 (2.08)
Pittsburgh 70% 6.5 Houston 2-Jan
Virginia Tech 60% 3.5 Cincinnati 1 16.0 1.30
Atlantic Coast +6.4 > Average 5.1 (12.5) 4.0 (13.0) 6.4
Illinois 37% -4.5 Louisiana Tech 0 -17.0 (1.24)
Iowa 37% -4.5 Tennessee 2-Jan
Maryland 15% -14.5 Stanford 0 -24.0 (0.68)
Michigan St 50% -0.5 Baylor 1 1.0 1.06
Minnesota 29% -7.5 Missouri 0 -16.0 (0.92)
Nebraska 37% -4.5 USC 0 -3.0 (0.68)
Ohio St 31% -6.5 Alabama 1 7.0 1.92
Penn St 35% -5.5 Boston College 1 1.0 1.56
Rutgers 41% -3.5 North Carolina 1 19.0 2.08
Wisconsin 32% -6.5 Auburn 1 1.0 1.66
Big 10 +10.7 > average 3.4 (58.0) 5.0 (31.0) 10.9
Baylor 50% 0.5 Michigan St 0 -1.0 (1.06)
Kansas St 51% 0.5 UCLA 2-Jan
Oklahoma 59% 3.5 Clemson 0 -25.0 (2.32)
Oklahoma St 32% -6.5 Washington 2-Jan
TCU 49% -0.5 Mississippi 1 25.0 2.04
Texas 26% -7.5 Arkansas 0 -24.0 (1.18)
West Virginia 47% -1.5 Texas A&M 0 -8.0 (1.20)
Big 12 +6.3 > Average 3.1 (11.5) 1.0 (33.0) 7.3
Louisiana Tech 63% 4.5 Illinois 1 17.0 1.24
Marshall 72% 7.5 N Illinois 1 25.0 1.26
Rice 55% 2.5 Fresno St 1 24.0 1.76
UTEP 20% -10.5 Utah St 0 -15.0 (0.58)
W Kentucky 67% 5.5 C Michigan 1 1.0 0.48
CUSA -3.8 below ave 2.8 9.5 4.0 52.0 (3.8)
BYU 51% 0.5 Memphis 0 -1.0 (1.08)
Navy 44% -2.5 @ San Diego St 1 1.0 1.26
Notre Dame 28% -7.5 LSU 1 3.0 1.86
FBS Indep +2.1 > average 0.7 (10.0) 2.0 4.0 2.1
Bowling Green 48% -1.5 South Alabama 1 5.0 1.30
C Michigan 33% -5.5 W Kentucky 0 -1.0 (0.48)
N Illinois 28% -7.5 Marshall 0 -25.0 (1.26)
Toledo 53% 1.5 Arkansas St 4-Jan
W Michigan 45% -2.5 Air Force 0 -14.0 (1.36)
Mid-American -15.8 below ave 2.1 (15.5) 1.0 (35.0) (15.8)
Air Force 55% 2.5 W Michigan 1 14.0 1.36
Boise St 29% -6.5 Arizona 1 8.0 2.00
Colorado St 33% -6.5 Utah 0 -25.0 (1.40)
Fresno St 45% -2.5 Rice -24.0 (1.76)
Nevada 66% 5.5 ULL 0 -13.0 (2.06)
San Diego St 56% 2.5 Navy 0 -1.0 (1.26)
Utah St 80% 10.5 UTEP 1 15.0 0.58
Mountain West -9.5 below ave 3.6 5.5 3.0 (26.0) (9.5)
Arizona 71% 6.5 Boise St 0 -8.0 (2.00)
Arizona St 72% 7.5 Duke 1 5.0 0.46
Oregon 80% 10.5 Florida St 1 25.0 0.98
Stanford 85% 14.5 Maryland 1 24.0 0.68
UCLA 49% -0.5 Kansas St 2-Jan
USC 63% 4.5 Nebraska 1 3.0 0.68
Utah 67% 6.5 Colorado St 1 25.0 1.40
Washington 68% 6.5 Oklahoma St 2-Jan
Pac 12 +15.2 > average 5.6 56.0 5.0 74.0 15.2
Alabama 69% 6.5 Ohio St 0 -7.0 (1.92)
Arkansas 74% 7.5 Texas 1 24.0 1.18
Auburn 68% 6.5 Wisconsin 0 -1.0 (1.66)
Florida 79% 10.5 East Carolina 3-Jan
Georgia 71% 6.5 Louisville 1 23.0 1.24
LSU 72% 7.5 Notre Dame 0 -3.0 (1.86)
Mississippi 51% 0.5 TCU 0 -25.0 (2.04)
Mississippi St 61% 3.5 Georgia Tech 0 -15.0 (1.96)
Missouri 71% 7.5 Minnesota 1 16.0 0.92
South Carolina 54% 2.5 Miami FL 1 3.0 0.94
Tennessee 63% 4.5 Iowa 2-Jan
Texas A&M 53% 1.5 West Virginia 1 8.0 1.20
Southeastern +12.1 > average 7.9 65.0 5.0 23.0 12.1
Arkansas St 47% -1.5 Toledo 4-Jan
South Alabama 52% 1.5 Bowling Green 0 -5.0 (1.30)
ULL 34% -5.5 Nevada 1 13.0 2.06
Sun Belt -13.0 below ave 1.3 (5.5) 1.0 8.0 (13.0)


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