East Preview: UVa Injury Gives Nova Edge in Balanced Bracket

The East looks the most wide open, with five teams within 10 points of each other when comparing seven categories.

Villanova is a slight favorite due partly to Justin Anderson still appearing to be nowhere near 100 percent, and Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Northern Iowa are also very serious threats.

The table rates each team in the bracket on seven criteria (explained below the table), with a second table showing each player in the bracket, how valuable each player is, which are injured, and the chance that each player makes the NBA. Most important is how good the team is (see ESPN’s BPI here) subtracted by the Value Add of any injured players.

In both tables, teams appear in the same order in which they appear on the bracket.

Seed East Bracket BPI Health Hot NBA Exp guard F4 Coach Top3 Total
1 Villanova 90 1 3 2 (1) 95
16 Lafayette 55 1 56
8 North Carolina St. 75 1 1 77
9 LSU 74 -1 1 74
5 Northern Iowa 83 1 1 85
12 Wyoming 62 1 1 2 66
4 Louisville 82 2 1 2 1 88
13 UC Irvine 62 -1 61
6 Providence 77 2 1 2 82
11 Dayton 77 -1 76
11 Boise St. 71 -2 2 3 1 75
3 Oklahoma 84 1 1 1 87
14 Albany 57 1 58
7 Michigan St. 81 -1 1 1 3 3 88
10 Georgia 77 77
2 Virginia 91 -2 -1 1 1 (1) 89
15 Belmont 54 1 55

The most important factor is simply how good a team is based on ESPN’s BPI. Health measures injuries. Hot indicates if the team improved in the closing week. NBA indicates how many NBA players the team will likely product. Exp guard indicates good seniors or juniors in the backcourt. F4 indicates a coach that has made surprising Final Four Runs. Top3 favors teams who rely more on three players who can dominate a game.

The BPI rating is repeated below, followed by how many points each player is worth based on www.valueaddbasketball.com. If a team had a 90 BPI, but a player with a 5.0 Value Add was out injured, then the actual BPI would really be an 85.  However, if a team achieved that BPI despite a key player being injured and now he is back at full strength, we note that as well.

Villanova will try to win the bracket with eight very good players, but no real NBA prospects or superstars. Northern Iowa (Seth Tuttle), Providence (Kris Dunn), Oklahoma (Buddy Hield), and Louisville (Montrezl Harrell) all have players rated higher and with a much better chance of making the NBA than any one player on Villanova’s team. So, the Wildcats will have to contain a couple of superstars along the way to make the Final Four.

Seed East Bracket Players Rating Status NBA Pos Yr Team
1 Villanova 90.20 Villanova
1 Hilliard, Darrun 4 7.35 5% SG Sr Villanova
1 Ochefu, Daniel 23 6.70 4% C Jr Villanova
1 Hart, Josh 3 5.91 2% PF So Villanova
1 Arcidiacono, Ryan 15 5.24 1% PG Jr Villanova
1 Ennis, Dylan 31 4.67 0% SF Jr Villanova
1 Pinkston, JayVaughn 22 4.24 0% PF Sr Villanova
1 Jenkins, Kris 2 3.56 0% SF So Villanova
1 Booth, Phil 5 3.29 0% SG Fr Villanova
1 Lowe, Henry 0 0.83 0% PG Jr Villanova
1 Reynolds, Darryl 14 0.31 0% C So Villanova
16 Lafayette 55.00 Lafayette
16 Lindner, Nick 11 3.31 5% PG So Lafayette
16 Hinrichs, Seth 12 2.98 0% PF Sr Lafayette
16 Ptasinski, Joey 5 2.74 0% SF Sr Lafayette
16 Trist, Dan 20 2.64 0% C Sr Lafayette
16 Scott, Bryce 14 1.98 0% SG Jr Lafayette
16 Rufer, Zach 21 1.50 0% SF Jr Lafayette
16 Stafford, Eric 4 0.34 0% SF Fr Lafayette
16 Hoffman, Michael 24 0.06 0% PF So Lafayette
16 Boykins, Monty 32 0.00 0% SG So Lafayette
16 Flannigan, Alan 22 0.00 0% PF Sr Lafayette
16 Freeland, Ben 34 0.00 0% SF Jr Lafayette
16 Klinewski, Matt 13 0.00 0% C Fr Lafayette
16 Musters, Nathaniel 54 0.00 0% C Jr Lafayette
16 Newman, Jake 33 0.00 0% C So Lafayette
8 North Carolina St. 74.80 North Carolina St.
8 Lacey, Trevor 1 6.18 3% SG Jr North Carolina St.
8 Barber, Anthony 12 4.27 32% PG So North Carolina St.
8 Turner, Ralston 22 4.25 0% SF Sr North Carolina St.
8 Anya, BeeJay 21 2.43 0% PF So North Carolina St.
8 Martin, Caleb 14 1.85 0% SF Fr North Carolina St.
8 Washington, Kyle 32 1.76 0% PF So North Carolina St.
8 Abu, Abdul-Malik 0 1.53 0% PF Fr North Carolina St.
8 Freeman, Lennard 10 1.10 0% C So North Carolina St.
8 Martin, Cody 15 0.88 0% SF Fr North Carolina St.
8 Lee, Desmond 5 0.64 0% SF Jr North Carolina St.
9 LSU 73.90 LSU
9 Martin, Jarell 1 5.91 2% SF So LSU
9 Hornsby, Keith 4 5.08 1% SG Jr LSU
9 Mickey, Jordan 25 4.64 70% PF So LSU
9 Quarterman, Tim 55 4.38 0% SF So LSU
9 Patterson, Jalyn 15 3.36 0% SF Fr LSU
9 Gray, Josh 5 1.67 0% PG Jr LSU
9 Bridgewater, Brian 20 1.18 0% SG So LSU
9 Epps, Aaron 21 0.27 0% PF Fr LSU
9 Malone, Darcy 22 0.00 0% C So LSU
9 Odo, John 31 0.00 0% C Sr LSU
9 Robinson, Elbert 3 0.00 0% C Fr LSU
5 Northern Iowa 83.30 Northern Iowa
5 Tuttle, Seth 10 8.56 12% SF Sr Northern Iowa
5 Morgan, Jeremy 20 4.46 0% SF So Northern Iowa
5 Washpun, Wes 11 3.62 0% PG Jr Northern Iowa
5 Bohannon, Matt 5 2.50 0% SG Jr Northern Iowa
5 Mitchell, Deon 1 2.44 0% PG Sr Northern Iowa
5 Jesperson, Paul 4 2.24 0% PF Jr Northern Iowa
5 Buss, Nate 14 1.82 0% C Sr Northern Iowa
5 Lohaus, Wyatt 33 1.81 0% SG Fr Northern Iowa
5 Singleton, Marvin 12 1.73 0% C Sr Northern Iowa
5 Carlson, Klint 2 0.50 0% SF Fr Northern Iowa
5 Koch, Bennett 25 0.00 0% C Fr Northern Iowa
5 Martino, Max 24 0.00 0% SF Sr Northern Iowa
12 Wyoming 61.90 Wyoming
12 Nance, Larry 22 4.90 PLUS 0% PF Sr Wyoming
12 Cooke, Derek 11 3.67 0% C Sr Wyoming
12 Adams, Josh 14 3.44 0% PG Jr Wyoming
12 Grabau, Riley 2 1.65 0% SG Sr Wyoming
12 Hankerson, Charles 1 1.07 0% SF Sr Wyoming
12 Bentz, Jack 13 0.83 0% PG Sr Wyoming
12 Lieberman, Jeremy 0 0.68 0% SG Fr Wyoming
12 McManamen, Jason 23 0.61 0% SF So Wyoming
12 Herndon, Alan 32 0.13 0% PF Fr Wyoming
12 Aka Gorski, Alexander 3 0.00 0% SF Fr Wyoming
12 Barnes, Jonathan 21 0.00 0% C Fr Wyoming
12 Sellers, Matt 41 0.00 0% C Sr Wyoming
4 Louisville 82.30 Louisville
4 Harrell, Montrezl 24 7.39 92% PF Jr Louisville
4 Rozier, Terry 0 7.25 88% SG So Louisville
4 Blackshear, Wayne 25 5.12 1% SF Sr Louisville
4 Jones, Chris 3 4.86 0% PG Sr Louisville
4 Onuaku, Chinanu 32 2.15 0% C Fr Louisville
4 Mathiang, Mangok 12 1.45 0% C So Louisville
4 Gill, Anton 1 1.29 0% SG So Louisville
4 Snider, Quentin 2 1.20 0% PG Fr Louisville
4 Mahmoud, Anas 14 0.61 0% PF Fr Louisville
4 Levitch, David 23 0.58 0% SF So Louisville
4 Avare, Dillon 4 0.35 0% SF Fr Louisville
4 Johnson, Jaylen 10 0.26 0% PF Fr Louisville
4 Aaron, Shaqquan 21 0.12 0% UK Fr Louisville
13 UC Irvine 62.30 UC Irvine
13 Davis, Will 3 4.35 0% PF Sr UC Irvine
13 Souza, Travis 2 3.40 0% SF Sr UC Irvine
13 Young, Alex 1 2.79 0% SG Jr UC Irvine
13 Martin, Jaron 0 2.24 0% PG So UC Irvine
13 Dunning, Dominique 24 1.64 Quest 0% SF Jr UC Irvine
13 Nelson, Luke 10 1.42 0% PG So UC Irvine
13 Wright, Aaron 32 1.03 0% SF Jr UC Irvine
13 Ryan, John 25 0.92 Quest 0% C Sr UC Irvine
13 Saprykinas, Haroldas 11 0.86 0% SG Fr UC Irvine
13 Best, Mike 33 0.77 0% PF Jr UC Irvine
13 Ndiaye, Mamadou 34 0.74 0% C So UC Irvine
6 Providence 76.60 Providence
6 Dunn, Kris 3 7.94 63% PG So Providence
6 Henton, LaDontae 23 6.73 4% SF Sr Providence
6 Harris, Tyler 25 2.76 0% PF Jr Providence
6 Desrosiers, Carson 33 2.72 0% C Sr Providence
6 Lindsey, Jalen 21 1.28 0% SG Fr Providence
6 Chukwu, Paschal 13 1.20 0% C Fr Providence
6 Bentil, Ben 0 1.19 0% C Fr Providence
6 Cartwright, Kyron 24 1.14 0% PG Fr Providence
6 Lomomba, Junior 32 0.68 0% SG So Providence
6 Bancroft, Ted 22 0.28 Indef 0% PF Sr Providence
11 Dayton 76.70 Dayton
11 Boise St. 71.40 Boise St.
11 Marks, Derrick 2 7.17 5% PG Sr Boise St.
11 Webb, James 23 6.22 3% C So Boise St.
11 Sibert, Jordan 24 6.10 3% SF Sr Dayton
11 Pierre, Dyshawn 21 4.20 0% PF Jr Dayton
11 Davis, Kyle 3 3.61 0% SG So Dayton
11 Smith, Scoochie 11 3.20 0% PG So Dayton
11 Heyer, Robert 22 2.81 0% SF Sr Boise St.
11 Pollard, Kendall 25 2.73 0% PF So Dayton
11 Duncan, Nick 13 2.37 0% PF So Boise St.
11 Davis, Darrell 1 1.27 0% SG Fr Dayton
11 Drmic, Anthony 3 1.26 Season 0% SF Sr Boise St.
11 Hadziomerovic, Igor 12 1.18 0% SG Sr Boise St.
11 Alford, Montigo 21 1.04 0% PG Jr Boise St.
11 Thompson, Mikey 1 0.86 0% SG Jr Boise St.
11 Bass, Ryan 0 0.81 Season 0% PG Sr Dayton
11 Haney, Zach 11 0.76 0% SG Fr Boise St.
11 Wehrli, Bobby 22 0.74 0% PF Jr Dayton
11 Scott, Devon 40 0.72 Susp 0% C Jr Dayton
11 Trent, Dezmyn 0 0.49 Indef 0% SF So Boise St.
11 Hutchison, Chandler 15 0.40 0% PF Fr Boise St.
11 Allen, Kevin 4 0.05 0% C Jr Boise St.
11 Hanstad, Joe 5 0.00 0% SG Sr Boise St.
11 Ness, Jake 34 0.00 Quest 0% C Sr Boise St.
11 Wacker, David 33 0.00 0% C Fr Boise St.
11 Robinson, Jalen 12 0.00 Susp 0% C Jr Dayton
3 Oklahoma 83.50 Oklahoma
3 Hield, Buddy 24 7.46 79% SG Jr Oklahoma
3 Spangler, Ryan 0 6.46 3% C Jr Oklahoma
3 Cousins, Isaiah 11 5.08 1% SF Jr Oklahoma
3 Woodard, Jordan 10 4.77 0% PG So Oklahoma
3 Thomas, TaShawn 35 4.73 0% PF Sr Oklahoma
3 Booker, Frank 1 1.50 0% SF So Oklahoma
3 Walker, Dinjiyl 2 1.44 0% PG Jr Oklahoma
3 Lattin, Khadeem 12 1.43 0% C Fr Oklahoma
3 Bennett, D.J. 31 0.44 0% C Sr Oklahoma
3 Mankin, Austin 41 0.41 0% SF So Oklahoma
3 Cole, C.J. 25 0.04 0% PF So Oklahoma
14 Albany 57.00 Albany
14 Rowley, Sam 14 3.71 0% PF Sr Albany
14 Sanders, Ray 1 2.28 0% C Jr Albany
14 Hooley, Peter 12 1.53 0% SG Jr Albany
14 Singletary, Evan 0 1.41 0% UK Jr Albany
14 Green, Tre 2 0.73 0% SG So Albany
14 Baker, Wheeler 25 0.69 0% SG Fr Albany
14 Ennema, Dallas 24 0.64 0% SF So Albany
14 Stire, Greig 43 0.13 0% UK Fr Albany
14 Peters, Richard 22 0.00 0% C So Albany
14 Rowley, Michael 10 0.00 0% C So Albany
7 Michigan St. 81.10 Michigan St.
7 Trice, Travis 20 5.90 2% PG Sr Michigan St.
7 Valentine, Denzel 45 5.65 2% SF Jr Michigan St.
7 Dawson, Branden 22 4.97 16% PF Sr Michigan St.
7 Costello, Matt 10 3.67 0% C Jr Michigan St.
7 Forbes, Bryn 5 2.63 0% SG Jr Michigan St.
7 Clark, Marvin 0 1.33 Indef 0% PF Fr Michigan St.
7 Schilling, Gavin 34 1.10 0% C So Michigan St.
7 Ellis, Alvin 3 0.91 0% SG So Michigan St.
7 Bess, Javon 2 0.58 0% SF Fr Michigan St.
7 Wollenman, Colby 41 0.20 0% PF Jr Michigan St.
7 Nairn, Lourawls 11 0.00 0% SG Fr Michigan St.
7 Wetzel, Keenan 15 0.00 0% SF Sr Michigan St.
10 Georgia 77.30 Georgia
10 Frazier, J.J. 30 5.77 2% PG So Georgia
10 Thornton, Marcus 2 4.34 0% C Sr Georgia
10 Gaines, Kenny 12 4.06 0% SG Jr Georgia
10 Djurisic, Nemanja 42 3.37 0% PF Sr Georgia
10 Mann, Charles 4 2.06 0% PG Jr Georgia
10 Maten, Yante 1 1.24 0% C Fr Georgia
10 Forte, Cameron 11 1.08 0% C Jr Georgia
10 Parker, Juwan 3 1.00 0% SF So Georgia
10 Echols, Taylor 10 0.85 0% PG Sr Georgia
10 Paul Geno, Kenny 25 0.72 0% SF So Georgia
10 Iduwe, Osahen 15 0.00 0% C Fr Georgia
10 Kessler, Houston 24 0.00 0% C So Georgia
2 Virginia 90.90 Virginia
2 Gill, Anthony 13 7.25 5% PF Jr Virginia
2 Brogdon, Malcolm 15 6.43 3% PG Jr Virginia
2 Anderson, Justin 1 5.28 Hampered 85% SF Jr Virginia
2 Atkins, Darion 5 3.71 0% C Sr Virginia
2 Tobey, Mike 10 3.61 0% C Jr Virginia
2 Perrantes, London 32 3.49 0% SG So Virginia
2 Shayok, Marial 4 2.17 0% SF Fr Virginia
2 Nolte, Evan 11 1.33 0% PF Jr Virginia
2 Hall, Devon 0 1.20 0% PG Fr Virginia
2 Stith, B.J. 2 0.81 0% SG Fr Virginia
2 Wilkins, Isaiah 21 0.67 0% C Fr Virginia
15 Belmont 54.10 Belmont
15 Chamberlain, Reece 22 3.66 0% PG Sr Belmont
15 Bradshaw, Craig 23 3.63 0% SG Jr Belmont
15 Bradds, Evan 35 3.22 0% C So Belmont
15 Barnette, Taylor 20 1.10 0% SF So Belmont
15 Egekeze, Amanze 32 0.93 0% C Fr Belmont
15 Sampson, Burton 21 0.78 0% SG Fr Belmont
15 Smith, Nick 2 0.60 0% PF So Belmont
15 Mercer, Mack 25 0.21 0% PF Fr Belmont
15 Chowbay, Caleb 5 0.00 0% PG So Belmont
15 Hadden, Tyler 41 0.00 0% C So Belmont
15 Laidig, Jeff 43 0.00 0% C Jr Belmont
15 Lester, Josh 31 0.00 0% SF Fr Belmont
15 Luke, Austin 1 0.00 0% SG Fr Belmont
15 Mobley, Holden 4 0.00 0% SF Sr Belmont
15 Turner, Spencer 11 0.00 0% SF Sr Belmont


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