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Midwest Bracket: Kentucky Coronation?

When the No. 1 seed in a bracket already beat the No. 2 seed (Kansas) 72-40 this season, one sees why the top seed plays as such a huge favorite. Two bigger threats to Kentucky than Kansas appear to be Wichita State and Notre Dame, teams who look evenly matched with each other.

Not only is Kentucky easily the best team with a 95 BPI, but the team will likely produce seven NBA players and John Calipari is the only coach besides Tom Izzo that has taken three teams to the Final Four that did not have enough talent to get there.

The table rates each team in the bracket on seven criteria (explained below the table), with a second table showing each player in the bracket, how valuable each player is, who is injured, and the chance that each player makes the NBA. Most important is how good the team is (see ESPN’s BPI here) subtracted by the Value Add of any injured players.

In both tables, teams appear in the same order in which they appear on the bracket.

Seed Midwest Bracket BPI Health Hot NBA Exp guard F4 Coach Top3 Total
1 Kentucky 95 7 3 105
16 Manhattan 52 2 54
16 Hampton 34 -1 2 2 37
8 Cincinnati 73 73
9 Purdue 75 1 2 (1) 77
5 West Virginia 79 -3 1 1 2 (2) 78
12 Buffalo 71 1 72
4 Maryland 78 1 2 1 82
13 Valparaiso 68 -1 1 68
6 Butler 79 -1 2 80
11 Texas 79 2 81
3 Notre Dame 84 1 2 2 1 90
14 Northeastern 58 2 60
7 Wichita St. 83 1 2 2 2 90
10 Indiana 73 -1 2 1 75
2 Kansas 86 -2 -1 3 1 (1) 86
15 New Mexico St. 63 2 65

The most important factor is simply how good a team is based on ESPN’s BPI. Health measures injuries. Hot indicates if the team improved in the closing week. NBA notes how many NBA players the team will likely product. Exp guard shows good seniors or juniors in the backcourt. F4 points out a coach that has made surprising Final Four Runs. Top3 favors teams who rely more on three players who can dominate a game.

The BPI rating is repeated below, followed by how many points each player is worth based on www.valueaddbasketball.com. If a team had a 90 BPI, but a player with a 5.0 Value Add was out injured, then the actual BPI would really be an 85. However, if a team achieved that BPI despite an injury to a key player who is now back at full strength, we note that as well.

Willie Cauley-Stein is back up to the No. 3 player at Value Add after shutting down KT Harrell of Auburn and others. Karl-Anthony Towns is just behind him at No. 6. However, Notre Dame’s Jerian Grant is virtually their equal at No. 6 in running the point for Notre Dame, and will be going up against both of them in the NBA next year.

If Wichita State can get by Kansas and take their shot at Kentucky, then they have two of the top 21 players in Fred VanVleet 12th) and Ron Baker 21st) to take their best shot.

1 Kentucky 95.30 Kentucky
1 Cauley-Stein, Willie 15 10.36 90% C Jr Kentucky
1 Towns, Karl-Anthony 12 9.43 98% PF Fr Kentucky
1 Booker, Devin 1 7.63 73% SG Fr Kentucky
1 Harrison, Aaron 2 7.46 18% SG So Kentucky
1 Harrison, Andrew 5 7.42 31% PG So Kentucky
1 Ulis, Tyler 3 6.62 4% PG Fr Kentucky
1 Lyles, Trey 41 6.46 91% SF Fr Kentucky
1 Johnson, Dakari 44 5.54 48% C So Kentucky
1 Lee, Marcus 0 3.01 41% PF So Kentucky
1 Poythress, Alex 22 1.32 season 43% SF Jr Kentucky
1 Hawkins, Dominique 25 1.20 0% SG So Kentucky
1 Willis, Derek 35 0.95 0% SF So Kentucky
16 Manhattan 51.60 Manhattan
16 Hampton 34.30 Hampton
16 Andujar, Emmy 13 4.45 0% SF Sr Manhattan
16 Richards, Shane 0 3.84 0% SG Jr Manhattan
16 Pankey, Ashton 1 3.43 0% C Jr Manhattan
16 Stores, RaShawn 12 2.84 0% SG Sr Manhattan
16 Powers, Deron 11 2.49 0% PG Jr Hampton
16 Wilson, Tyler 2 1.93 0% PG So Manhattan
16 Brown, Ke’Ron 21 1.86 0% SG Jr Hampton
16 Meikle, Dwight 23 1.66 Quest 0% PF Jr Hampton
16 Darden, Brian 14 1.22 0% SG Jr Hampton
16 Johnson, Reginald 34 1.05 0% SG Jr Hampton
16 Williams, Rich 23 0.99 0% SF So Manhattan
16 Pressley, Jervon 30 0.95 0% SF Jr Hampton
16 Carroll, Keith 1 0.83 0% PG Fr Hampton
16 Lawrence, Jermaine 20 0.50 0% PF So Manhattan
16 Cooks, Lawrence 4 0.46 0% SF So Hampton
16 Crawford, Calvin 14 0.37 0% PF So Manhattan
16 Chievous, Quinton 3 0.28 0% C Sr Hampton
16 Waterman, Zane 4 0.24 0% PF Fr Manhattan
16 Key, Breon 2 0.23 0% UK Jr Hampton
16 Wilson-Fisher, Charle 31 0.01 0% C Fr Hampton
16 Adams, Dionte 32 0.00 0% C Jr Hampton
16 Okoroba, Emmanuel 0 0.00 0% C Hampton
16 Reed, Phillip 33 0.00 0% C So Hampton
16 Allen, Carlton 32 0.00 0% C So Manhattan
16 Glassman, Trevor 30 0.00 0% SG So Manhattan
16 Kates, Donovan 33 0.00 0% PF Sr Manhattan
8 Cincinnati 73.00 Cincinnati
8 Clark, Gary 11 5.89 2% PF Fr Cincinnati
8 Caupain, Troy 10 5.48 1% PG So Cincinnati
8 Ellis, Octavius 2 5.46 1% C Jr Cincinnati
8 Cobb, Farad 22 4.15 0% SG Jr Cincinnati
8 Sanders, Jermaine 15 1.87 0% SF Sr Cincinnati
8 Johnson, Kevin 25 1.63 0% SG So Cincinnati
8 Thomas, Shaquille 3 1.39 0% SF Jr Cincinnati
8 Morman, Deshaun 1 1.10 0% SG Fr Cincinnati
8 DeBerry, Coreontae 22 0.88 0% C Jr Cincinnati
8 Moore, Quadri 0 0.42 0% PF Fr Cincinnati
8 Guyn, Ge’Lawn 14 0.00 season 0% SG Sr Cincinnati
9 Purdue 74.50 Purdue
9 Octeus, Jon 0 5.20 1% PG Sr Purdue
9 Hammons, A.J. 20 3.98 0% C Jr Purdue
9 Davis, Rapheal 35 3.84 0% SG Jr Purdue
9 Edwards, Vince 12 3.11 0% PF Fr Purdue
9 Stephens, Kendall 21 2.06 0% SF So Purdue
9 Mathias, Dakota 31 1.72 0% SG Fr Purdue
9 Scott, Bryson 1 1.63 0% PG So Purdue
9 Thompson, P.J. 3 1.30 0% SG Fr Purdue
9 Smotherman, Basil 5 1.18 0% PF So Purdue
9 Haas, Isaac 44 0.57 0% C Fr Purdue
9 Taylor, Jacquil 23 0.16 0% PF Fr Purdue
5 West Virginia 79.40 West Virginia
5 Carter, Jevon 2 4.12 0% SG Fr West Virginia
5 Staten, Juwan 3 4.07 Quest 22% PG Sr West Virginia
5 Holton, Jonathan 1 3.76 0% PF Jr West Virginia
5 Williams, Devin 5 3.39 0% C So West Virginia
5 Miles, Daxter 4 2.58 0% SF Fr West Virginia
5 Paige, Jaysean 0 2.51 0% SG Jr West Virginia
5 Browne, Gary 14 2.34 Quest 0% SG Sr West Virginia
5 Phillip, Tarik 12 1.64 0% SF So West Virginia
5 Connor, Chase 10 1.28 0% SG So West Virginia
5 Adrian, Nathan 11 0.96 0% PF So West Virginia
5 Watkins, Brandon 20 0.34 0% PF So West Virginia
5 Williams, BillyDee 21 0.17 0% UK Jr West Virginia
5 Macon, Elijah 45 0.11 0% C Fr West Virginia
12 Buffalo 71.30 Buffalo
12 Moss, Justin 23 5.17 1% C Jr Buffalo
12 Evans, Shannon 11 4.65 0% PG So Buffalo
12 Skeete, Jarryn 10 3.23 0% SG Jr Buffalo
12 Ford, Xavier 35 2.54 0% PF Sr Buffalo
12 Bearden, Lamonte 1 1.86 0% SG Fr Buffalo
12 Wigginton, Rodell 20 1.83 0% SF Jr Buffalo
12 Regan, Will 2 1.14 0% PF Sr Buffalo
12 Johnson, Raheem 31 0.62 0% C Jr Buffalo
12 Diane, Mory 5 0.00 season 0% SF Fr Buffalo
4 Maryland 78.20 Maryland
4 Trimble, Melo 2 7.37 59% SG Fr Maryland
4 Layman, Jake 10 5.30 58% PF Jr Maryland
4 Wells, Dez 44 4.35 0% PG Sr Maryland
4 Pack, Richaud 20 2.32 0% SF Sr Maryland
4 Dodd, Damonte 35 1.96 0% C So Maryland
4 Nickens, Jared 11 1.49 0% PF Fr Maryland
4 Smotrycz, Evan 1 1.16 0% PF Sr Maryland
4 Wiley, Dion 5 1.12 0% SG Fr Maryland
4 Graham, Jon 25 0.98 0% PF Sr Maryland
4 Ram, Varum 21 0.93 0% PG Sr Maryland
4 Cekovsky, Michal 15 0.27 0% C Fr Maryland
13 Valparaiso 67.70 Valparaiso
13 Peters, Alec 25 6.72 4% PF So Valparaiso
13 Carter, Keith 0 3.00 0% PG Jr Valparaiso
13 Fernandez, Vashil 14 2.99 0% C Sr Valparaiso
13 Walker, Tevonn 2 2.63 Quest 0% SF Fr Valparaiso
13 Walker, Darien 5 2.58 0% SG Jr Valparaiso
13 Adekoya, Jubril 23 1.17 0% PF So Valparaiso
13 Skara, David 10 1.15 0% SF Fr Valparaiso
13 Victor Nickerson, E. 1 1.05 0% SF Sr Valparaiso
13 Davidson, Nick 22 0.84 0% SG So Valparaiso
13 Chadwick, David 32 0.00 0% C Sr Valparaiso
13 Joseph, Max 3 0.00 0% SG Fr Valparaiso
6 Butler 79.30 Butler
6 Woods, Kameron 31 5.87 2% C Sr Butler
6 Barlow, Alex 3 5.28 1% SG Sr Butler
6 Dunham, Kellen 24 4.76 0% SF Jr Butler
6 Chrabascz, Andrew 45 2.48 Quest 0% PF So Butler
6 Jones, Roosevelt 21 2.38 0% PG Jr Butler
6 Etherington, Austin 0 0.86 0% SF Sr Butler
6 Martin, Kelan 30 0.54 0% PF Fr Butler
6 Wideman, Tyler 4 0.50 0% C Fr Butler
6 Davis, Jackson 13 0.35 0% PF Fr Butler
6 Aldridge, Jackson 11 0.00 0% SG Sr Butler
11 Texas 78.80 Texas
11 Turner, Myles 52 5.49 93% C Fr Texas
11 Holmes, Jonathan 10 4.13 0% PF Sr Texas
11 Lammert, Connor 21 3.48 0% SF Jr Texas
11 Taylor, Isaiah 1 3.41 81% PG So Texas
11 Ridley, Cameron 55 3.14 0% C Jr Texas
11 Holland, Demarcus 2 2.75 0% SG Jr Texas
11 Felix, Javan 3 2.70 0% PG Jr Texas
11 Yancy, Kendal 0 2.60 0% SG So Texas
11 Ibeh, Prince 44 1.22 0% C Jr Texas
11 Barnett, Jordan 33 0.82 0% SF Fr Texas
11 Croaker, Damarcus 5 0.00 0% SF So Texas
3 Notre Dame 84.20 Notre Dame
3 Grant, Jerian 22 9.15 86% PG Sr Notre Dame
3 Jackson, Demetrius 11 6.57 51% SG So Notre Dame
3 Connaughton, Pat 24 5.81 2% PF Sr Notre Dame
3 Auguste, Zach 30 4.15 0% C Jr Notre Dame
3 Vasturia, Steve 32 3.67 0% SF So Notre Dame
3 Colson, Bonzie 35 3.16 0% PF Fr Notre Dame
3 Beachem, V.J. 3 1.99 0% SF So Notre Dame
3 Farrell, Matt 5 0.83 0% PG Fr Notre Dame
3 Torres, Austin 1 0.83 0% PF So Notre Dame
3 Burgett, Austin 20 0.46 0% PF Jr Notre Dame
3 Geben, Martinas 23 0.00 0% C Fr Notre Dame
3 Katenda, Eric 15 0.00 0% C Jr Notre Dame
14 Northeastern 58.40 Northeastern
14 Eatherton, Scott 43 3.27 0% C Sr Northeastern
14 Walker, David 4 3.15 0% SG Jr Northeastern
14 Ford, Quincy 12 1.66 0% PF Jr Northeastern
14 Donnelly, Caleb 15 1.29 0% PG Sr Northeastern
14 Stahl, Zach 33 1.18 0% SF So Northeastern
14 Williams, T.J. 10 1.02 0% PG So Northeastern
14 Begley, Devon 20 0.85 0% PG Fr Northeastern
14 Spencer, Reggie 44 0.39 0% C Sr Northeastern
14 Abakah, Kwesi 34 0.00 0% C So Northeastern
14 Marshall, Jimmy 3 0.00 0% SF So Northeastern
7 Wichita St. 83.30 Wichita St.
7 Van Vleet, Fred 23 8.49 11% PG Jr Wichita St.
7 Baker, Ron 31 7.72 35% SG Jr Wichita St.
7 Cotton, Tekele 32 3.92 0% SF Sr Wichita St.
7 Carter, Darius 12 3.37 0% C Sr Wichita St.
7 Wessel, Evan 3 1.88 0% PF Jr Wichita St.
7 Morris, Shaquille 24 1.39 0% PF Fr Wichita St.
7 Holland, Ria’n 10 1.00 0% PG Fr Wichita St.
7 Brown, Zach 1 0.61 0% PF Fr Wichita St.
7 Glass, Tevin 40 0.56 0% SF Jr Wichita St.
7 Kelly, Rashard 0 0.55 0% PF Fr Wichita St.
7 Wamukota, Bush 21 0.34 0% UK Jr Wichita St.
7 Robert Simon, John 14 0.23 0% UK So Wichita St.
7 Walker, Jared 15 0.17 0% UK Fr Wichita St.
7 Nurger, Rauno 20 0.06 0% C Fr Wichita St.
7 Henderson, Corey 4 0.00 0% SG Fr Wichita St.
10 Indiana 72.90 Indiana
10 Yogi Ferrell, Kevin 11 6.34 3% PG Jr Indiana
10 Williams, Troy 5 4.78 61% PF So Indiana
10 Blackmon, James 1 4.46 27% SF Fr Indiana
10 Zeisloft, Nick 2 2.87 0% SF Jr Indiana
10 Hartman, Collin 30 1.89 0% PF So Indiana
10 Johnson, Robert 4 1.72 0% SG Fr Indiana
10 Holt, Emmitt 25 1.72 0% PF Fr Indiana
10 Mosquera-Perea, Hanner 12 1.21 Quest 0% C Jr Indiana
10 Robinson, Stanford 22 1.07 0% SG So Indiana
10 Burton, Ryan 10 0.87 0% SG Jr Indiana
10 Hoetzel, Max 3 0.12 0% C Fr Indiana
2 Kansas 86.40 Kansas
2 Mason, Frank 0 7.04 5% PG So Kansas
2 Ellis, Perry 34 5.80 52% PF Jr Kansas
2 Oubre, Kelly 12 5.68 94% SF Fr Kansas
2 Selden, Wayne 1 3.24 21% SG So Kansas
2 Alexander, Cliff 2 3.07 Quest 83% C Fr Kansas
2 Greene, Brannen 14 2.93 0% SF So Kansas
2 Graham, Devonte’ 4 2.49 0% SG Fr Kansas
2 Traylor, Jamari 31 2.12 0% PF Jr Kansas
2 Lucas, Landen 33 1.32 0% C So Kansas
2 Mykhailiuk, Sviatoslav 10 0.76 0% SF Fr Kansas
2 Mickelson, Hunter 42 0.63 0% C Jr Kansas
15 New Mexico St. 62.70 New Mexico St.
15 Siakam, Pascal 43 5.55 2% C Fr New Mexico St.
15 Baker, Ian 4 3.83 0% PG So New Mexico St.
15 Mullings, Daniel 23 3.25 0% SF Sr New Mexico St.
15 Barry, Remi 3 2.64 0% PF Sr New Mexico St.
15 Eldridge, D.K. 1 1.41 0% SG Sr New Mexico St.
15 Nephawe, Tshilidzi 15 0.84 0% C Sr New Mexico St.
15 Landry, Travon 0 0.77 0% SG So New Mexico St.
15 Huggins, Braxton 2 0.50 0% SF Fr New Mexico St.
15 Penne, Jalyn 35 0.44 0% PF Fr New Mexico St.
15 Taylor, Matt 5 0.39 0% SF Fr New Mexico St.
15 Bhullar, Tanveer 21 0.37 0% SF Fr New Mexico St.
15 Wilkins, Jonathan 11 0.00 0% C Fr New Mexico St.

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