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South Bracket: Gonzaga Slight Edge Over Duke; Utah, SMU Darkhorses

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Gonzaga has their best shot to make the Final Four, and they are virtually even with Duke as the top two teams in the region.

Two possible surprises are Utah if they can get through a tough opening round game with Stephen F. Austin to give Delon Wright a chance to pull some upsets, and SMU, great since Markus Kennedy became eligible.

The table rates each team in the bracket on seven criteria (explained below the table), with a second table showing each player in the bracket, how valuable each player is, which are injured, and the chance that each player makes the NBA. Most important is how good the team is (see ESPN’s BPI here) subtracted by the Value Add of any injured players.

In both tables, teams appear in the same order in which they appear on the bracket.

Seed South Bracket BPI Health Hot NBA Exp guard F4 Coach Top3 Total
1 Duke 88 3 1 1 93
16 North Florida 56 1 57
16 Robert Morris 47 1 48
8 San Diego St. 73 73
9 St. John’s 72 -4 -1 1 1 1 70
5 Utah 83 -1 2 3 2 89
12 Stephen F. Austin 72 1 1 74
4 Georgetown 80 1 81
13 Eastern Washington 56 3 59
6 SMU 79 3 1 2 1 86
11 UCLA 73 1 2 1 77
3 Iowa St. 83 1 (1) 83
14 UAB 56 1 57
7 Iowa 75 1 1 2 79
10 Davidson 77 1 2 2 82
2 Gonzaga 90 -1 1 4 94
15 North Dakota St. 51 1 2 54

The most important factor is simply how good a team is based on ESPN’s BPI. Health measures injuries. Hot indicates if the team improved in the closing week. NBA points to how many NBA players the team will likely produce. Exp guard notes good seniors or juniors in the backcourt. F4 indicates a coach that has made surprising Final Four Runs. Top3 favors teams who rely more on three players who can dominate a game.

The BPI rating is repeated below, followed by how many points each player is worth based on www.valueaddbasketball.com. If a team had a 90 BPI, but a player with a 5.0 Value Add was out injured, then the actual BPI would really be an 85. However, if a team achieved that BPI despite a key player being injured and now he is back at full strength, we note that as well.

The bracket features two other players in the Top 10 at Value Add with Aaron White of Iowa and D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera of Georgetown.

Seed West Players Rating Status NBA Pos Yr Team
1 Duke 87.80 Duke
1 Jones, Tyus 5 7.35 64% PG Fr Duke
1 Okafor, Jahlil 15 7.32 100% PF Fr Duke
1 Cook, Quinn 2 7.18 5% SG Sr Duke
1 Winslow, Justise 12 5.78 96% SF Fr Duke
1 Jefferson, Amile 21 3.47 0% C Jr Duke
1 Jones, Matt 13 2.69 0% SF So Duke
1 Allen, Grayson 3 2.03 0% SG Fr Duke
1 Sulaimon, Rasheed 14 2.00 0% SG Jr Duke
1 Plumlee, Marshall 40 1.64 0% C Jr Duke
1 Ojeleye, Semi 30 0.26 0% PF So Duke
16 North Florida 56.40 North Florida
16 Nesbitt, Jalen 0 4.33 0% SF Sr North Florida
16 Davenport, Chris 35 3.29 0% SF So North Florida
16 Daniels, Demarcus 32 2.96 0% PF Jr North Florida
16 Moore, Dallas 14 2.78 0% PG So North Florida
16 Mackey, Trent 11 2.41 0% SG Jr North Florida
16 Beech, Beau 2 2.05 0% C Jr North Florida
16 Wilson, Devin 4 0.89 0% PG Sr North Florida
16 Banks, Romelo 33 0.00 0% C So North Florida
16 Bodager, Aaron 12 0.00 0% SG So North Florida
16 Robert Morris 47.30 0% SF Jr Robert Morris
16 Pryor, Rodney 11 5.55 2% SG Jr Robert Morris
16 Reed, Marcquise 2 3.21 0% SG Fr Robert Morris
16 Minnie, Elijah 5 2.43 0% C Fr Robert Morris
16 Jones, Lucky 22 2.22 0% PF Sr Robert Morris
16 Stewart, Kavon 3 1.98 0% PG So Robert Morris
16 Appolon, David 4 0.97 0% SF Sr Robert Morris
16 Tate, Aaron 24 0.60 0% SF Jr Robert Morris
16 Frederick, Andre 33 0.28 0% PF Fr Robert Morris
16 Bennett, Stephan 45 0.00 0% C Jr Robert Morris
16 Gomis, Lionel 1 0.00 0% C Jr Robert Morris
16 Kinsey, Jafar 15 0.00 0% SG Fr Robert Morris
8 San Diego St. 73.30 San Diego St.
8 O’Brien, J.J. 20 5.34 1% SF Sr San Diego St.
8 Quinn, Aqeel 10 4.79 0% SG Sr San Diego St.
8 Spencer, Skylar 0 3.37 0% C Jr San Diego St.
8 Kell, Trey 12 2.25 0% PG Fr San Diego St.
8 Polee, Dwayne 5 2.07 0% SG Sr San Diego St.
8 Shepard, Winston 13 2.04 0% PF Jr San Diego St.
8 Shrigley, Matt 40 1.50 0% SF So San Diego St.
8 Pope, Malik 21 1.38 0% C Fr San Diego St.
8 Williams, D’Erryl 11 1.18 0% PG So San Diego St.
8 Allen, Dakarai 4 1.08 0% PF So San Diego St.
8 Zabo, Kevin 2 1.07 0% PG Fr San Diego St.
8 Chol, Angelo 3 0.83 0% C Jr San Diego St.
9 St. John’s 72.30 St. John’s
9 Pointer, Sir’Dominic 15 8.37 10% PF Sr St. John’s
9 Harrison, D’Angelo 11 5.83 2% SF Sr St. John’s
9 Jordan, Rysheed 23 3.75 28% PG So St. John’s
9 Obekpa, Chris 12 3.65 Susp 19% C Jr St. John’s
9 Greene, Phil 1 3.54 0% SG Sr St. John’s
9 Branch, Jamal 0 2.27 0% SG Sr St. John’s
9 Alibegovic, Amar 14 0.61 0% SF Fr St. John’s
9 Balamou, Felix 24 0.54 0% SF Jr St. John’s
9 Jones, Christian 4 0.15 0% PF So St. John’s
9 De La Rosa, Joey 34 0.11 0% UK Jr St. John’s
9 Stewart, Myles 2 0.09 0% PF Fr St. John’s
5 Utah 83.30 Utah
5 Wright, Delon 55 12.41 82% PG Sr Utah
5 Taylor, Brandon 11 6.21 3% SG Jr Utah
5 Poeltl, Jakob 42 3.97 54% C Fr Utah
5 Loveridge, Jordan 21 3.22 0% SF Jr Utah
5 Tucker, Dakarai 14 2.43 0% SF Jr Utah
5 Chapman, Brekkott 0 2.21 0% PF Fr Utah
5 Reyes, Chris 20 1.71 0% PF So Utah
5 Bachynski, Dallin 31 1.49 0% C Sr Utah
5 Kuzma, Kyle 35 1.23 0% SF Fr Utah
5 Wright, Isaiah 1 1.19 0% PG Fr Utah
5 Ogbe, Kenneth 25 0.97 0% SF So Utah
5 Eastman, Austin 15 0.79 0% SG Sr Utah
5 Olsen, Jeremy 41 0.00 0% C Jr Utah
12 Stephen F. Austin 71.90 Stephen F. Austin
12 Stephen F. Austin 71.90 5% SF Jr Stephen F. Austin
12 Walkup, Thomas 0 7.09 5% SF Jr Stephen F. Austin
12 Parker, Jacob 34 5.66 2% PF Sr Stephen F. Austin
12 Charles, Ty 4 4.10 0% PF Fr Stephen F. Austin
12 Johnson, Jared 3 2.43 0% SG Jr Stephen F. Austin
12 Clayton, Tanner 30 2.00 0% C Sr Stephen F. Austin
12 Geffrard, Clide 11 1.56 0% SF Jr Stephen F. Austin
12 Pinkney, Trey 10 1.45 0% PG Jr Stephen F. Austin
12 Floyd, Demetrious 1 1.41 0% PG Fr Stephen F. Austin
12 Brooks, Connor 31 1.07 0% SG Sr Stephen F. Austin
12 Dotson, Justin 5 0.76 0% SF So Stephen F. Austin
12 Cameron, Dallas 12 0.00 0% SG So Stephen F. Austin
12 Holden, Jaxon 25 0.00 0% SG Fr Stephen F. Austin
12 Johnston, Caleb 33 0.00 0% SF Fr Stephen F. Austin
12 King, Bobby 15 0.00 0% C Sr Stephen F. Austin
4 Georgetown 79.90 Georgetown
4 Smith-Rivera, D’Vauntes 4 8.56 13% PG Jr Georgetown
4 Smith, Joshua 24 4.82 0% C Sr Georgetown
4 Trawick, Jabril 55 4.00 0% SF Sr Georgetown
4 Hopkins, Mikael 3 2.46 0% C Sr Georgetown
4 Copeland, Isaac 11 2.22 0% PF Fr Georgetown
4 Bowen, Aaron 23 2.05 0% PF Sr Georgetown
4 Campbell, Tre 1 2.05 0% SG Fr Georgetown
4 White, Paul 13 2.04 0% SF Fr Georgetown
4 Peak, L.J. 0 1.48 0% SG Fr Georgetown
4 Cameron, Reggie 5 0.00 0% SF So Georgetown
4 Hayes, Bradley 42 0.00 0% C Jr Georgetown
13 Eastern Washington 55.80 Eastern Washington
13 Brandon, Drew 22 4.86 0% PG Sr Eastern Washington
13 Harvey, Tyler 1 4.50 0% SG Jr Eastern Washington
13 Jois, Venky 55 3.49 0% C Jr Eastern Washington
13 Bliznyuk, Bogdan 32 1.99 0% PF Fr Eastern Washington
13 Kelly, Parker 10 1.44 0% SF Sr Eastern Washington
13 Von Hofe, Felix 44 1.08 0% SG So Eastern Washington
13 Washington, Sir 4 0.35 season 0% SF Fr Eastern Washington
13 Reid, Kyle 23 0.12 0% PF Jr Eastern Washington
13 Moon, Garrett 33 0.06 0% PF Sr Eastern Washington
13 Hill, Daniel 2 0.00 0% PG Jr Eastern Washington
13 Jorg, Frederik 21 0.00 0% C So Eastern Washington
13 Miljkovic, Ognjen 0 0.00 0% PF So Eastern Washington
6 SMU 79.20 SMU
6 Moore, Nic 11 5.34 1% PG Jr SMU
6 Kennedy, Markus 5 3.98 PLUS 0% PF Jr SMU
6 Moreira, Yanick 2 3.98 0% C Sr SMU
6 Brown, Sterling 3 3.96 0% SF So SMU
6 Moore, Ben 0 2.40 0% PF So SMU
6 Manuel, Ryan 1 2.35 0% SG Sr SMU
6 Cunningham, Cannen 15 2.19 0% C Sr SMU
6 Frazier, Keith 4 2.01 season 0% SF So SMU
6 Emelogu, Ben 21 1.48 0% SG So SMU
6 Martin, Justin 20 1.06 0% SG Sr SMU
11 UCLA 73.00 UCLA
11 Looney, Kevon 5 6.16 95% PF Fr UCLA
11 Powell, Norman 4 5.56 76% SG Sr UCLA
11 Alford, Bryce 20 4.47 0% PG So UCLA
11 Parker, Tony 23 2.55 0% C Jr UCLA
11 Hamilton, Isaac 10 1.53 0% SF So UCLA
11 Welsh, Thomas 40 1.28 0% C Fr UCLA
11 Goloman, Gyorgy 14 0.48 0% PF Fr UCLA
11 Bail, Wanaah 1 0.06 season 0% PF So UCLA
11 Allen, Noah 22 0.00 0% SF So UCLA
3 Iowa St. 83.30 Iowa St.
3 Morris, Monte 11 8.11 8% PG So Iowa St.
3 Dejean-Jones, Bryce 13 4.53 0% PF Sr Iowa St.
3 Niang, Georges 31 4.42 0% SF Jr Iowa St.
3 McKay, Jameel 1 4.26 0% UK Jr Iowa St.
3 Long, Naz 15 3.87 0% SG Jr Iowa St.
3 Hogue, Dustin 22 2.68 0% C Sr Iowa St.
3 Thomas, Matt 21 1.12 0% SF So Iowa St.
3 Nader, Abdel 2 0.99 0% SF Jr Iowa St.
3 Custer, Clayton 3 0.88 0% PG Fr Iowa St.
3 Dorsey-Walker, Sherron 4 0.70 0% SG So Iowa St.
3 Edozie, Daniel 42 0.47 0% C Sr Iowa St.
3 Jackson, Kourtlin 12 0.38 0% SF Jr Iowa St.
3 Tsalmpouris, Georgios 34 0.00 0% C Fr Iowa St.
14 UAB 56.20 UAB
14 Norton, Nick 2 3.55 0% PG Fr UAB
14 Lee, William 34 3.04 0% PF Fr UAB
14 Cokley, Chris 3 2.26 0% C Fr UAB
14 Brown, Robert 4 2.11 0% SF Jr UAB
14 Madison, Tyler 22 1.48 0% SF So UAB
14 Watts, Denzell 1 1.36 0% PG So UAB
14 Baxter, Hakeem 0 1.25 0% SG Fr UAB
14 Mehinti, Tosin 21 1.02 0% C So UAB
14 Sullivan, Lewis 35 0.74 0% SF Fr UAB
14 Washington, C.J. 25 0.69 0% PF Sr UAB
14 Calhoun, Jarvis 5 0.00 0% SG Fr UAB
7 Iowa 75.40 Iowa
7 White, Aaron 30 9.13 45% PF Sr Iowa
7 Uthoff, Jarrod 20 6.83 4% SF Jr Iowa
7 Olaseni, Gabriel 0 3.60 0% C Sr Iowa
7 Gesell, Mike 10 2.19 0% PG Jr Iowa
7 Clemmons, Anthony 5 1.76 0% SG Jr Iowa
7 Woodbury, Adam 34 1.43 0% C Jr Iowa
7 Jok, Peter 3 1.37 0% SF So Iowa
7 Oglesby, Josh 2 1.05 0% SG Sr Iowa
7 Dickerson, Trey 11 0.94 0% PG So Iowa
7 Ellingson, Brady 24 0.85 0% SG Fr Iowa
7 Uhl, Dom 25 0.42 0% PF Fr Iowa
10 Davidson 76.70 Davidson
10 Kalinoski, Tyler 4 8.15 9% SG Sr Davidson
10 Gibbs, Jack 12 6.03 3% PG So Davidson
10 Barham, Jordan 5 4.94 0% SG Jr Davidson
10 Sullivan, Brian 3 3.88 0% PG Jr Davidson
10 Aldridge, Peyton 23 3.14 0% PF Fr Davidson
10 Watkins, Jordan 2 1.42 0% PG Fr Davidson
10 McAuliffe, Andrew 40 1.11 0% PF So Davidson
10 Ekwu, Nathan 1 0.85 0% PF Fr Davidson
10 Michelson, Oskar 15 0.50 0% PF Fr Davidson
10 Belford, Jake 25 0.38 season 0% PF Jr Davidson
10 Mackay, Ali 22 0.00 0% C Sr Davidson
2 Gonzaga 90.40 Gonzaga
2 Pangos, Kevin 4 7.88 7% PG Sr Gonzaga
2 Wiltjer, Kyle 33 7.69 5% PF Jr Gonzaga
2 Wesley, Byron 22 4.57 0% SF Sr Gonzaga
2 Sabonis, Domantas 11 4.37 71% C Fr Gonzaga
2 Karnowski, Przemek 24 3.86 0% C Jr Gonzaga
2 Bell, Gary 5 3.59 0% SG Sr Gonzaga
2 Dranginis, Kyle 3 2.75 0% SF Jr Gonzaga
2 Melson, Silas 0 1.38 0% SG Fr Gonzaga
2 Perkins, Josh 13 1.16 indef 0% PG Fr Gonzaga
2 Griffin, Connor 14 0.79 0% SG So Gonzaga
2 Nunez, Angel 2 0.58 0% PF Sr Gonzaga
2 McClellan, Eric 21 0.32 0% UK Jr Gonzaga
15 North Dakota St. 50.70 North Dakota St.
15 Alexander, Lawrence 12 3.30 0% SG Sr North Dakota St.
15 Brown, Kory 22 1.59 0% PG Jr North Dakota St.
15 Werner, Dexter 40 1.34 0% C So North Dakota St.
15 Dupree, Carlin 13 1.19 0% PG So North Dakota St.
15 Kading, Chris 34 0.75 0% C Jr North Dakota St.
15 Jacobson, A.J. 21 0.65 0% PF Fr North Dakota St.
15 Showalter, Jake 3 0.49 0% SF Fr North Dakota St.
15 Miller, Paul 2 0.42 0% SF Fr North Dakota St.
15 Ishola, Brian 0 0.05 0% UK Fr North Dakota St.
15 Wessenberg, Evan 32 0.00 0% PF Fr North Dakota St.


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