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NCAA Basketball Top 100: Maryland, Nova, LSU, Kentucky Early Final Four

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The initial Value Add Projections for 2016 have Villanova and LSU as Final Four teams after Trevor Lacey and Bobby Portis announced for the NBA Draft Wednesday. Portis projected as the third-best returning player, but his Arkansas team dropped from 6th to 24th after his announcement.

The database at www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points better a team is with a particular player than without him. As this is posted, the main page still shows the rankings for the past season, but it will be changed out shortly to show the projections and new teams for next year—with the top 100 previewed on the table below:

Rnk College Val Ad Conf Rnk Top Player Value Add Val Ad
1 Villanova 46.76 BE 30 Ochefu, Daniel 23 7.82
2 Maryland 46.01 B10 5 Trimble, Melo 2 10.02
3 Kentucky 45.63 SEC 7 Ulis, Tyler 3 9.17
4 Louisiana St. 44.78 SEC 17 Simmons, Ben 8.50
5 Cincinnati 42.94 Amer 16 Clark, Gary 11 8.59
6 Kansas 42.63 B12 8 Mason, Frank 0 9.16
7 North Carolina 41.45 ACC 12 Paige, Marcus 5 8.81
8 Indiana 40.88 B10 33 Yogi Ferrell, Kevin 11 7.65
9 Texas A&M 40.34 SEC 41 Taylor, Brandon 11 7.36
10 Vanderbilt 39.90 SEC 10 Baldwin, Wade 4 8.92
11 Oregon 39.82 P12 84 Bell, Jordan 1 6.41
12 West Virginia 39.16 B12 88 Carter, Jevon 2 6.29
13 Oregon St. 38.80 P12 1 Payton, Gary 1 11.68
14 Wichita St. 37.87 MAC 4 Van Vleet, Fred 23 10.36
15 Florida 36.54 SEC 124 Finney-Smith, Dorian 10 5.76
16 South Carolina 36.11 SEC 300 Notice, Duane 10 4.24
17 Arizona 35.93 P12 96 Smith, Ray 6.09
18 Virginia 35.60 ACC 18 Gill, Anthony 13 8.46
19 Michigan St. 35.11 B10 39 Valentine, Denzel 45 7.47
20 Baylor 34.23 B12 20 Gathers, Rico 2 8.33
21 Utah St. 32.93 MWC 35 Collette, David 13 7.54
22 Iowa St. 32.89 B12 2 Morris, Monte 11 10.58
23 Southern California 32.88 P12 294 McLaughlin, Jordan 11 4.26
24 Arkansas 32.52 SEC 62 Qualls, Michael 24 6.81
25 Memphis 32.35 Amer 270 Wilson, Damien 4.45
26 Xavier 32.21 BE 113 Bluiett, Trevon 5 5.88
27 Virginia Commonwealth 31.72 A10 142 Alie-Cox, Mo 12 5.55
28 UCLA 31.69 P12 86 Alford, Bryce 20 6.37
29 Gonzaga 31.59 WCC 9 Wiltjer, Kyle 33 9.02
30 Miami FL 31.49 ACC 54 McClellan, Sheldon 10 7.09
31 Florida St. 30.79 ACC 216 Brandon, Montay 32 4.80
32 Davidson 30.64 A10 40 Gibbs, Jack 12 7.41
33 Duke 30.61 ACC 70 Jeter, Chase 6.67
34 Southern Methodist 30.57 Amer 99 Moore, Nic 11 6.03
35 Michigan 30.41 B10 288 Albrecht, Spike 2 4.32
36 Purdue 30.40 B10 134 Edwards, Vince 12 5.71
37 Texas 30.37 B12 298 Taylor, Isaiah 1 4.26
38 Oklahoma St. 30.04 B12 61 Forte, Phil 13 6.84
39 Utah 29.86 P12 56 Poeltl, Jakob 42 6.97
40 Ohio St. 29.83 B10 98 Tate, Jae’Sean 1 6.06
41 UAB 29.67 CUSA 121 Norton, Nick 2 5.79
42 Texas Tech 29.65 B12 182 Smith, Zach 11 5.10
43 Houston 29.14 Amer 69 Thomas, TaShawn 6.68
44 Illinois 28.64 B10 128 Hill, Malcolm 21 5.72
45 Pepperdine 28.46 WCC 93 Davis, Stacy 5 6.16
46 Richmond 28.35 A10 81 Allen, Terry 15 6.43
47 Rhode Island 28.30 A10 14 Martin, Hassan 12 8.65
48 Seton Hall 27.87 BE 68 Delgado, Angel 31 6.69
49 North Carolina St. 27.55 ACC 151 Barber, Anthony 12 5.38
50 Notre Dame 27.54 ACC 102 Auguste, Zach 30 5.96
51 Oklahoma 27.51 B12 44 Spangler, Ryan 0 7.34
52 Texas Christian 27.50 B12 77 Williams, Kenrich 34 6.51
53 Louisville 27.10 ACC 159 Lewis, Trey 3 5.27
54 Syracuse 27.05 ACC 131 Gbinije, Michael 0 5.72
55 Dayton 26.98 A10 154 Pierre, Dyshawn 21 5.36
56 Clemson 26.66 ACC 50 Blossomgame, Jaron 5 7.24
57 Mississippi 26.50 SEC 51 Moody, Stefan 42 7.22
58 Georgia 26.45 SEC 55 Frazier, J.J. 30 7.01
59 Illinois St. 26.39 MVC 148 Lee, Paris 1 5.44
60 Pittsburgh 26.33 ACC 67 Artis, Jamel 1 6.69
61 Stephen F. Austin 26.23 Slnd 19 Walkup, Thomas 0 8.41
62 Valparaiso 26.20 Horz 13 Peters, Alec 25 8.67
63 Vermont 26.14 AE 89 Wills, Dre 24 6.27
64 Northwestern 24.90 B10 223 Olah, Alex 22 4.78
65 Washington 24.81 P12 127 Andrews, Andrew 12 5.73
66 Central Michigan 24.41 MAC 29 Simons, John 34 7.84
67 Iowa 24.39 B10 26 Uthoff, Jarrod 20 7.93
68 San Diego St. 24.27 MWC 280 Kell, Trey 12 4.36
69 Temple 24.16 Amer 328 Bond, Jaylen 15 4.09
70 George Washington 24.08 A10 66 Garino, Patricio 13 6.69
71 Wake Forest 23.94 ACC 262 Moto, Arnaud 4.48
72 Hawaii 23.81 BW 362 Bobbitt, Roderick 5 3.92
73 Nevada Las Vegas 23.72 MWC 167 McCaw, Patrick 2 5.19
74 Marquette 23.62 BE 161 Wilson, Duane 1 5.27
75 Virginia Tech 23.31 ACC 388 Mueller, Malik 1 3.80
76 California 22.91 P12 64 Rabb, Ivan 6.71
77 Tulsa 22.84 Amer 126 Harrison, Shaquille 3 5.73
78 South Dakota St. 22.45 Sum 149 Bittle, Jake 4 5.42
79 Buffalo 22.42 MAC 94 Evans, Shannon 11 6.14
80 Iona 22.27 MAAC 78 Casimir, Schadrac 4 6.50
81 Minnesota 21.98 B10 75 Mason, Nate 2 6.53
82 Georgetown 21.91 BE 318 Copeland, Isaac 11 4.16
83 La Salle 21.81 A10 256 Zack, Steve 0 4.51
84 Stanford 21.55 P12 489 Allen, Marcus 15 3.34
85 Penn St. 21.31 B10 156 Garner, Shep 33 5.35
86 Northern Iowa 21.20 MVC 152 Morgan, Jeremy 20 5.37
87 Akron 20.85 MAC 376 McAdams, Reggie 21 3.85
88 Chattanooga 20.78 SC 248 Pryor, Greg 1 4.59
89 Tennessee 20.73 SEC 213 Moore, Armani 4 4.83
90 Louisiana Tech 20.58 CUSA 224 Hamilton, Alex 0 4.77
91 DePaul 20.46 BE 261 Garrett, Billy 5 4.48
92 Louisiana Lafayette 20.27 SB 146 Long, Shawn 21 5.48
93 Washington St. 20.14 P12 47 Hawkinson, Josh 24 7.26
94 Mississippi St. 20.07 SEC 478 Ready, I.J. 15 3.41
95 Auburn 19.94 SEC 343 Dunans, TJ 4.00
96 Boston University 19.62 Pat 105 Watson, Maurice 5.93
97 Nebraska 19.43 B10 296 Shields, Shavon 31 4.26
98 Boise St. 19.37 MWC 25 Webb, James 23 8.06
99 St. Joseph’s 19.31 A10 37 Bembry, DeAndre 43 7.52
100 Old Dominion 19.29 CUSA 72 Freeman, Trey 20 6.61
107 Mount St. Mary’s 18.74 NEC 395 Graves, Gregory 15 3.78
113 New Mexico St. 17.57 WAC 27 Siakam, Pascal 43 7.87
114 Columbia 17.48 Ivy 45 Lo, Maodo 12 7.30
119 Wisconsin 16.92 BSth 259 Koenig, Bronson 24 4.49
125 Norfolk St. 16.46 MEAC 274 Gaston, RaShid 35 4.43
127 Belmont 16.20 OVC 235 Bradshaw, Craig 23 4.70
128 Montana 16.14 BSky 303 Breunig, Martin 50 4.24
138 North Florida 15.28 ASun 356 Davenport, Chris 35 3.94
141 Hofstra 15.13 CAA 203 Green, Juan’ya 1 4.90
161 Arkansas Pine Bluff 13.84 SWAC 540 Hammond, Tevin 14 3.17

Both Nova and LSU wish Lacey had gone to the NBA a year earlier, as he upset both teams in during March Madness. Lacey drove to the lane and dished out his fourth assist in the closing seconds against LSU, then had four more in the stunning upset of Villanova. He projected to be worth 7.29 points to NC State next season to make them the 21st best team in the country, but his departure drops them to a bubble team at 49th.

The table below shows the top 100 teams plus other projected conference champions.

We wrote that Villanova only had a 10% chance of making the title game in March because they lacked the three Top 100 players it usually takes. This coming season they boast a great combination of Daniel Ochefu underneath (6-foot-11, 30th best with 7.82 Value Add) and incredible three-point shooter Josh Hart (6-foot-5, 31st best and hit first five three-pointers of Big East Tournament and 46% for year). There is a good chance either co-Big East Player of the year Ryan Arcidiacono (109th) or Phil Booth (115th, hit 10 of last 14 three-pointers to finish at 49%) will give them the third Top 100 threat for a run.

Lacey’s other victim, LSU, is coming with big re-enforcements to challenge Kentucky for the SEC this year. Ben Simmons, the top recruit in the country, projects to be a Top 20 player as soon as he steps on the court and makes LSU the only team besides Villanova to have five projected Top 200 players. Kentucky would make a third assuming they sign Malik Newman, Thon Maker Tyler Ulis, Skal Nabissiere, and Isaiah Briscoe.

The projected Final Four was filled out Wednesday when the No. 2 high school player, Diamond Stone, committed to Maryland. Add him to projected 1st team All-American Melo Trimble, who was injured in the tournament loss to West Virginia, and the team that stunned Wisconsin in the regular season has a chance to go all the way.

We have projected the value of 4,092 in the database, but a few of them are players flagged for the NBA or sitting out 2016 as a transfer.

The only group of players we will need to add are the top Junior College players. I traded emails with JUCO master Brad Winton this week, and he is finalizing his rankings that have flagged greats such as Jae Crowder, Delon Wright, and Gary Payton. When Wright came to Utah two years ago they were ranked 108th at www.kenpom.com and he took them to 8th this year. When Payton came to Oregon State last year they were ranked 110th, and the son of “the Glove” by the same name ranks as the No. 1  projected returning player.

There are still nine Top 200 players that will give a team a boost of more than five Value Add points and move them way up this list. By far the best available player is senior transfer Damion Lee (22nd, 8.50 Value Add), and the others are Nigel Williams-Goss, Marcquise Reed, Rasheed Sulaimon, Shonn Miller, Ricky Tarrant, Mark Tollefsen, Mike Thorne, and Nick King.

The ratings of NBA prospects for the upcoming Draft are only provided to clients.


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