NCAA Basketball Top 100: Maryland, Nova, LSU, Kentucky Early Final Four

The initial Value Add Projections for 2016 have Villanova and LSU as Final Four teams after Trevor Lacey and Bobby Portis announced for the NBA Draft Wednesday. Portis projected as the third-best returning player, but his Arkansas team dropped from 6th to 24th after his announcement.

The database at www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points better a team is with a particular player than without him. As this is posted, the main page still shows the rankings for the past season, but it will be changed out shortly to show the projections and new teams for next year—with the top 100 previewed on the table below:

Rnk	College	Val Ad	Conf	Rnk	Top Player Value Add	Val Ad
1	Villanova	46.76	BE	30	Ochefu, Daniel 23	7.82
2	Maryland	46.01	B10	5	Trimble, Melo 2	10.02
3	Kentucky	45.63	SEC	7	Ulis, Tyler 3	9.17
4	Louisiana St.	44.78	SEC	17	Simmons, Ben	8.50
5	Cincinnati	42.94	Amer	16	Clark, Gary 11	8.59
6	Kansas	42.63	B12	8	Mason, Frank 0	9.16
7	North Carolina	41.45	ACC	12	Paige, Marcus 5	8.81
8	Indiana	40.88	B10	33	Yogi Ferrell, Kevin 11	7.65
9	Texas A&M	40.34	SEC	41	Taylor, Brandon 11	7.36
10	Vanderbilt	39.90	SEC	10	Baldwin, Wade 4	8.92
11	Oregon	39.82	P12	84	Bell, Jordan 1	6.41
12	West Virginia	39.16	B12	88	Carter, Jevon 2	6.29
13	Oregon St.	38.80	P12	1	Payton, Gary 1	11.68
14	Wichita St.	37.87	MAC	4	Van Vleet, Fred 23	10.36
15	Florida	36.54	SEC	124	Finney-Smith, Dorian 10	5.76
16	South Carolina	36.11	SEC	300	Notice, Duane 10	4.24
17	Arizona	35.93	P12	96	Smith, Ray	6.09
18	Virginia	35.60	ACC	18	Gill, Anthony 13	8.46
19	Michigan St.	35.11	B10	39	Valentine, Denzel 45	7.47
20	Baylor	34.23	B12	20	Gathers, Rico 2	8.33
21	Utah St.	32.93	MWC	35	Collette, David 13	7.54
22	Iowa St.	32.89	B12	2	Morris, Monte 11	10.58
23	Southern California	32.88	P12	294	McLaughlin, Jordan 11	4.26
24	Arkansas	32.52	SEC	62	Qualls, Michael 24	6.81
25	Memphis	32.35	Amer	270	Wilson, Damien	4.45
26	Xavier	32.21	BE	113	Bluiett, Trevon 5	5.88
27	Virginia Commonwealth	31.72	A10	142	Alie-Cox, Mo 12	5.55
28	UCLA	31.69	P12	86	Alford, Bryce 20	6.37
29	Gonzaga	31.59	WCC	9	Wiltjer, Kyle 33	9.02
30	Miami FL	31.49	ACC	54	McClellan, Sheldon 10	7.09
31	Florida St.	30.79	ACC	216	Brandon, Montay 32	4.80
32	Davidson	30.64	A10	40	Gibbs, Jack 12	7.41
33	Duke	30.61	ACC	70	Jeter, Chase	6.67
34	Southern Methodist	30.57	Amer	99	Moore, Nic 11	6.03
35	Michigan	30.41	B10	288	Albrecht, Spike 2	4.32
36	Purdue	30.40	B10	134	Edwards, Vince 12	5.71
37	Texas	30.37	B12	298	Taylor, Isaiah 1	4.26
38	Oklahoma St.	30.04	B12	61	Forte, Phil 13	6.84
39	Utah	29.86	P12	56	Poeltl, Jakob 42	6.97
40	Ohio St.	29.83	B10	98	Tate, Jae’Sean 1	6.06
41	UAB	29.67	CUSA	121	Norton, Nick 2	5.79
42	Texas Tech	29.65	B12	182	Smith, Zach 11	5.10
43	Houston	29.14	Amer	69	Thomas, TaShawn	6.68
44	Illinois	28.64	B10	128	Hill, Malcolm 21	5.72
45	Pepperdine	28.46	WCC	93	Davis, Stacy 5	6.16
46	Richmond	28.35	A10	81	Allen, Terry 15	6.43
47	Rhode Island	28.30	A10	14	Martin, Hassan 12	8.65
48	Seton Hall	27.87	BE	68	Delgado, Angel 31	6.69
49	North Carolina St.	27.55	ACC	151	Barber, Anthony 12	5.38
50	Notre Dame	27.54	ACC	102	Auguste, Zach 30	5.96
51	Oklahoma	27.51	B12	44	Spangler, Ryan 0	7.34
52	Texas Christian	27.50	B12	77	Williams, Kenrich 34	6.51
53	Louisville	27.10	ACC	159	Lewis, Trey 3	5.27
54	Syracuse	27.05	ACC	131	Gbinije, Michael 0	5.72
55	Dayton	26.98	A10	154	Pierre, Dyshawn 21	5.36
56	Clemson	26.66	ACC	50	Blossomgame, Jaron 5	7.24
57	Mississippi	26.50	SEC	51	Moody, Stefan 42	7.22
58	Georgia	26.45	SEC	55	Frazier, J.J. 30	7.01
59	Illinois St.	26.39	MVC	148	Lee, Paris 1	5.44
60	Pittsburgh	26.33	ACC	67	Artis, Jamel 1	6.69
61	Stephen F. Austin	26.23	Slnd	19	Walkup, Thomas 0	8.41
62	Valparaiso	26.20	Horz	13	Peters, Alec 25	8.67
63	Vermont	26.14	AE	89	Wills, Dre 24	6.27
64	Northwestern	24.90	B10	223	Olah, Alex 22	4.78
65	Washington	24.81	P12	127	Andrews, Andrew 12	5.73
66	Central Michigan	24.41	MAC	29	Simons, John 34	7.84
67	Iowa	24.39	B10	26	Uthoff, Jarrod 20	7.93
68	San Diego St.	24.27	MWC	280	Kell, Trey 12	4.36
69	Temple	24.16	Amer	328	Bond, Jaylen 15	4.09
70	George Washington	24.08	A10	66	Garino, Patricio 13	6.69
71	Wake Forest	23.94	ACC	262	Moto, Arnaud	4.48
72	Hawaii	23.81	BW	362	Bobbitt, Roderick 5	3.92
73	Nevada Las Vegas	23.72	MWC	167	McCaw, Patrick 2	5.19
74	Marquette	23.62	BE	161	Wilson, Duane 1	5.27
75	Virginia Tech	23.31	ACC	388	Mueller, Malik 1	3.80
76	California	22.91	P12	64	Rabb, Ivan	6.71
77	Tulsa	22.84	Amer	126	Harrison, Shaquille 3	5.73
78	South Dakota St.	22.45	Sum	149	Bittle, Jake 4	5.42
79	Buffalo	22.42	MAC	94	Evans, Shannon 11	6.14
80	Iona	22.27	MAAC	78	Casimir, Schadrac 4	6.50
81	Minnesota	21.98	B10	75	Mason, Nate 2	6.53
82	Georgetown	21.91	BE	318	Copeland, Isaac 11	4.16
83	La Salle	21.81	A10	256	Zack, Steve 0	4.51
84	Stanford	21.55	P12	489	Allen, Marcus 15	3.34
85	Penn St.	21.31	B10	156	Garner, Shep 33	5.35
86	Northern Iowa	21.20	MVC	152	Morgan, Jeremy 20	5.37
87	Akron	20.85	MAC	376	McAdams, Reggie 21	3.85
88	Chattanooga	20.78	SC	248	Pryor, Greg 1	4.59
89	Tennessee	20.73	SEC	213	Moore, Armani 4	4.83
90	Louisiana Tech	20.58	CUSA	224	Hamilton, Alex 0	4.77
91	DePaul	20.46	BE	261	Garrett, Billy 5	4.48
92	Louisiana Lafayette	20.27	SB	146	Long, Shawn 21	5.48
93	Washington St.	20.14	P12	47	Hawkinson, Josh 24	7.26
94	Mississippi St.	20.07	SEC	478	Ready, I.J. 15	3.41
95	Auburn	19.94	SEC	343	Dunans, TJ	4.00
96	Boston University	19.62	Pat	105	Watson, Maurice	5.93
97	Nebraska	19.43	B10	296	Shields, Shavon 31	4.26
98	Boise St.	19.37	MWC	25	Webb, James 23	8.06
99	St. Joseph’s	19.31	A10	37	Bembry, DeAndre 43	7.52
100	Old Dominion	19.29	CUSA	72	Freeman, Trey 20	6.61
107	Mount St. Mary’s	18.74	NEC	395	Graves, Gregory 15	3.78
113	New Mexico St.	17.57	WAC	27	Siakam, Pascal 43	7.87
114	Columbia	17.48	Ivy	45	Lo, Maodo 12	7.30
119	Wisconsin	16.92	BSth	259	Koenig, Bronson 24	4.49
125	Norfolk St.	16.46	MEAC	274	Gaston, RaShid 35	4.43
127	Belmont	16.20	OVC	235	Bradshaw, Craig 23	4.70
128	Montana	16.14	BSky	303	Breunig, Martin 50	4.24
138	North Florida	15.28	ASun	356	Davenport, Chris 35	3.94
141	Hofstra	15.13	CAA	203	Green, Juan’ya 1	4.90
161	Arkansas Pine Bluff	13.84	SWAC	540	Hammond, Tevin 14	3.17

Both Nova and LSU wish Lacey had gone to the NBA a year earlier, as he upset both teams in during March Madness. Lacey drove to the lane and dished out his fourth assist in the closing seconds against LSU, then had four more in the stunning upset of Villanova. He projected to be worth 7.29 points to NC State next season to make them the 21st best team in the country, but his departure drops them to a bubble team at 49th.

The table below shows the top 100 teams plus other projected conference champions.

We wrote that Villanova only had a 10% chance of making the title game in March because they lacked the three Top 100 players it usually takes. This coming season they boast a great combination of Daniel Ochefu underneath (6-foot-11, 30th best with 7.82 Value Add) and incredible three-point shooter Josh Hart (6-foot-5, 31st best and hit first five three-pointers of Big East Tournament and 46% for year). There is a good chance either co-Big East Player of the year Ryan Arcidiacono (109th) or Phil Booth (115th, hit 10 of last 14 three-pointers to finish at 49%) will give them the third Top 100 threat for a run.

Lacey’s other victim, LSU, is coming with big re-enforcements to challenge Kentucky for the SEC this year. Ben Simmons, the top recruit in the country, projects to be a Top 20 player as soon as he steps on the court and makes LSU the only team besides Villanova to have five projected Top 200 players. Kentucky would make a third assuming they sign Malik Newman, Thon Maker Tyler Ulis, Skal Nabissiere, and Isaiah Briscoe.

The projected Final Four was filled out Wednesday when the No. 2 high school player, Diamond Stone, committed to Maryland. Add him to projected 1st team All-American Melo Trimble, who was injured in the tournament loss to West Virginia, and the team that stunned Wisconsin in the regular season has a chance to go all the way.

We have projected the value of 4,092 in the database, but a few of them are players flagged for the NBA or sitting out 2016 as a transfer.

The only group of players we will need to add are the top Junior College players. I traded emails with JUCO master Brad Winton this week, and he is finalizing his rankings that have flagged greats such as Jae Crowder, Delon Wright, and Gary Payton. When Wright came to Utah two years ago they were ranked 108th at www.kenpom.com and he took them to 8th this year. When Payton came to Oregon State last year they were ranked 110th, and the son of “the Glove” by the same name ranks as the No. 1  projected returning player.

There are still nine Top 200 players that will give a team a boost of more than five Value Add points and move them way up this list. By far the best available player is senior transfer Damion Lee (22nd, 8.50 Value Add), and the others are Nigel Williams-Goss, Marcquise Reed, Rasheed Sulaimon, Shonn Miller, Ricky Tarrant, Mark Tollefsen, Mike Thorne, and Nick King.

The ratings of NBA prospects for the upcoming Draft are only provided to clients.