Until Arizona’s Stanley Johnson opted for the NBA Thursday night, colleges were on a roll with stars picking the over the NBA or even instead of staying in high school.
The following is an update on the biggest 20 decisions and how many spots each decision would move the college in the 2016 projections on the just updated www.valueaddbasketball.com.
|Rnk||Player||Choice||Ht||Value Add||Impact team rating|
|1||Smith-Rivera, D’Vauntes 4||Georgetown>NBA||6’3||9.68||88th to 38th|
|2||Dunn, Kris 3||Providence||6’3||9.6||NR to 69th|
|3||Wiltjer, Kyle 33||Gonzaga>NBA||6’10||9.02||83rd to 37th|
|4||Hield, Buddy 24||Oklahoma vs. NBA||6’4||8.52||17th to 48th|
|5||Johnson, Stanley 5||NBA||6’6||8.43||1st to 7th|
|6||Lee, Damion 14||Louisville||6’6||8.13||58th to 22nd|
|7||Newman, Malik||Mississippi St.>KY||6’3||8.1||95th to 53rd|
|8||Ferrell, Yogi 11||Indiana vs. NBA SAT||6’0||7.65||10th or 25th|
|9||Maker, Thon||Kentucky/maybe||7’0||7.52||1st to 46th based on 3|
|10||Poeltl, Jakob 42||Utah||7’0||6.97||80th to 47th|
|11||Thornton, Derryck||Duke>High School||6’1″||6.03||36th to 16th|
|12||Auguste, Zach 30||Notre Dame v. NBA||6’10||5.96||57th to 86th|
|13||Miller, Shonn||Connecticut>CT,IL,BC,Mich,Marq||6’7||5.6||NR to 87th|
|14||LeVert, Caris 23||Michigan>NBA||6’7||5.6||59th to 31st|
|15||Tollefsen, Mark 23||Arizona v. CA,SDSt.,WA,NV,TN||6’9||5.5||7th to 19th|
|16||Thorne, Mike 12||Illinois>Pitt,KS,KY||6’11||5.4||47th to 25th|
|17||Mulder, Mychal||Kentucky/maybe||6’4||5||1st to 46th based on 3|
|18||Hammons, A.J. 20||Purdue||7’0||4.99||67th to 44th|
|19||Murray, Jamal||Kentucky/maybe>high school||6’3″||4.9||1st to 46th based on 3|
|20||Wallace, Tyrone 3||California>NBA||6’5||3.68||NR to 81st|
Arizona dropped from 1st to 7th with Johnson’s announcement, and would drop all the way to 19th if they do not land Mark Tollefsen (15th on table).
Kentucky lost out to Mississippi State on Malik Newman (#7 on table), and could be projected to go anywhere from 1st to 46th based on three players on the table they need to get (see #9, 17 and 19). That includes getting Jamal Murray and hoping he can graduate high school early to join the team next year just as Derryck Thornton did for Duke to get them up to 16th with more signings expected.
The biggest remaining decisions are from Indiana’s Yogi Ferrell, who could keep Indiana at 10th, and Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield, who could keep Oklahoma at 17th, if each forgo the draft.
The biggest senior graduate transfer (can play immediately) was Damion Lee, who moves Louisville all the way from 58th up to 22nd, while Shonn Miller at least put UConn back in the top 100 as they expect additional help to move up further.
Because Value Add calculates exactly how many points each player is worth over a replacement player, each team’s ranking can be adjusted every time a new player decides to come or leave. The 2016 values are calculated based on how much players typically improve from one season to the next, and includes all incoming freshman, transfers and returnees.