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Pac-12’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Weekend

Texas A&M ran No. 15 Arizona State off a neutral field as the Pac-12 imploded this weekend.

The conference projected to go 10-2 instead went 7-5 with stunning losses to Hawaii, Northwestern, and non-FBS Portland State to fall to a distant fifth in the conference rankings.

Here’s how this weekend’s play impacted the conferences:

1. SEC improves from +15 to +16 points better than average FBS team

2. Big 12 stays at +9

3. Big 10 stays at +7

4. ACC stays at +7

5. Pac-12 drops from +11 to +3 after registering four of the six worst losses of Week 1

(See separate post for five non-Power Conferences).

Rnk Conf Biggest Disappoinments Chance Final Final All Sqrt Exceed Opponent
1 Pac 12 +11 Washington St (home) 97% 17 24 -2.6 -7.9 Portland St
2 Mt West -6 Wyoming (home) 91% 13 24 -3.3 -7.9 North Dakota
3 Pac 12 +11 Stanford 83% 6 16 -3.2 -6.9 Northwestern (home)
4 Big Ten +7 Penn St 70% 10 27 -4.1 -6.8 Temple (home)
5 Pac 12 +11 Arizona St (neutral) 52% 17 38 -4.6 -5.6 Texas A&M
6 Pac 12 +11 Colorado 66% 20 28 -2.8 -5.3 Hawaii (home)
7 Amer -7 UCF (home) 86% 14 15 -1.0 -5.1 Florida Intl
8 Big Ten +7 Nebraska (home) 72% 28 33 -2.2 -4.9 BYU
9 SunB -14 Georgia St (home) 67% 20 23 -1.7 -4.4 Charlotte
10 Big 12 +9 Texas 39% 3 38 -5.9 -3.9 Notre Dame (home)

The “Exceed” number calculates how much better or worse a team did than expected after comparing the square root of the victory margin or defeat against the predicted result at www.masseyratings.com.

The SEC more than backed up the preseason ranking of playing +15 points better than the average FBS team. The conference went 12-1 to top the 10.8 projected wins and rank highest in most games won by more than expected (a positive exceed number), including Alabama beating No. 20 Wisconsin of the Big Ten on a neutral field.

The Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 all experienced a combination of good and bad showings, but on the whole justified their ratings of between +7 and +9—about a touchdown worse than the SEC but substantially better than the Pac-12’s performance.

The conference ratings on the score board feature the preseason ratings:

Conf Team (Away unless noted) Chance Final Final All Sqrt Exceed Opponent
ACC +7 Boston College (home) 99% 24 3 4.6 -1.0 Maine
ACC +7 Clemson (home) 100% 49 10 6.2 -0.1 Wofford
ACC +7 Duke 87% 37 7 5.5 1.4 Tulane (home)
ACC +7 Florida St (home) 97% 56 16 6.3 0.9 Texas St
ACC +7 Georgia Tech (home) 100% 69 6 7.9 1.2 Alcorn St
ACC +7 Louisville (neutral) 32% 24 31 -2.6 0.0 Auburn
ACC +7 Miami FL (home) 100% 45 0 6.7 0.7 Bethune-Cookman
ACC +7 NC State (home) 91% 49 21 5.3 0.7 Troy
ACC +7 North Carolina 28% 13 17 -2.0 0.6 South Carolina (neutral)
ACC +7 Pittsburgh (home) 83% 45 37 2.8 -1.0 Youngstown St
ACC +7 Syracuse (home) 100% 47 0 6.9 1.0 Rhode Island
ACC +7 Virginia 20% 16 34 -4.2 -0.6 UCLA (home)
ACC +7 Virginia Tech (home-Monday) 15% 0.0 Ohio St
ACC +7 Wake Forest (home) 97% 41 3 6.2 0.9 Elon
Expected 10.5 W, went 10-3, 1 10.5 4.7
Big 12 +9 Baylor 99% 56 21 5.9 0.1 SMU (home)
Big 12 +9 Iowa St (home) 55% 31 7 4.9 3.2 Northern Iowa
Big 12 +9 Kansas (home) 59% 38 41 -1.7 -3.5 S Dakota St
Big 12 +9 Kansas St (home) 100% 34 0 5.8 -0.3 South Dakota
Big 12 +9 Oklahoma (home) 98% 41 3 6.2 0.7 Akron
Big 12 +9 Oklahoma St 81% 24 13 3.3 -0.4 C Michigan (home)
Big 12 +9 TCU 80% 23 17 2.4 -1.2 Minnesota (home)
Big 12 +9 Texas 39% 3 38 -5.9 -3.9 Notre Dame (home)
Big 12 +9 Texas Tech (home) 83% 59 45 3.7 0.0 Sam Houston St
Big 12 +9 West Virginia (home) 86% 44 0 6.6 2.5 Ga Southern
Expected 7.8 W, went 8-2 7.8 -2.8
Big Ten +7 Illinois (home) 87% 52 3 7.0 2.9 Kent
Big Ten +7 Indiana (home) 76% 48 47 1.0 -2.2 S Illinois
Big Ten +7 Iowa (home) 65% 31 14 4.1 1.7 Illinois St
Big Ten +7 Maryland (home) 94% 50 21 5.4 0.5 Richmond
Big Ten +7 Michigan 25% 17 24 -2.6 0.5 Utah (home)
Big Ten +7 Michigan St 95% 37 24 3.6 -1.5 W Michigan (home)
Big Ten +7 Minnesota (home) 20% 17 23 -2.4 1.2 TCU
Big Ten +7 Nebraska (home) 72% 28 33 -2.2 -4.9 BYU
Big Ten +7 Northwestern (home) 17% 16 6 3.2 6.9 Stanford
Big Ten +7 Ohio St- Monday 85% 0.0 Virginia Tech (home)
Big Ten +7 Penn St 70% 10 27 -4.1 -6.8 Temple (home)
Big Ten +7 Purdue-Sunday 18% 0.0 Marshall (home)
Big Ten +7 Rutgers (home) 100% 63 13 7.1 1.0 Norfolk St
Big Ten +7 Wisconsin (neutral) 23% 17 35 -4.2 -0.9 Alabama
Expected 8.5 W, went 7-5, 2 left 8.5 -1.6
Pac 12 +11 Arizona (home) 95% 42 32 3.2 -1.8 UT San Antonio
Pac 12 +11 Arizona St (neutral) 52% 17 38 -4.6 -5.6 Texas A&M
Pac 12 +11 California (home) 100% 73 14 7.7 1.3 Grambling
Pac 12 +11 Colorado 66% 20 28 -2.8 -5.3 Hawaii (home)
Pac 12 +11 Oregon (home) 99% 61 42 4.4 -1.4 E Washington
Pac 12 +11 Oregon St (home) 98% 26 7 4.4 -1.2 Weber St
Pac 12 +11 Stanford 83% 6 16 -3.2 -6.9 Northwestern (home)
Pac 12 +11 UCLA (home) 80% 34 16 4.2 0.6 Virginia
Pac 12 +11 USC (home) 94% 0.0 Arkansas St
Pac 12 +11 Utah (home) 75% 24 17 2.6 -0.5 Michigan
Pac 12 +11 Washington 46% 13 16 -1.7 0.0 Boise St (home)
Pac 12 +11 Washington St (home) 97% 17 24 -2.6 -7.9 Portland St
Expected 9.9 wins, went 6-5, 1 left 9.9 -28.7
SEC +15 Alabama 77% 35 17 4.2 0.9 Wisconsin (neutral)
SEC +15 Arkansas (home) 98% 48 13 5.9 0.4 UTEP
SEC +15 Auburn 68% 31 24 2.6 0.0 Louisville (neutral)
SEC +15 Florida (home) 99% 61 13 6.9 1.0 New Mexico St
SEC +15 Georgia (home) 99% 51 14 6.1 0.2 ULM
SEC +15 Kentucky (home) 76% 40 33 2.6 -0.5 ULL
SEC +15 LSU (home) 0% 0.0 Cancelled
SEC +15 Mississippi (home) 100% 76 3 8.5 2.2 TN Martin
SEC +15 Mississippi St 97% 0.0 Southern Miss (home)
SEC +15 Missouri (home) 100% 34 3 5.6 -1.1 SE Missouri St
SEC +15 South Carolina (neutral) 72% 17 13 2.0 -0.6 North Carolina
SEC +15 Tennessee 92% 59 30 5.4 0.7 Bowling Green (neutral)
SEC +15 Texas A&M 48% 38 17 4.6 5.6 Arizona St (neutral)
SEC +15 Vanderbilt (home) 51% 12 14 -1.4 -2.4 W Kentucky
Expected 10.8 wins, went 11-1, 1 left 11.8 6.4

 

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