UCLA-Arizona, Utah-Oregon Highlight Saturday Schedule

Unless West Virginia suffers a major upset to Maryland, the Big 12 likely stays in 1st place (+11 above average) until season finales.

Few meaningful inter-conference games remain for the Pac-12 and SEC (tied in 2nd at +10). The ACC (+8) and Big Ten (+7) could move up or down from 4th and 5th with many big games, and the American Athletic (+0, 6th) could surge if East Carolina and Central Florida can pull upsets of Power 5 teams.

The Sun Belt (-8, 8th) can only catch the Mid-American (-6, 7th) if UTSA and ODU manage upsets and Northern Illinois and Bowling Green do not. The Mountain West (-13, 9th) must break their fall with a Boise State win over Virginia, or they may fall to last behind the Sun Belt (-14, 10th).

This is the last week of the big scoreboard, as conference play takes over next week.

ACC Plays 6 FBS Conferences

The ACC nudged one point ahead of the Big Ten to rank as the 4th best conference, and this week marks their last chance to move up or drop back behind the Big Ten. Wake Forest pulling a minor upset over Indiana may be needed to hold off the Big Ten. Virginia is a toss-up against Boise State of the Mountain West and Virginia Tech is a light favorite over East Carolina. The Conference will go up or down based on if they are better or worse than their projected 6-4 record and +55 margin overall. But with three non-conference games projected to be within a field goal, this is a final test before conference play takes over.

Team Conference Adj Pwin Time Opponent Opp Conf
Boston College ACC +8 3 57% 1:00pm ET N Illinois Mid-Am -6
Clemson ACC +8 0% Idle
Duke ACC +8 -7 28% 12:00pm ET Georgia Tech ACC +8
Florida St ACC +8 0% Idle
Georgia Tech ACC +8 7 72% 12:00pm ET Duke ACC +8
Louisville ACC +8 28 97% 6:00pm ET Samford
Miami FL ACC +8 0% Idle
NC State ACC +8 11 77% 8:00pm ET South Alabama SunB -14
North Carolina ACC +8 31 99% 12:30pm ET Delaware FCS
Pittsburgh ACC +8 0% Idle
Syracuse ACC +8 -18 11% 12:00pm ET LSU SEC +10
Virginia ACC +8 0 50% Fri 09.25 Boise St Mt West -13
Virginia Tech ACC +8 3 60% 3:30pm ET East Carolina Amer +0
Wake Forest ACC +8 -3 43% 12:30pm ET Indiana Big Ten +8
6-4, +55 points 55 5.9 ACC Proj

American Athletic: Chances to Continue Surge vs. ACC and SEC

If East Carolina and Central Florida upset Virginia Tech of the ACC and South Carolina of the SEC, the American Athletic would enjoy a lot of steam heading into conference play. Memphis appeared to replace Cincinnati as the best non-Power 5 team, and they proved it Thursday by beating the Bearcats 53-46.

Team Conference Adj Pwin Time Opponent Opp Conf
Cincinnati Amer +0 -8 33% Thu 09.24 Memphis Amer +0
Connecticut Amer +0 -11 23% 12:00pm ET Navy Amer +0
East Carolina Amer +0 -3 40% 3:30pm ET Virginia Tech ACC +8
Houston Amer +0 17 84% 8:00pm ET Texas St SunB -14
Memphis Amer +0 8 67% Thu 09.24 Cincinnati Amer +0
Navy Amer +0 11 77% 12:00pm ET Connecticut Amer +0
SMU Amer +0 9 68% 7:00pm ET James Madison FCS
South Florida Amer +0 0% Idle
Temple Amer +0 0% Idle
Tulane Amer +0 0% Idle
Tulsa Amer +0 0% Idle
UCF Amer +0 -7 35% 12:00pm ET South Carolina SEC +10
4-4, +16 points 16 4.3 Amer Proj

 

Big 12: Lowly Kansas Could Cement Conference as No. 1

The Big 12 beat the SEC in big games consecutive weeks to move into No. 1, and a Kansas upset of Rutgers could cement the conference as the best top to bottom. This assumes West Virginia does not stumble against Maryland.

Team Conference Adj Pwin Time Opponent Opp Conf
Baylor Big 12 +11 28 97% 3:00pm ET Rice CUSA – 8
Iowa St Big 12 +11 0% Idle
Kansas Big 12 +11 -4 40% 12:00pm ET Rutgers Big Ten +8
Kansas St Big 12 +11 0% Idle
Oklahoma Big 12 +11 0% Idle
Oklahoma St Big 12 +11 1 51% 3:30pm ET Texas Big 12 +11
TCU Big 12 +11 10 78% 4:45pm ET Texas Tech Big 12 +11
Texas Big 12 +11 -1 49% 3:30pm ET Oklahoma St Big 12 +11
Texas Tech Big 12 +11 -10 22% 4:45pm ET TCU Big 12 +11
West Virginia Big 12 +11 16 82% 3:00pm ET Maryland Big Ten +8
4-3, +40 points 40 4.2 Big 12 Proj

 

Big Ten takes on 5 Conferences and BYU

The Big Ten takes on five other conferences and a tough independent test against BYU. Overall the conference projects to go 10-4 with an 187-point margin of victory, but there are four big games expected to come down to four points either way. So they could shoot way up or drop down based on those four games.

Team Conference Adj Pwin Time Opponent Opp Conf
Illinois Big Ten +7 12 76% 4:00pm ET MTSU CUSA – 8
Indiana Big Ten +7 3 57% 12:30pm ET Wake Forest ACC +8
Iowa Big Ten +7 31 99% 3:30pm ET North Texas CUSA – 8
Maryland Big Ten +7 -16 18% 3:00pm ET West Virginia Big 12 +11
Michigan Big Ten +7 -2 47% 12:00pm ET BYU ind +0
Michigan St Big Ten +7 25 95% 12:00pm ET C Michigan Mid-Am -6
Minnesota Big Ten +7 9 68% 3:30pm ET Ohio Mid-Am -6
Nebraska Big Ten +7 27 96% 12:00pm ET Southern Miss CUSA – 8
Northwestern Big Ten +7 21 94% 8:00pm ET Ball St Mid-Am -6
Ohio St Big Ten +7 28 97% 3:30pm ET W Michigan Mid-Am -6
Penn St Big Ten +7 17 87% 3:30pm ET San Diego St Mt West -13
Purdue Big Ten +7 -2 47% 12:00pm ET Bowling Green Mid-Am -6
Rutgers Big Ten +7 4 60% 12:00pm ET Kansas Big 12 +11
Wisconsin Big Ten +7 30 98% 8:00pm ET Hawaii Mt West -13
10-4, +187 points 187 10.4 Big Ten Proj

 

Conference USA Hope UTSA or ODU Can Pull Upsets

Conference USA started hot, but cooled off, but UTSA and ODU touchdown underdogs who could move the conference up with upsets.

Team Conference Adj Pwin Time Opponent Opp Conf
Charlotte CUSA – 8 -6 33% 7:00pm ET FL Atlantic CUSA – 8
FL Atlantic CUSA – 8 6 67% 7:00pm ET Charlotte CUSA – 8
Florida Intl CUSA – 8 -18 12% 2:30pm ET Louisiana Tech CUSA – 8
Louisiana Tech CUSA – 8 18 88% 2:30pm ET Florida Intl CUSA – 8
Marshall CUSA – 8 9 75% 3:30pm ET Kent Mid-Am -6
MTSU CUSA – 8 -12 24% 4:00pm ET Illinois Big Ten +8
North Texas CUSA – 8 -31 1% 3:30pm ET Iowa Big Ten +8
Old Dominion CUSA – 8 -8 27% 3:30pm ET Appalachian St SunB -14
Rice CUSA – 8 -28 3% 3:00pm ET Baylor Big 12 +11
Southern Miss CUSA – 8 -27 4% 12:00pm ET Nebraska Big Ten +8
UT San Antonio CUSA – 8 -7 31% 7:00pm ET Colorado St Mt West -13
UTEP CUSA – 8 31 99% 8:00pm ET Incarnate Word FCS
W Kentucky CUSA – 8 9 68% 3:30pm ET Miami OH Mid-Am -6
5-8, -64 points (64) 5.3 CUSA Proj

 

Independents and FCS

The teams not in FBS Conferences include national contender Notre Dame, a very good BYU team, and solid Idaho State and James Madison teams capable of upsets this week.

Team Conference Adj Pwin Time Opponent Opp Conf
Army ind +0 1 52% 6:00pm ET E Michigan Mid-Am -6
BYU ind +0 2 53% 12:00pm ET Michigan Big Ten +8
Delaware FCS -31 1% 12:30pm ET North Carolina ACC +8
Idaho St FCS 0 50% 9:00pm ET UNLV Mt West -13
Incarnate Word FCS -31 1% 8:00pm ET UTEP CUSA – 8
James Madison FCS -9 32% 7:00pm ET SMU Amer +0
Nicholls St FCS -49 0% 1:30pm ET Colorado Pac 12 +10
Notre Dame Ind +0 29 98% 3:30pm ET Massachusetts Mid-Am -6
Samford FCS -28 3% 6:00pm ET Louisville ACC +8
Southern Univ FCS -53 0% 12:00pm ET Georgia SEC +10

 

Mid-American: Bowling Green and Northern Illinois Shots at Upsets

Northern Illinois showed why an 8-team playoff including one non-Power 5 team is needed. Northern Illinois came close to upsetting No. 1 Ohio State in a game that would have been a perfect opening round. They have a chance for a win over the ACC when they take on Boston College, and Bowling Green can get a win over the Big Ten and Purdue.

Team Conference Adj Pwin Time Opponent Opp Conf
Akron Mid-Am -6 -10 27% 7:00pm ET ULL SunB -14
Ball St Mid-Am -6 -21 6% 8:00pm ET Northwestern Big Ten +8
Bowling Green Mid-Am -6 2 53% 12:00pm ET Purdue Big Ten +8
Buffalo Mid-Am -6 8 67% 3:30pm ET Nevada Mt West -13
C Michigan Mid-Am -6 -25 5% 12:00pm ET Michigan St Big Ten +8
E Michigan Mid-Am -6 -1 48% 6:00pm ET Army ind +0
Kent Mid-Am -6 -9 25% 3:30pm ET Marshall CUSA – 8
Massachusetts Mid-Am -6 -29 2% 3:30pm ET Notre Dame Ind +0
Miami OH Mid-Am -6 -9 32% 3:30pm ET W Kentucky CUSA – 8
N Illinois Mid-Am -6 -3 43% 1:00pm ET Boston College ACC +8
Ohio Mid-Am -6 -9 32% 3:30pm ET Minnesota Big Ten +8
Toledo Mid-Am -6 11 75% 7:00pm ET Arkansas St SunB -14
W Michigan Mid-Am -6 -28 3% 3:30pm ET Ohio St Big Ten +8
4-9, -123 Points (123) 4.2 Mid-Am Proj

 

Mountain West: Struggling Conference Needs Boise State Win

The Mountain West won only three games total the last two weeks, with only Air Force, Boise State, and Hawaii playing well. The conference desperately needs Boise State to beat Virginia and cannot suffer a Colorado upset to UTSA.

Team Conference Adj Pwin Time Opponent Opp Conf
Air Force Mt West -13 0% Idle
Boise St Mt West -13 0 50% Fri 09.25 Virginia ACC +8
Colorado St Mt West -13 7 69% 7:00pm ET UT San Antonio CUSA – 8
Fresno St Mt West -13 1 52% 10:30pm ET San Jose St Mt West -13
Hawaii Mt West -13 -30 2% 8:00pm ET Wisconsin Big Ten +8
Nevada Mt West -13 -8 33% 3:30pm ET Buffalo Mid-Am -6
New Mexico Mt West -13 3 58% 3:00pm ET Wyoming Mt West -13
San Diego St Mt West -13 -17 13% 3:30pm ET Penn St Big Ten +8
San Jose St Mt West -13 -1 48% 10:30pm ET Fresno St Mt West -13
UNLV Mt West -13 0 50% 9:00pm ET Idaho St FCS
Utah St Mt West -13 0% Idle
Wyoming Mt West -13 -3 42% 3:00pm ET New Mexico Mt West -13
4-6, -48 Points (48) 4.2 Mt West Proj

 

Pac-12 Set at +10 as Intra-Conference Play Starts

The Pac-12 finished strong in non-conference play, surging to a tie with the SEC last week before going into conference play this week. The only game that could change the +10 ranking would be if Colorado did not destroy Nicholls State.

Team Conference Adj Pwin Time Opponent Opp Conf
Arizona Pac 12 +10 -3 40% 8:00pm ET UCLA Pac 12 +10
Arizona St Pac 12 +10 -2 47% 10:30pm ET USC Pac 12 +10
California Pac 12 +10 -5 37% 5:00pm ET Washington Pac 12 +10
Colorado Pac 12 +10 49 100% 1:30pm ET Nicholls St FCS
Oregon Pac 12 +10 13 80% 8:30pm ET Utah Pac 12 +10
Oregon St Pac 12 +10 -17 13% Fri 09.25 Stanford Pac 12 +10
Stanford Pac 12 +10 17 87% Fri 09.25 Oregon St Pac 12 +10
UCLA Pac 12 +10 3 60% 8:00pm ET Arizona Pac 12 +10
USC Pac 12 +10 2 53% 10:30pm ET Arizona St Pac 12 +10
Utah Pac 12 +10 -13 20% 8:30pm ET Oregon Pac 12 +10
Washington Pac 12 +10 5 63% 5:00pm ET California Pac 12 +10
Washington St Pac 12 +10 0% Idle
6-5, +49 Points 49 6.0 Pac-12 Proj

 

SEC Stuck in 2nd Place Unless Big 12 Falters

For the second straight season, the SEC started a touchdown better than any other conference but faltered on the field of play. No big inter-conference games remain to enable them to catch the Big 12.

Team Conference Adj Pwin Time Opponent Opp Conf
Alabama SEC +10 31 99% 4:00pm ET ULM SunB -14
Arkansas SEC +10 -6 35% 7:00pm ET Texas A&M SEC +10
Auburn SEC +10 2 53% 7:30pm ET Mississippi St SEC +10
Florida SEC +10 1 52% 3:30pm ET Tennessee SEC +10
Georgia SEC +10 53 100% 12:00pm ET Southern Univ FCS
Kentucky SEC +10 -5 37% 7:30pm ET Missouri SEC +10
LSU SEC +10 18 89% 12:00pm ET Syracuse ACC +8
Mississippi SEC +10 28 97% 7:00pm ET Vanderbilt SEC +10
Mississippi St SEC +10 -2 47% 7:30pm ET Auburn SEC +10
Missouri SEC +10 5 63% 7:30pm ET Kentucky SEC +10
South Carolina SEC +10 7 65% 12:00pm ET UCF Amer +0
Tennessee SEC +10 -1 48% 3:30pm ET Florida SEC +10
Texas A&M SEC +10 6 65% 7:00pm ET Arkansas SEC +10
Vanderbilt SEC +10 -28 3% 7:00pm ET Mississippi SEC +10
8.5-5.5, +109 points 109 8.5 SEC Proj

 

Sun Belt Hopes for 2 Big Upsets

No Sun Belt games look even. Each team is either favored by at least eight or underdogs by at least 11. If Arkansas State or South Alabama (both 11 point underdogs) could pull an upset the conference might catch the struggling Mountain West for 9th place.

Team Conference Adj Pwin Time Opponent Opp Conf
Appalachian St SunB -14 8 73% 3:30pm ET Old Dominion CUSA – 8
Arkansas St SunB -14 -11 25% 7:00pm ET Toledo Mid-Am -6
Ga Southern SunB -14 18 89% 9:00pm ET Idaho SunB -14
Georgia St SunB -14 0% Idle
Idaho SunB -14 -18 11% 9:00pm ET Ga Southern SunB -14
New Mexico St SunB -14 0% Idle
South Alabama SunB -14 -11 23% 8:00pm ET NC State ACC +8
Texas St SunB -14 -17 16% 8:00pm ET Houston Amer +0
Troy SunB -14 0% Idle
ULL SunB -14 10 73% 7:00pm ET Akron Mid-Am -6
ULM SunB -14 -31 1% 4:00pm ET Alabama SEC +10
3-4, -52 points (52) 3.1 SunB Proj


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