Breakthrough Analytics Allow Fans to Project Hoops Upset Margins

Auburn, AL

Newly created Value Add 3.0 Basketball now creates the equivalent of a Sagarin Projection Rating for all 4000 basketball players to enable quick projections on final scores in light of basketball players being injured or returning. DonBest updates injury status on all teams here.

Denzel Valentine is worth 8.68 points per game to Michigan State, and their Sagarin rating is actually 88.60 with him in the game and 79.91 when he does not play.  Therefore, the Spartans were actually a substantial underdog when they visited Iowa this week—as we walk through the math in the 3.0 system and the Iowa vs. Michigan State game here.

UNC’s Sagarin Rating is 90.35. However, that is being held down because star Marcus Paige (worth 5.95 points a game) was out the first six games, and now Kennedy Meeks (5.95 points per game) sits. The attached table showing all 351 team’s Sagarin ratings with and without players who have been or are injured indicates that UNC’s Sagarin in games Paige misses is 87.15, with both him and Meeks both on the court is 94.61, and with Meeks now out for some games is 91.87. The fact is UNC and Louisville are the to two teams in the country when at full strength.

We provide detail on the 1,000+ lines of code that went into the 3.0 version of the system that was first developed in 2011 is here—but unless you are going to the Analytics Convention at MIT in a couple of months you will probably appreciate this table, which let’s you look up DonBest to see if he lists any key players as injured, then look up the team on the Predictor for any of the 351 teams to see what the true Sagarin Predictor is with or without the player, add four points to the home team, and have your predicted score with the key player(s) properly weighted.

89.0 Sagarin = Sweet 16 team

82.0 = Makes NCAA Tournament. Notice UNC with Meeks and Paige is a national contender, but if both were out would barely be good enough to even make the tournament at 83.73.

79.0 = NIT. Notice a team that loses a player worth 4 points a game can drop from barely making the NCAA to not even making the NIT

75.0 = Makes one of the other tournaments (CBI/CIT)

Below 75.0 = No postseason bid

The following shows the 20 teams with the most riding on the injured or returning players. But all teams are listed in the table regardless of injuries, with a note on which of the above ranges they should fall into with or without the key players in question.

Rnk Team Injured Players worth 2+ Player’s value Sagarin w him w/o him
1 TCU Washburn, Chris 5.50 75.06 80.56 75.06
1 TCU Williams, Kenrich 6.01 75.06 81.07 75.06
1 TCU With Both, or Neither 86.57 75.06
2 North Carolina Paige, Marcus 5 5.95 90.35 93.09 87.15
2 North Carolina Meeks, Kennedy 3 4.93 90.35 91.87 86.94
2 North Carolina With Both, or Neither 94.61 83.73
3 Howard Collins, Damon 15 2.54 65.99 66.22 63.68
3 Howard Daniel, James 11 7.66 65.99 66.69 59.02
3 Howard With Both, or Neither 66.92 56.71
4 Wichita St. Shamet, Landry 11 5.96 82.46 87.23 81.27
4 Wichita St. VanVleet, Fred 23 4.21 82.46 83.72 79.51
4 Wichita St. With Both, or Neither 88.49 78.32
5 Vermont Wills, Dre 24 6.27 71.76 75.42 69.15
5 Vermont Steidl, Kurt 34 3.63 71.76 72.06 68.43
5 Vermont With Both, or Neither 75.72 65.82
6 Northwestern St. West, Jalan 12 9.84 62.06 70.26 60.42
7 Rutgers Diallo, Ibrahima 6.80 66.34 73.14 66.34
7 Rutgers Freeman, Deshawn 33 2.96 66.34 67.69 64.73
7 Rutgers With Both, or Neither 74.49 64.73
8 Arizona Smith, Ray 6.09 88.07 94.16 88.07
8 Arizona Tarczewski, Kaleb 35 3.55 88.07 90.25 86.71
8 Arizona With Both, or Neither 96.34 86.71
9 Iowa St. Long, Naz 5.01 87.17 92.18 87.17
9 Iowa St. Burton, Deonte 30 4.20 87.17 90.67 86.47
9 Iowa St. With Both, or Neither 95.68 86.47
10 Iona English, AJ 5 8.88 75.03 78.58 69.70
11 Michigan St. Valentine, Denzel 45 8.68 87.93 88.60 79.91
12 USC Jacobs, Julian 12 4.89 84.96 86.09 81.20
12 USC Boatwright, Bennie 25 3.70 80.68 85.24 81.55
12 USC With Both, or Neither 86.37 77.79
13 Auburn Purifoy, Danjel 6.00 76.22 82.22 76.22
13 Auburn Dunans, TJ 4 2.34 76.22 76.43 74.09
13 Auburn With Both, or Neither 82.43 74.09
14 Middle Tennessee Potts, Giddy 20 7.84 77.61 79.18 71.34
15 Northwestern Law, Vic 3.56 82.57 86.13 82.57
15 Northwestern Olah, Alex 22 4.07 82.57 82.88 78.81
15 Northwestern With Both, or Neither 86.44 78.81
16 Rhode Island Iverson, Kuran 23 1.48 80.08 80.08 78.60
16 Rhode Island Martin, Hassan 12 5.92 80.08 80.08 74.16
16 Rhode Island With Both, or Neither 80.08 72.67
17 North Dakota Hooker, Quinton 21 7.30 63.89 64.80 57.50
18 Utah St. Collette, David 7.04 74.81 81.85 74.81
19 Vanderbilt Justice, Camron 0 1.90 91.34 92.20 90.30
19 Vanderbilt Kornet, Luke 3 4.45 91.34 92.55 88.10
19 Vanderbilt With Both, or Neither 93.42 87.07
20 Wisconsin Dearring, Riley 2.43 79.39 81.82 79.39
20 Wisconsin Pritzl, Brevin 3.21 79.39 82.60 79.39
20 Wisconsin With Both, or Neither 85.03 79.39

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