Monmouth University Poll: Clinton Locked in Statistical Tie With Trump in Pennsylvania


A Monmouth University Poll released Wednesday found Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s support shrinking in must-win Pennsylvania, a state that’s gone blue in presidential elections since 1988.

Conducted after FBI Director James Comey re-opened his criminal investigation on Clinton on Friday, the poll shows Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump 48 percent to 44 percent in the Keystone State in a race that also includes third-party candidates. With the poll’s 4.9 percent margin of error, the two are in a statistical tie.

Her lead has decreased since October: Earlier, she led Trump 50 percent to 40 percent.

But Clinton’s lead was collapsing even before the FBI discovered possible new evidence in her criminal case.

“Clinton is still in the lead, but the race has tightened in the past four weeks. It looks like this shift was in the works even before Friday’s FBI bombshell, which has made only a small contribution to this overall narrowing,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

While four percent of voters said the renewed FBI probe will sway their vote, 89 percent said it will have no impact on who they vote for.

Among nonwhite voters, Clinton leads Trump 83 percent to nine percent. That’s a decline from 88 percent to five percent in October, suggesting that some minority voters are feeling disenchanted with her campaign.

In October, Trump was badly trailing Clinton among white women, with 55 percent supporting Clinton and 35 percent backing Trump. But in the span of weeks, Trump is nearly tied with Clinton among white female voters: She leads him only 48 percent to 45 percent.

White men support Trump over Clinton 55 percent to 37 percent. White voters are largely behind Trump, while significant numbers also back Clinton: Trump leads 50 percent to 43 percent among that demographic.

Pollsters surveyed 403 likely Pennsylvania voters from Oct. 29 to Nov. 1. The poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.