Outlier or Harbinger? Pennsylvania Poll Shows Trump Up by One Percent

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump delivers remarks about the Affordable Care Act at the DoubleTree by Hilton November 1, 2016 in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania. Trump and vice presidential nominee Mike Pence both highlighted what they see as the failures of Obamacare. (Photo by
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A poll from the Auto Alliance and Entertainment Software Association (ESA) finds Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by one percentage point in the key swing state of Pennsylvania.

The Auto Alliance polls roughly 5,000 car owners every month. Pollsters collected 175 responses each day in six states, conducting surveys on every night except for Fridays and Saturdays, for the presidential and Senate races.

In Pennsylvania, they found Trump leading Clinton by one percentage point in a three-day rolling poll.


Support is dependent on estimated turnout.

“The strong Democrat and the strong Republican models are based on turnout in elections where the respective parties were successful in getting out their vote,” pollsters note. “The Republican model largely mirrors the voting electorate from 2014, where voters were older and more conservative. The Democrat model mirrors the voting electorate in 2012, where the electorate had greater percentages of younger and minority voters.”

The survey may be an outlier.

Another poll conducted by Franklin & Marshall College found Clinton leading Trump in Pennsylvania by 11 percentage points in a race that also included third-party candidates. Yet another poll, conducted by Remington Research, found Clinton leading Trump by only two percentage points.

Pennsylvania has voted for Democratic presidential candidates since 1988 and holds 20 electoral votes.