Poll: Tight Races in Battlegrounds Arizona and Wisconsin

AP Photos/Patrick Semansky, Andrew Harnik

President Donald Trump and Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden are statistically tied in Arizona, while the former vice president leads in Wisconsin, a YouGov/CBS News poll released Sunday revealed.

The Arizona survey, taken October 13-16 among 1,064 registered voters, asked, “If the 2020 presidential election were being held today between Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, who would you vote for?”

Forty-nine percent of likely voters chose Biden, 45 percent selected Trump, three percent said “someone else,” and another three percent said they were unsure. Notably, Biden’s lead is just within the survey’s +/- 4.1 percent margin of error, indicating a statistical tie. The gap between the candidates narrows to just three percent among likely voters, including leaners, with Biden garnering 50 percent to Trump’s 47 percent.

When it comes to the coronavirus outbreak, 50 percent of likely voters in Arizona believed Biden would better handle the outbreak, compared to the 39 percent who chose Trump.

Arizona Trump voters list the economy, Supreme Court, and health care as “big” factors in voting for the president, while Arizona Biden voters overwhelmingly chose the coronavirus, health care, and race and race relations.

The YouGov/CBS News survey also analyzed the state of the presidential race in battleground Wisconsin, with Biden leading Trump 50 percent to the president’s 45 percent. Biden garners 51 percent to Trump’s 46 percent when leaners are included. In this survey, Biden’s lead is outside of the +/-3.5 percent margin of error:

Sunday’s RealClearPolitics (RCP) average had Biden up 3.9 percent in Arizona and 6.1 percent in Wisconsin.

In 2016, RCP had Trump winning Arizona by four percent. He went on to win the state by 3.5 percent. However, RCP’s final average also predicted Hillary Clinton defeating Trump in Wisconsin by 6.5 percent, but Trump went on to win by 0.7 percent.

Many recent surveys, particularly those analyzing the presidential race in crucial Rust Belt states, have Biden enjoying a solid lead over the president. However, as Breitbart News detailed, RCP’s final averages for Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania had Clinton winning those states by 6.5 percent, 3.6 percent, and 2.1 percent, respectively. However, Trump secured a narrow victory in each of those states:


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