Poll: Donald Trump Nears 60% Support Nationally as All GOP Challengers Fall into Single Digits

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Former President Donald Trump nears 60 percent of support on the national level as his primary and caucus opponents all fall to single digits, per an Emerson College poll. At the same time, he also holds a slim lead over President Joe Biden in a tight hypothetical general election race.

In the Republican presidential primary race, Trump takes 59 percent of the response, placing him more than 50 points above his nearest competitors. Former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) both register at eight points, with former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) on their heels at four percent.

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Vice President Mike Pence are also in reach of second place at three percent apiece. From there, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), conservative radio host Larry Elder, businessman Perry Johnson, and former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) all take one percent of the response. Another ten percent of respondents are undecided.

In a hypothetical match-up between the leading candidates of both major political parties, Trump holds a slight advantage over Biden at 47 percent to 45 percent, which barely falls in the ± 2.4 percent credibility interval. Eight percent of the respondents are undecided in this scenario. The poll’s crosstabs show Trump performs better with independents at 44 percent to 40 percent and holds an advantage with younger voters.

“While the poll reflects voters under 30 breaking for Biden by significant margins in 2020, 45% of voters under 30 support Trump in 2024 in this survey while 43% support Biden,” said Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball. “These voters are most likely to be undecided among all age groups, at 12%.”

The poll also gauged hypothetical match-ups between progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Trump, as well as a fictional race between failed 2012 presidential candidate and outgoing Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) and Biden.

Trump leads Sanders at 48 percent to 40 percent in their match-up and maintains a strong portion of voters under 30, according to Kimball.

“Even with progressive candidate Bernie Sanders on the ballot, the election is statistically similar among this group, 45% supporting Sanders and 42% Trump,” he said.

In a race between Biden and Romney, Biden leads by ten with 40 percent of the response to Romney’s 30 percent. Roughly three in ten voters are undecided.

Emerson College polling sampled 1,578 registered voters nationally from October 16 to 17, and the credibility interval for the full sample registers at ± 2.4 percentage points. It is likely higher among the GOP primary portion of the survey, though the number is not specified.


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