Polls: Republicans Within Striking Distance of Democrats in Key Senate Battleground Races

Kari Lake

Republican Senate candidates are within striking distance of vulnerable Democrats in several critical battleground states, according to a group of Siena College/New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer polls.

The string of polls out of Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — published Monday — showed Democrats leading, but Republicans were within five points in three states. The leading GOP candidate in the other state (Wisconsin) trailed by single digits:

ARIZONA (626 registered voters)

  • Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ): 45 percent
  • Former News Anchor Kari Lake (R): 41 percent
  • Don’t know/ refused to answer: 14 percent

NEVADA (614 registered voters)

  • Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV): 40 percent
  • Ret. Army Captain Sam Brown (R): 38 percent
  • Don’t know/ refused to answer: 23 percent

PENNSYLVANIA (1,023 registered voters)

  • Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA): 46 percent
  • Businessman Dave McCormick (R): 41 percent
  • Don’t know/ refused to answer: 13 percent

WISCONSIN (614 registered voters)

  • Sen Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) 49 percent
  • Businessman Eric Hovde (R) 40 percent
  • Don’t know/ refused to answer: 10 percent

All samples were collected between April 28 and May 9, and margins of error (MOE) range from ± 3.6 percentage points to ± 4.6 percentage points, depending on the state. The margin between Brown and Rosen in Nevada was well within the MOE, while Lake and McCormick were on the peripheries of the MOE in their respective contests, per a Times graphic.

While Republicans are competitive in these states, the poll finds former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, indicating a trend of ticket-splitting, as the Times noted.

Trump leads Biden in a hypothetical two-way race in Arizona, 49 percent to 42 percent. However, Gallego is backed by a larger percentage of Biden supporters (87 percent) than Lake is backed by Trump supporters (77 percent).

The trend continues in Nevada, where Trump leads Biden by double-digits in a two-way race, 50 percent to 38 percent. Despite Trump’s lead, Brown is backed by 69 percent of Trump supporters, while 84 percent of Biden voters support Rosen.

In Pennsylvania, the margin between Trump and Biden is tighter, with the 45th president in front at 47 percent to 44 percent. McCormick earns 79 percent of Trump supporters, while 88 percent of Biden voters are behind Casey.

Notably, Siena College, the New York Times, and the Philadelphia Inquirer did not conduct surveys in Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Virginia, or West Virginia, where Republicans also have key opportunities to flip Democrat seats red.


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