NYT Analysis: Support for Joe Biden Among Women Hits Lowest for Any Democrat Since 2004

President Biden Hosts Celebration Of Women's History Month At The White House
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President Joe Biden’s support among women is the lowest for any Democrat since 2004, a New York Times polling analysis found in June, while former President Donald Trump notched an eight-point lead over his opponent among the same demographic.

The analysis raises further concerns about the president’s chances of reelection in the wake of rising costs. Women, a key demographic for Democrats, make a large portion of buying decisions for their households, studies show.

Just four years ago, in 2020, Biden led Trump by 13 points among women. Now, Trump leads by eight points, a total gain of 21 points, according to the Times’s average of more than 30 polls conducted since January.

Biden’s soaring costs — over about 20 percent across the board — impacted the women’s vote, especially among black and Hispanic women, the analysis showed:

Mr. Biden’s current struggles with [b]lack and Hispanic women are especially striking. He is winning among [b]lack women in the KFF survey by 58 percentage points, but that represents a significant drop from his 86 percentage point margin among [b]lack women in the approach to the 2020 election, according to an average of New York Times/Siena College polls from that election. Mr. Biden’s lead with Hispanic women has also shrunk substantially, to about 12 points. The survey found Mr. Biden’s lead among women overall to be four points.

Inflation voters are more likely to be [b]lack or Hispanic than women overall. They are more likely to be middle-aged. In Michigan, nearly 60 percent of [b]lack women say inflation is the most important issue to their vote. A similar share of Hispanic women in Arizona say the same. For these women, inflation blows all other issues out of the water.

Overall, twice as many women say they were better off financially under Mr. Trump, the KFF surveys found. Young women, a key constituency that Democrats are hoping to retain this cycle, were nearly three times as likely to say things were better for them financially under Mr. Trump than Mr. Biden. Even so, 41 percent of young women said there was no difference between their financial situation between the two candidates. Half of [b]lack women also said there was no difference.

Trump’s growing strength among women is mirrored by his increased support among black and Hispanic voters, two more historically loyal demographics for Democrats.

Democrat inroads among those groups of voters deteriorated to the lowest point in 60 years, polling from Gallup and Siena College revealed in March. In turn, Hispanic and black men could vote for Trump in proportions not seen in American politics since the 1950s.

Thirty percent of black men and 11 percent of black women intend to vote for Trump in 2024, Wall Street Journal polling found in April. Only 12 percent of black men voted for Trump in 2020, voting data shows. There is no compatible 2020 polling for black men. In 2020, six percent of black women said they would vote for Trump, Associated Press polling found, five points fewer than the Journal’s 2024 polling.

Among Hispanics, Trump leads Biden by five points (39-34 percent), up 33 points (32 percent-65 percent) since 2020, a January USA Today/Suffolk University poll showed.

Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.


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