Brown’s chances have been speculative as the most recent poll, until today, was one from November which showed Brown trailing Coakley by 58-27 with 15% undecided. That’s changed since Rasmussen released their latest poll which shows Coakley’s lead sputtering:
State Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a nine-point lead over her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, in Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election to fill the seat of the late Edward M. Kennedy.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Coakley ahead of Brown 50% to 41%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
Validating what we all thought: that Scott Brown can win this race. Especially if you consider:
The health care issue is expected to play a big role in the debate and Massachusetts voters hold modestly favorable attitudes about the proposed legislation. In the Bay State, 53% favor the plan working its way through Congress and 45% oppose it.
However, as is the case nationally, those who feel strongly about the bill are more likely to be opposed. The overall figures include 36% who Strongly Oppose the plan while 27% Strongly Favor it.
This will be a referendum on fauxcare.
The independent voters is what will get Coakley:
Both candidates get better than 70% of the vote from members of their respective parties, but Brown leads 65% to 21% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.
This dovetails with earlier polling which showed that the number of people identifying themselves as Democrats is dropping; also it’s the rise of the independents. Independents are also the group which played the deciding role in the Virginia and New Jersey races last year. Democrats should have been paying attention:
The independent voters who powered President Obama and Democrats to victory in 2008 fled to Republicans in Tuesday’s elections, helping the GOP romp to a ticketwide sweep in Virginia and a stunning victory over an incumbent Democratic governor in New Jersey.
Virginia was a big state for Obama to win in ’08, too. Barely a year later it went red. Why? Because of independents:
The two gubernatorial contests have been deemed by some analysts as the first major referendum on President Obama’s administration. Republicans leaders, demoralized after landslide defeats in 2006 and 2008, have been hoping to capitalize on wins in Virginia and New Jersey to help fuel a nationwide Republican resurgence.
They were buoyed by a huge swing of independent voters to the Republican column.
The race in Massachusetts will be decided by independents – which doesn’t bode well for Coakley considering a) Brown leads with that voting bloc and b) as referenced above, the state is polling more conservative on issues that she in her platform.
Scott Brown is a vote to legislatively confirm that which voters have shown they desire by way of the polls. Coakley would sell out their interests and serve as nothing more than Reid, Pelosi, and Obama’s rubber stamp on fauxcare, cap-and-trade, and the further socialization of our private industries.
A perfect example of how all politics is local … except when the outcome decides the fate of a nation.