Assuming an increase from 2008’s D+5 turnout to D+8, Public Policy Polling has Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by one point in Ohio’s presidential race, 49/48.
Party ID breakdown among Ohio voters in 2008 was 37.5% Democrat, 32.5% Republican, and 30% Independent. A PPP survey released Saturday assumes an electorate that’s 42% Democrat, 34% Republican, and 23% Independent in 2012.
That means PPP projects indies’ representation in the electorate will drop 24% and Democrats’ will jump 12% compared to four years ago. The independents polled here lean to Romney by seven points (49/42).
The poll was conducted from October 18th to the 20th, allowing for reaction to Monday’s town hall debate. Though respondents stated Obama won the debate (48/39), his lead overall tightened by four points, down from a 51/46 spread the previous week with a D+4 sample size.
Despite the thumb on the scale for Obama, there’s plenty of good news for Romney. Even with this sample makeup, he continues to lead on the issue of the economy (51/47) with a 15-point lead among independents (54/39). And, in a reversal from the previous week, more voters in this sample trust him over Obama on the issue of Libya (49/47). 18% of Democrats said they trusted Romney more on Libya, while independents broke narrowly for Obama (48/45).
As reported previously, Romney’s favorability numbers have surged 30 points since February, buoyed by a 29-point positive shift with independents. Obama’s approval is negative at 48/50, with independents contributing strongly to that gap (41/54).